Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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679 FXUS63 KDDC 152322 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 622 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are possible along the southern tier of counties tonight. These could be severe with hail up to golf ball size and 60 mph gusts. - A long stretch of warm and mainly dry weather will begin Thursday and extend into next week. - Surges of downslope flow could result in highs in the 90s Monday and Tuesday, with the hotter readings confined to the southern tier of counties from Elkhart to Coldwater. - Any thunderstorms early to mid next week will be isolated, with most of central and southwest Kansas staying dry. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for Stafford, Kiowa, Pratt, Clark, Comanche and Barber counties though 1 AM CDT. Although a Tornado is possible in the early stages of the watch period, the main risks are up to 2.5 inch hail and 80 mph wind gusts with supercells and multicell clusters. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A cluster of t-storms will form along the Raton Mesa in northeast NM due to post frontal upslope flow as an upper level disturbance approaches this afternoon. These storms will form into a large cluster and move eastward, skirting the southern tier from Elkhart to Coldwater, but most severe part of the line will most likely stay south of the KS/OK state line. Other isolated storms could form out ahead of this storm cluster over south central Kansas, but these could also stay just south of the border where the better instability resides. But thunderstorms could form in Oklahoma first and then propagate into south central Kansas around Medicine Lodge and Coldwater. Otherwise, scattered non-severe convection is possible across southwest Kansas overnight as the disturbance passes. Thursday should be precipitation free as the disturbance passes to the east of the area, with highs in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 An upper level trough will traverse the northern plains this weekend and help push a weak front through southwest Kansas Saturday morning. Highs will warm into the 80s Friday as winds return to southerly. This front will prevent highs from reaching well into the 90s Saturday, but 80s to near 90 are still possible. Nocturnal thunderstorms are a slight possibility Saturday night along I-70 as a low level jet impinges on a mid level thermal gradient. Low amplitude upper level troughing will develop across the western USA by Sunday through Tuesday, with broad west-southwesterly mid level flow across the Rockies. A fast moving disturbance is advertised to eject northeastward across the central plains ahead of the main trough by late Monday or Tuesday. This is not a favorable pattern for precipitation across western Kansas and any organized t- storm activity will likely be well to the northeast where the rich low level moisture will reside. In May, it normally takes a slow moving and deep upper level trough over the Rockies to get organized rounds of thunderstorms. An isolated, severe storm can`t be ruled out starting Monday, especially across central Kansas along and ahead of a dry line and weak frontal zone where high theta-e air will be confined beneath a capping inversion. Probabilistically, the various ensemble means indicate that chances for .5" or greater of precipitation are much below 10 percent for the weekend and into early to mid next week. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that widespread beneficial rains will occur through at least Tuesday. Day to day temperatures will depend on the exact location of the frontal boundary. But generally, the hot weather will be confined to locations south of the front along the Oklahoma state line, with afternoon readings well into the 90s. Cooler afternoon readings in the 80s are most likely along I-70. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A cold front will be the focus area for convective development this late afternoon and early evening. The better airmass for severe storms including 80 mph wind gusts and 2+ inch hail is east of DDC and south of highway 400. Still, LBL and to a lesser degree DDC might see scattered convection with VFR to MVFR cbs through the early evening hours. A severe thunderstorms watch is in effect through 1 am CDT for the highway 283 corridor and Ashland to Greensburg. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Russell SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Russell