860
FXUS63 KDDC 200700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread low stratus clouds are expected Monday morning.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible along I-70 Monday
  night/Tuesday morning.

- Cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted severe thunderstorms
in progress in NW Oklahoma, just south of the KS/OK border. These
storms are expected to remain south of Barber county, and all
storms are done for the night. Surface observations revealed
light E/SEly upslope flow, supporting moisture advection
northwestward back into SW KS. This moisture will manifest
itself as a widespread stratus deck through Monday morning, with
strong consensus from the short range models of low stratus
being common by 7 am. Given stratus and moisture advection,
minimum temperatures will again be above normal in the upper 50s
and lower 60s.

Stratus will erode from south to north in the strong late May sun
on Monday, but exactly how quickly the stratus clears will have
an impact on afternoon temperatures. Feel 00z NAM is too cold,
but did trim inherited highs of the lower 90s back to the upper
80s for most zones. Temperatures at 4 pm Monday will range from
near 80 along I- 70, to the upper 90s in the far southwest
zones. Winds will be trend light SEly through the afternoon, in
response to a new surface cyclone deepening in SE Colorado. 00z
NAM shows instability building strongly, especially adjacent to
Oklahoma, as the stratus clears midday and afternoon. CAMs,
which performed very well Sunday with the stronger forcing, are
very quiet Monday and resistant to developing any convection. As
such, all grids are dry through 7 pm Monday, with the
expectation of the capping inversion holding through at least
the daytime hours.

SE Colorado surface low at 7 pm Monday, will move northeast, to
near Syracuse at midnight, and near Wakeeney 7 am Tuesday.
Moisture and instability will be strong over the eastern
counties Monday evening, but again the expectation is for this
airmass to remain capped and quiet, with any storms relegated to
areas northeast of Hays, near the KS/NE border. Both 00z
NAM/GFS warm 700 mb temperatures to the 13-14C range Monday
evening, which will ensure most if not all locations will remain
capped and dry. Models depict the next strong shortwave
arriving along the KS/CO border around 7 am Tuesday, out of
phase with the diurnal heating cycle, which will also work
against convective development. Marginal 5% wind/hail SPC
probabilities across northern zones would most likely verify
after midnight Tuesday morning, as the surface low and shortwave
eject into Kansas. Given the nocturnal timing, significant
severe wind/hail is not expected, and model guidance is very
resistant in generating convective QPF.

Dryslot will overspread SW KS Tuesday, as the strong shortwave
ejects into the upper Mississippi valley. Behind the associated
cold front, winds will trend west, then northwest, and then
finally north, ushering in cooler, drier and much more stable
air. Forecast Tuesday is dry for all zones. Only minor cool
advection is forecast, allowing afternoon temperatures to remain
in the 80-90 range. Again, felt MOS guidance was too cool, with
NWly downslope masking any cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Strong cold front for late May standards will push through SW KS
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with elevated north winds
ushering in cooler and drier air. NBM remains consistent with
other guidance, forecasting the coolest day of this week to be
Wednesday. Cool advection will lower sunrise temperatures into
the 40s for many zones sunrise Wednesday, with many locations
remaining in the 70s Wednesday afternoon. A comfortable spring
day will be enjoyed with few if any clouds by afternoon.

The next closed cyclone will be associated with the northern
branch of the jet stream, centered near eastern Oregon 7 pm
Wednesday. EPS/GEFS ensemble members eject this system well to
the north, into the Dakotas, 7 pm Thursday. Southerly flow will
return in response on Thursday across the plains, with
associated moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, and the
reestablishment of a north-south oriented dryline along the
length of the high plains. Primary forcing for ascent will
clearly be well to the north in the Dakotas, but can`t rule out
diurnally generated isolated convection in the dryline
circulation during peak heating, and kept low pops offered by
the NBM.

Associated with the Dakotas shortwave, the next cold front is
expected to advance through SW KS Friday, with more north winds
and cooler temperatures. NBM looks too warm here, with 00z MEX
much cooler, with highs only in the lower 70s at DDC Friday.
Indeed, 00z GEFS ensemble member probability of max temperatures
greater than 80 across much of SW KS Friday is < 50%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Thunderstorms have ended across SW KS as of 0330z Mon. Strong
consensus of short term models is for IFR stratus to spread
rapidly to all airports through 12z Mon, in response to a strong
moisture return on light moist easterly upslope flow. Some
reduced visibility in BR/FG is possible, but the high confidence
is with the stratus. After 15z Mon, stratus is expected to
dissolve from south to north, with VFR returning to all
airports. Light winds will trend light SEly through 00z Tue.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner