Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
131 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Issued at 1042 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Forecast is on track for the most part. More record or near record
heat expected today with highs of well into the 80s to around 90.
Looking at model soundings there isn`t any evidence of a cap which
is a little worrisome. However...there may not be a trigger to
spark convection due to the hot temperatures either. Am a little
concerned about ACCAS to the northwest and southeast (an indicator
of mid level instability). The weakest surface pressure gradient
is across southeast zones so maybe a lake breeze off of Lake Huron
could be the trigger for a storm or two to form this afternoon.
Therefore...have added in a slight chance down there. Will be
monitoring surrounding radars and satellite imagery as the APX
radar is down for an equipment upgrade for much of this week.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Record-setting warmth continues today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure and dry air remain
over much of the northeastern quadrant of the US early this
morning...with the pronounced upper level ridge axis aligned within
this same area. Extended period of unseasonably warm temps and dry
conditions continue across this entire region. Closest convection
remains well upstream along and just behind a persistent inverted
trough extending from Texas thru the Central Plains to near the
Arrowhead of Minnesota. Temps and dwpts have cooled into the upper
50s and lower 60s across much of our CWA...resulting in the
development of some patchy fog early this morning.

For today and tonight...strong subsidence...dry air thru the column
and a rather strong mid level cap will continue to keep any chances
of precip at bay. Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook agrees with
this... keeping general thunder west of our CWA along and ahead of
the inverted trough.

Expect yet another hot lake September day....with several locations
again matching or breaking max temp records today. Afternoon highs
will range from the mid 80s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the upper
80s/around 90 across Northern Lower Michigan. Overnight lows will
cool to a few degrees either side of 60.

    Record (Year)
GLR   76 (1958)
TVC   89 (1908)
APN   85 (1935)
ANJ   83 (1908)
HTL   91 (1920)
PLN   80 (2007)


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Warm Tuesday before cooling down midweek...

High Impact Weather Potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday night.

Pattern Forecast: Persistent upper level ridging across the eastern
two thirds of the CONUS gradually begins to break down Monday night
into Tuesday, which will allow for energy associated with western
troughing to lift through the upper Mississippi Valley into Ontario.
Disorganized surface low pressure will ride northeastward along an
attendant cold front expected to sweep across the region Tuesday
night into early Wednesday, bringing substantial height falls into
the Great Lakes by for the middle and end of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Potentially record breaking
temperatures continue at a few locations Tuesday, followed by a
chance for a bit of much needed rainfall for some locations late
Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Warm temperatures continue Tuesday in what is expected to be the
sixth consecutive day of potentially record breaking highs. It`s
unlikely that all six climate stations once again break a record,
but certainly a couple records could fall as highs top out from 75-
80 across eastern upper and from the mid-upper 80s south of the

Tuesday current records:

ANJ: 84(1908)
GLR: 80(1999)
HTL: 89(1920)
TVC: 88(1908)
APN: 88(1920)
PLN: 83(1973)

An increasing scattered shower threat arrives Tuesday evening
through early Wednesday as an approaching cold front is set to slide
across northern Michigan; however, latest trends continue to look
unfavorable for much of northern Michigan to see appreciable
rainfall due to a thinning deep layer moisture axis ahead of the
front (despite rather high Pwats) and the greatest forcing
pinwheeling northeastward into Ontario. Eastern Upper and the Tip of
the Mitt continue to look to have the better chance, though precip
coverage is still expected to be scattered in nature. Wouldn`t rule
out a couple rumbles of thunder Tuesday night, but given the
nocturnal passage of the front, limited instability should preclude
widespread thunder. Any lingering showers early Wednesday quickly
diminish with thinning clouds giving way to partly sunny skies. Much
cooler temperatures, although still near normal, are expected to
prevail as high temperatures top out 20-30 degrees cooler than was
seen this past weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Significantly cooler temperatures will headline the extended forecast
period as high temperatures fall to below normal readings Thursday
through Saturday. A reinforcing shot of cool air aloft should result
in the coolest days being Friday and Saturday with high temps
struggling to reach the upper 50s to low 60s degrees. The
combination of mid level perturbations passing through the northern
tier of the CONUS and lake processes beginning to ramp up late this
week, the possibility of showery periods re-enters the forecast at
various times late Thursday through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The large upper level ridge will remain across the region through
much of Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night.
Very warm conditions will continue through the taf period. Just a
few cu today...with an outside chance of a storm this afternoon
near APN due to a breeze off of Lake Huron. Otherwise, no issues
anticipated except for any patchy fog that may develop late
tonight/early Tuesday.


Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Tuesday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Monday night. Chances of precip will increase Tuesday and Tuesday
night as a cold front sweeps thru Michigan.




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