Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 230610
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
210 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to bring widespread rain to the region
today. Rain exits by this afternoon and winds will become gusty
until high pressure arrives on Sunday to provide dry weather
for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Widespread rain continues through this morning.

2. Gusty winds expected tonight.

Widespread rain is ongoing this morning and this will continue
through daybreak. Rain coverage and intensity will taper off
through late morning as the associated surface low moves
northeast of the area. Rainfall rates generally in the 0.10" to
0.20" per hour, therefore just a beneficial rain with no flood
concerns.

By Saturday afternoon, the wind should become gusty as the rain
subsides and skies begin to clear. Gusts could exceed 40 mph
along the southern Blue Ridge and 30 mph elsewhere on Saturday
evening, and there could be a few downed trees and power lines
due to the combination of wet soil and the expected wind gusts.

High temperatures today warm into the 50s and low 60s ahead of
the front. Colder tonight, bottoming out in the mid/upper 20s
and low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather expected for this period.

2) Gusty northwest winds for Saturday night, calming on Sunday.

Looking at the start of Saturday night, rain will have exited
the region to the east in the wake of a cold frontal passage
earlier in the day. Rapid pressure rises as high pressure builds
in will bring another round of strong wind gusts from the
northwest, possibly reaching 45 mph at times along the Blue
Ridge and other ridgetops. Wind speeds are expected to diminish
by morning as high pressure ridging settles along the
Appalachian chain.

Expect abundant sunshine both Sunday and Monday as high
pressure remains over the lower Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals for the second half of March,
though did reduce afternoon highs by a degree or two from model
guidance given easterly windflow off the Atlantic. Expect
increasing clouds Monday evening into the overnight as another
cold front approached from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Likely chances for rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

2) Lower confidence in rain for Thursday, dry weather expected
for Friday.

3) Near seasonal temperatures expected for late March.

Low pressure shifting from the central Plains toward the
western Great Lakes on Monday night will draw an associated
cold front eastward from the Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday
to reach the central Appalachians by Wednesday morning. This
will bring our next chance of rain for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. However, with no fetch of deep moisture ahead of the
front, rainfall amounts at this point do not appear to by
impressive, with most locations receiving less than a half
inch.

Long range weather forecast models are hinting at the
possibility of a wave of low pressure developing along the
Florida Atlantic coast on Thursday, which may radiate additional
rainfall inland across the Mid-Atlantic as it passes up the
coast. Low confidence on how this will play out at this point,
with precipitation possibly not making it much further west than
the I-95 corridor through Thursday night. Friday is expected to
be dry as high pressure returns.

Near-seasonable temperatures are expected through the period.
Overnight lows will generally hold above freezing, with
Wednesday night offering the best chance for temperatures to
fall below freezing, mainly across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT saturday...

Poor flying weather due to low cigs will continue with the rain
through this morning. Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs and occasional
vsby reductions due to heavier rain and patchy fog. A front
moves east allowing winds to turn northwest and will begin to
gradually dry out later today. Still could see lingering MVFR
at BLF through this evening.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon and tonight from the
northwest around 20-25kts. Mountain terminals may have gusts
exceeding 30kts after 00z tonight.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Good flying weather is expected for Sunday and Monday. Clouds
should increase on Tuesday, but conditions should remain VFR. A
low pressure system will arrive during Tuesday night into
Wednesday to bring the next chance of rain and IFR/MVFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG/WP/AS


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