Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041116
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
716 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MI MOVES VERY
LITTLE TODAY OR SLOWLY MOVES BACK WESTWARD AND WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN CWA TODAY.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES
OVERALL. DID ADD IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY AND SOME EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD
OCCUR TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE ERN CWA. THIS WAS THE ONLY CHANGE THAT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS THE PCPN THREAT TONIGHT. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE WEST
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ON SATURDAY...DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS YEILDS BUILDING RIDGE
FM SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS REST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SFC
FRONT WILL BE ON FRONT EDGE OF TROUGH...RUNNING FM GREAT BASIN INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. SW FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW SHORTWAVE WITH SHRA/TSRA TO GRAZE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
CLOSER TO EDGE OF 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE AND WITH WSW STEERING FLOW H85-
H3. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO LEAD TO BUILDUP OF MLCAPES...THOUGH
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA FM DAYTIME
HEATING ALONE. SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE WEST WORK ATTM. MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF PLAINS TROUGH AND H85
TEMPS 18-20C. SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY ON LOW SIDE AS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR STAYS MAINLY BLO 30 KTS...THOUGH IT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
LK SUPERIOR.

SHORTWAVE WITH SOURCE TO THE NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR BAHA
PENINSULA FORECAST TO TRACK TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CONUS. QUITE THE JOURNEY AND PROBABLY WILL BE SOME AFFECTS
FM THE SHORTWAVE AND SMALLER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES OVER
THE PLAINS AS MAIN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH 0-3KM MUCAPES 1000-
2000J/KG. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STEERING WINDS
COULD ADVECT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF UPPER LAKES OVER
AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CWA. HESITANT TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT APPEARS STRONGEST LIFT TRACKS MORE NORTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY PER H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ALSO STAYS
MAINLY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER CNTRL PLAINS CLOSER TO H85 LOW-
LEVEL JET AND THETA-E RIDGE. MLCAPES BUILD UP TO OVER 1000J/KG BUT
HIGHER VALUES ARE MAINLY MN-WI...AND FAR WEST CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST CWA STAYING BLO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN AFTN. A
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TO 20C BY 18Z-
24Z. UNLESS CLOUDS ARE MORE OF AN ISSUE...INCREASING S-SW WINDS SFC-
H85 AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES
MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN H85 DWPNTS
13-18C...EXPECT DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND PROBABLY LOW 70S OVER
AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. THANKFULLY THIS EXTENSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE INTO MONDAY.

DEEP TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND ANOTHER SFC LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF
CWA AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THAT
IDEA. KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. PWATS UP TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
RECORD VALUES PER SOUNDING PWAT CLIMO FM SPC. STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHRA AND TSRA. IN A
GENERAL SENSE...SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH
ELEVATED CAPES LESS THAN 1000J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT AND 30+ KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND SFC-H85 WIND SHIFT. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14KFT AND CORFIDI
VECTORS UNDER 10 KTS AND SUGGESTING BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL...THINK
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL COMPLETELY THOUGH AS 0-1KM SHEAR IS OVER 20 KTS AND
INCREASINGLY PERPENDICULAR TO FRONT MOVING THROUGH. STRONG H85 JET
NOSING IN AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE FLUX AND CONVERGENCE. OVERALL THOUGH THINK
THE SEVERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAN HEAVY RAIN.

FRONT CLEARS KISQ AND KERY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTN. DRY AIR TAKES OVER
FOR THE WEST HALF AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. H85 TEMPS DROP OFF
SOME...BUT SOME AREAS OF CNTRL MAY STILL SNEAK UP TO AROUND 80. 70S
ELSEWHERE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MINOR CHANCE OF RAIN LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT NOW
APPEARS BETTER CHANCES STAY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. MAIN STORY IN THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. LOW TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT AND CORE OF COOLEST AIR MOVES
ACROSS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS. LOW 60S NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STAYING COOL ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE 60S EXPECTED. QUITE THE DIFFERENCE FM THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN FOG
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AND KSAW. WILL GET DOWN TO
MVFR FOR VIS TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IN LATER ISSUANCES IF A
LOW CEILING DEVELOPS WHICH COULD BECOME IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT
NOW FOR THAT TO HAPPEN FOR TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT
WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT
WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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