Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR


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