Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 120731
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Ogemaw Fuel Breaks...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on March 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Elevated humidity and light winds expected at
ignition time. Well above normal temperatures and somewhat
limited low low level moisture will allow relative humidity values
to steadily decrease later this morning and afternoon, with
readings likely reaching near or a bit below 40 percent. Southwest
winds will be on the increase across the burn location, with gusts
likely exceeding critical levels at times this afternoon. Good to
excellent rh recovery expected tonight. Rain-free weather will
continue.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 20 to 26
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2600-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (2600.0) increasing to excellent
                    (77000.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  43  41  38  35  37  39  41  41  42  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  35  38  44  51  54  60  63  64  64  65
RH..............89  89  85  70  59  57  47  43  40  41  38
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..5   5   8   8   8   13  13  13  15  15  15
20 ft wind gust.6   6   13  13  13  18  18  18  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.3 3.9
Haines index....5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   8   7   8   9   10  13  16  20  23  26
Vrate kt-ft.....3400320026003600680012K 19K 33K 51K 77K 103K
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

$$
Forecaster...MSB
Requested by...Jack Money
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406242.0/APX
.DELDT 03/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL moneyj@michigan.gov


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