Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 021336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WESTERN UPPER MI. MID CLOUD THINNING OVER THE STRAITS REGION AND
EASTERN UPPER. HOWEVER...THE OPPOSITE TREND IS OCCURRING IN NE
LOWER MI. THE LAST VESTIGE OF NE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN PA IS DRAGGING ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS INTO APN/MIO/OSC.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED MAX TEMPS IN NE LOWER.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ALREADY NEARING OR PASSING 50F...AND HAVE BUMPED
UP MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE IN EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SWINGS
THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...IOWA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN
PORTION OF A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
MAKING IT WAY THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN ATTM...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA PER LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN APPEARS TO BE WINNING
OUT...HOLDING DEEP MOISTURE AND RESULTING CONVECTION SOUTH OF OUR
CWA OVER SRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THIS MORNING. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF LWR MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDDAY OR SO AS THE RESPONSIBLE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL MID CLOUD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR
ERN UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS SLIDING THRU OUR FAR SE CWA ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THAT
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...OVERALL SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THRU THE COLUMN. SHOULD BE
A RATHER NICE EARLY MAY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TO START THE
WORKWEEK TODAY...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

IMPACTS: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: CURRENT SETUP WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OUT WEST AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A MORE POSITIVE PNA SETUP BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL START
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV OVER MANITOBA
BRINGS AN INITIAL ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER REINFORCE THE TROUGHING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER MI
IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AS THE H5 OPEN WAVE STRENGTHENS INTO A
CUTOFF LOW. WITH THE AXIS INITIALLY OVER WI/LAKE MI...PVA AND WAA
WILL BE WELL PLACED TO INDUCE THE SFC LOW. THIS DEEP TROUGHING WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME SUB ZERO H8 AIR OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY BE USHERED OUT AS HEIGHT RISES FROM THE STRONG RIDGING TO
THE WEST BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING RAIN AND ANY THUNDER
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. QG ASCENT REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MAY STRING OUT
THE PRECIP CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...RIGHT NEAR CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT
EXPECTING HUGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST AREAS NEAR A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SPOTS JUST OVER. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT...HAVE BEEN DEBATING THUNDER CHANCES. THERE ARE SOME DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A FEW STABILITY PARAMETERS HINT AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...ENDING IT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE SHARP TROUGHING MOVES OVER MI...BUT WE
WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED...

SFC LOW AND H5 CUTOFF WILL MOVE OFF THURSDAY...GETTING TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGING WILL BE SETUP
THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER H5 CUTOFF LOW SETUP OVER CA/NV.
THIS WILL SETUP ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
FLATTENING THE RIDGING AND BREAKING DOWN THE BLOCK LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
BIT OF THUNDER AS IT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL START RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL PRODUCE
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAIN THE
RULE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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