792
FNUS73 KDLH 111315
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Garden Oak Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
815 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 12.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday along with
low chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the
early afternoon hours. However, model guidance has been trending
further south with this activity and the burn site may remain dry
through the day. Afternoon RH values are currently forecast to
fall to around 30 to 35 percent, but should the showers and storms
remain to the south, these may trend lower to around 25 percent.
Winds during the morning will be southwesterly at 6 to 12 mph
before turning northwesterly in the wake of a cold front that will
move through during the late morning hours. Winds will then
increase to 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts to around 20 mph.

Monday will see mostly sunny and dry conditions with afternoon RH
values falling to around 35 percent. Winds will be northerly at 5
to 15 mph.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL increasing to 5300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to 2800 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 15
                    to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (29900-38600 knot-ft) increasing
                    to good to excellent (51900-71200 knot-ft)
                    early in the afternoon, then increasing to good
                    to excellent (53800-79700 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to good (36000 knot-ft)
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR
Weather cov.....            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   3   3   3   2   2
Temp............65  69  71  73  74  75  74  74
RH..............54  47  42  38  35  34  34  33
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   9   9   10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.15  14  14  14  14  14  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.8 4.0 5.1 5.3 4.8 3.8 2.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  16  17  17  16  15
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100030  39  52  71  80  72  54  36

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1800-19400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR PCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............2      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............73     63     54     49     46     43
RH..............33     41     54     63     65     67
20 ft wind......NW 8   N 7    N 5    N 5    N 5    N 5
20 ft wind gust.13     11     8      8      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   800    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..N 13   N 9    N 7    N 8    N 8    N 7
Haines index....4      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100019     6      3      3      3      3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700-12200 knot-ft) increasing to good
                    (44400-51100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     47     54     59     61     60
RH..............73     68     54     44     38     37
20 ft wind......N 5    N 6    N 8    N 9    N 9    N 10
20 ft wind gust.8      9      13     14     14     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1500   3700   4600   4900   4600
Transport wind..N 7    N 9    N 12   N 10   N 10   N 13
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10002      12     37     41     44     51

$$
Forecaster...Bryan
Requested by...Joseph Eucolono
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413768.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joseph.f.eucolono@usda.gov