Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 300008
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The main deterministic models are in fair to good agreement on
the larger scale pattern over the upcoming week, with some subtle
differences in the timing and position of individual features
toward the latter half of the week. Dominant upper high pressure
at 575 dm centered over Kotzebue Sound will drift northeast into
the Chukotsk Peninsula by late Monday morning, and into northern
Siberia by early Wednesday. Broad low pressure over the southern
Bering sea will gradually shift eastward over the Gulf of Alaska
by early Thursday. A 532 dm high over the high arctic will round
the top of the ridge and descend south to near Demarcation Point
by early Thursday. A shortwave will slide south across the west
coast of the state Thursday into Thursday night, with troughing
extending over the northern half of the state late in the week.

North Slope: At the surface, A 1036 mb high pressure centered 300
miles north of Demarcation Point will move near Banks Island by
early Monday morning. A 1021 mb high 300 miles northwest of
Wrangle Island will gradually drift southeast into the Chukchi Seaby
Monday afternoon at 1028 mb. A 1012 mb low centered near 80 N 135
W Tuesday morning will drift south to around 150 miles north of
Demarcation Point by Wednesday afternoon. Current thinking is that
lower stratus which continues to hug the coast will scatter out
for most locations by late this evening, as low level wind
trajectories just above the surface turn more southeasterly. Fair
weather is expected then for Monday and Tuesday, before
aforementioned surface low settling near Demarcation Point
Wednesday brings a return to stratus and scattered rain or snow
showers Wednesday into Thursday. Marginal small craft advisories
will remain from Point Barrow east...gradually ending from west to
east tonight into Monday morning as pressure gradient weakens with
high pressure sliding toward northern Canada.

West Coast and West Interior: Little to no concerns here for the
next several days, with fair weather expected. Temperatures will
remain mild in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Winds will remain gusty
over southwest Alaska and northern Alaska range through Monday,
as low pressure centered near the Cook Inlet moves east Monday to
merge with a low in the Aleutians Monday night.

Interior: Gusty northeast winds to 25 to 30 mph will continue
through this evening, and weakening overnight as the pressure
gradient slackens. Shortwave trough will move from southeast
interior across the Alaska range Monday. This feature, rounding
the backside of the ridge, will help trigger showers and isolated
thunderstorms for southeast Alaska this evening, and mainly along
the Alaska range and Kuskokwim Valley into Monday. Chances for
showers will increase later this week as thermal trough becomes
reestablished just north of the Alaska range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 pm for
the upper Kuskokwim Valley due to gusty northeast winds, warm
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and minimum RH readings as
low as 20 percent. Winds and temperatures look to remain near red
flag conditions on Monday, however temperatures will be several
degrees cooler. Otherwise continued warm and dry trend will
continue as advertised into early this week. There is continues
potential for some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening from Chicken south to Northway. On Monday, the coverage
area for isolated thunderstorms expands to include the Alaska
Range and upper portions of the Kuskokwim Valley.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for significant river rises anticipated.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ227.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

NTS MAY 16



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