Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
182 FNUS73 KDLH 052014 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for Island Lake RX...USFS National Weather Service Duluth MN 314 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... Monday should be a mostly sunny day with no chance for precipitation until the evening hours. We will see a day with ample mixing, increasing to near 5000 feet by mid afternoon with excellent smoke dispersal. This will allow stronger southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph in the afternoon. The occasional stronger gust up to 25 mph is possible, especially on the northern side of the nearby lake. This good low level mixing will also make for good drying in the afternoon, with relative humidity dropping into the mid 30 percent range. Rain should begin to arrive in the late evening hours, continuing through Tuesday. Around of half inch of rain is expected by Tuesday night. .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 69. Min humidity........37 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 13 mph. Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 24 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (59900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (81700-102100 knot-ft) late in the morning. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC PC PC PC MC MC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............60 62 63 65 67 68 68 69 RH..............47 44 44 41 39 39 39 37 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 20 FT wind gust.18 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.7 Transp wind dir.S S S SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.22 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100060 82 94 98 100 102 100 98 .MONDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the evening. Chance of rain showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 50. Max humidity........77 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 1600 ft AGL early in the evening. Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (62900-89800 knot-ft) decreasing to fair to good (17800-30900 knot-ft) early in the evening. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 20 30 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............68 64 56 54 52 51 RH..............40 45 57 61 69 74 20 ft wind......SE 12 SE 13 SE 17 SE 17 SE 16 SE 16 20 ft wind gust.19 21 23 23 23 23 Mix hgt (ft)....4300 1600 1200 1200 1300 1400 Transport wind..SE 25 SE 20 SE 22 SE 20 SE 21 SE 23 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100090 31 20 19 22 26 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......90 percent. LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 59. Min humidity........72 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to around 26 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 25 mph decreasing to around 15 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (24000-37100 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.42 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).40 90 90 90 80 80 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 Temp............51 53 55 56 56 55 RH..............77 77 74 74 74 74 20 ft wind......SE 17 SE 18 E 17 E 16 E 15 E 13 20 ft wind gust.25 26 26 25 23 20 Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1700 1700 1800 2000 2100 Transport wind..SE 21 SE 24 SE 22 SE 20 SE 17 SE 16 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100029 36 33 31 30 29 $$ Forecaster...Ketzel Requested by...Angela Schmitt Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413212.0/DLH .DELDT 05/05/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL angela.schmitt@usda.gov