Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 270113
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
913 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Cold front pushing into eastern upper MI. Most extensive precip is
in central lower MI (near/south of M-55), where leftover
convection has decayed to stratiform rain. A few showers are found
between that and the front itself, most notably a narrow band over
GLR. Back along the front itself, deep convection cooked off in
the ESC area, where substantial diurnal heating occurred north of
the more widespread cloud shield. This convection is presently
crossing Beaver Isl, and is the one thing on the scope that looks
capable of producing lightning.

Have been fine-tuning precip details in the gridded forecasts,
increasing pops in the far south and generally minoring out a
thunder mention in most areas. Am a little surprised to see
convection hold together as well as it has as it crosses northern
Lake MI. Short-range models are in agreement that instability
should be waning quickly in this area, and expect frontal band to
devolve into some weaker showers over the next 1-2 hours.

Regardless, prime forecast idea of pops ending from n to s tonight
is fine. Some potential for fog/low clouds to reform tonight, in
particular near/north of M-68, where clearing will be most
substantial.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Threat for rain lingers into this evening...

High impact weather potential...Still expecting a few thunderstorms,
although severe weather is not expected.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Rather moisture rich airmass layed out
across the region this afternoon, with stout upper level jet energy,
MCV enhanced mid level support, and down-low cold frontal dynamics
kicking off areas of showers/thunderstorms within this moisture
plume.

Overhead moisture axis will pivot slowly southeast across northern
lower Michigan tonight. Cold front does the same, and looks to
provide just enough support to drive some additional showers,
especially this evening. Drier and quieter weather follows for
Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges...Addressing those additional
shower and thunderstorm chances tonight.

Details...Current MCV enhanced area of showers/embedded
thunderstorms expected to continue to move steadily east, largely
exiting our area by later this afternoon. Corridor of less organized
showers looks to follow, with perhaps a touch of enhancement as
actual cold front arrives. Atmosphere will about completely worked
over before front arrives, so definitely not sold on shower coverage
heading into and through this evening. For the same reason, any
thunder should be limited and remain well below severe limits.
Drying becomes aggressive from north to south overnight, ending the
threat for showers in the process, and likely bringing some clearing
skies along with it. Given current rains, will need to be on the
lookout for fog/stratus development if skies do indeed clear. That
dry air continues to filter south Friday. Should be plenty of
sunshine, with just a few/scattered shallow cu during the late
morning and afternoon. Despite post-frontal northerly winds, all
that sun will give temperatures a nice boost, with afternoon
readings topping out in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Lots of sun...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A weakening surface trough will be found
over the far southern part of the forecast area Thursday evening.
This trough will wash out as a strong Canadian surface high builds
in from the north, pushing progressively drier air into northern MI.
Meanwhile, a potent digging shortwave and cutoff low will take a
sharp dive southeast from central Upper MI towards the Saginaw Bay
area by mid-morning Friday. This system will depart Friday afternoon
as a tilted upper ridge nudges into the Upper Great Lakes overtop
the surface high, ensuring a dry weekend ahead.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Models have been developing a small,
isolated blob of light QPF over our southeastern counties Thursday
evening. This would be associated with an axis of weak convergence
along the surface trough, and given the much drier air filtering in
from the north it seems very unlikely that an isolated shower would
develop. Worth keeping an eye on this possibility given last couple
runs of these models have been pretty consistent, but thinking it
will remain dry. Similar story for Friday morning. Pretty impressive
shortwave progged to drop through the forecast area Thursday night
into Friday morning, but again the dry air will really inhibit rain
chances across the area.

Otherwise very little sensible weather to talk about for the rest of
Friday into Saturday with strong subsidence over the region. Fairly
weak wind fields may allow lake breezes to develop Friday and
Saturday, so suppose the main forecast issue would be how much
diurnal cumulus may develop atop the well-mixed boundary layer. For
now, looking like plenty of sunshine both days, but perhaps a better
chance of popping some fair wx cu over parts of northern Lower on
Friday before the surface high sits overhead on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal aside from a slight chance of
thunderstorms across northern Lower Michigan on Monday.

Little in the way of concern presents itself through the majority of
the extended forecast period as an expansive area of high pressure
centered across the Great Lakes/Midwest will provide dry weekend
weather with near-normal temperatures through Sunday night. While
guidance differences prevail early next week, at least a threat for
scattered showers and thunderstorms returns during the day Monday as
a weak frontal boundary slowly sinks north to south across the
forecast area. High pressure then returns Monday night-Tuesday
before the next wave approaches during the day Wednesday.

High temperatures generally within a few degrees on either side of
normal...ranging from the mid-upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Some MVFR to IFR cigs this evening. Some overnight fog PLN.

Cold front moving into northern MI this evening. Most of the
precip is well ahead of the front in central lower MI, though some
showers have formed closer to the front. Also spotty low cigs are
seen ahead of the front, and could potentially impact all the TAF
sites at times this evening. Some fog/stratus potential behind the
front as skies clear tonight, especially at PLN. VFR on Thursday
as high pressure takes control.

Ongoing w to sw winds will become north by Thursday. Thursday
will be a bit breezy at times.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will become light
northerly overnight as a cold front slowly makes its way southeast
across the big waters. North to northeast winds continue Thursday
through Friday, becoming a bit gusty a times. Current trends support
light winds and dry weather through the upcoming weekend.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MB


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