Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO
THE REGION...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST BARELY BRUSHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA WITH QPF UNTIL AFTER 21Z...AND EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER
06Z.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL 18Z...A LEAD SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV?/
MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z FRIDAY WITH OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WILL TIME PCPN IN WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...AND INTO THE EAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. HAVE GONE MORE WITH SHOWERS AND ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAPE.

WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2
INCHES SO LOOKING AT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES
START OUT FAIRLY SMALL AROUND 5 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST FORCING AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA SO HAVE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
THERE...CLOSING IN ON 1 INCH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE THE ESF FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT
PRECLUDES HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THOUGH LOCAL
URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH VERY MOIST FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONE COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NNE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
MOISTURE/WAA SURGE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SAY ON TEMPS AND ALSO
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS TRENDING DRIER TOWARDS MIDDAY
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO SHOW QPF BUT IN A MORE DISORGANIZED FASHION.
SO TRENDED POPS A BIT LOWER AFTER THE MORNING ROUND SHIFTS AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CVA AND
SURFACE/850 FRONTS DRAW CLOSER. STILL SEEING SIGNALS FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TALLER SKINNY CAPE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.9-2.0 AND PERIODS OF MBE VELOCITIES AOB 10 KTS. OUR QPF SHOWS
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR SE CWA TO OVER 2
INCHES IN THE NW CWA.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WORKS IN THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH TAKING
HOLD. THE HIGH DOES SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW GETTING BACK UNDERWAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. GFS BARELY HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR
SOUTH BUT WILL PLAN ON THIS BEING A DRY PERIOD WITH BETTER FORCING
HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING HIGHLY DYNAMICAL
NEGATIVELY TILT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS IS A SMIDGE
QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN ON SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST FORCING
SIGNAL COMES LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NOT BEST
TIME FOR TAPPING INTO AVAILABLE MLCAPE...BUT AGAIN THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME DYNAMIC PUNCH TO IT. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG AT A
BETTER CLIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH
SPRAWLING RIDGE IN THE SRN STATES. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE/850 HIGH IN CONTROL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED/H8 LLJ STAYING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WATCHING FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF EVEN MORE WITH ONSET
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT KMSN AND 21Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



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