Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 021214
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO TUE THEN RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS
WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY A
WETTER AND COOLER TREND IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE NORTH THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAGLE TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ISOLATED WEST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM ATIGUN PASS
TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM MON...AND
THEN DISSIPATE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED EAST OF THIS TROUGH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

SURFACE...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
BARROW BY 4PM SUN...TO 80 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1006 MB LOW
BY 4AM MON...AND TO BANKS ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.
A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PRUDHOE
BAY TO BARROW TO THE LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND FROM INUVIK TO THE LOW
BY 4AM MON. EXPECT .25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT SW WINDS 20-30KT JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DIMINISHING TO WEST 20 KT SW OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A SECOND LOW LOW MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM
MON...WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM MON...AND TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY
4AM TUE...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4PM TUE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF BARROW TO
POINT HOPE BY 4AM MON...AND TO JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO
NUIQSUT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM TUE...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO POINT
HOPE BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT.

A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON. THIS WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH WEST WINDS TO
PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MON.

A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM MON. AFTER THAT TIME
THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. PREFER THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
SEA LEVEL FROM BARROW WEST WILL RISE ONE FT WITH MODERATE SURF SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% TODAY...ABOVE 30% MON...AND NEAR 30% TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
EXPECT.25-.50 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB AUG 15


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