Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXAK69 PAFG 261241
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW IS STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT SOUTH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING
SEA WED AND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT
CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

A 490 DM LOW AT 500 MB THAT IS LOCATED 250 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE
IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A VERY COLD CORE. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM MON...AND TO 200 NM
EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM TUE..THEN CONTINUE MOVING EAST.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES NEAR THIS FEATURE.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALOFT TO BARTER
ISLAND TO TOK WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR WEST OF
THE TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOW WEST WILL MOVE
TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO UMIAT BY 3PM MON...AND TO
INUVIK TO BETTLES BY 3AM TUE. THERE WILL BE BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATE WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL ALSO SEE WEST
WINDS 20-30 KT WITH THE TROUGH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS IN ZONE 204
AS THE TROUGH MOVES PAST. WILL SEE LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN ZONE 204 WITH THE TROUGH. MAY SEE STRONG N GUSTS
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE TROUGH MOVES PAST.
WILL SEE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE BUT DECREASING TUE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -20C TO -30C WITH THE COLDEST
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY OTHER THAN A
DECREASE OF 2-4C OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. WILL SEE INCREASE
OF 2-4C ENTIRE AREA TUE BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE AT SURFACE

SURFACE...
A 1010 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH
OF BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM MON AS A 1014 MB LOW...AND TO 200 NM EAST
OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 3AM TUE AS A 1018 MB LOW..THEN CONTINUE
MOVING EAST. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST OF ALASKA WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WED. EAST WINDS
20-30 KT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
45KT AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES PAST. WIND WILL DECREASE TUE AND CLOUDS WILL START
TO DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

INTERIOR VALLEY TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE 30S TO 50S BELOW NOW UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL REMAIN THAT COLD INTO WED. WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE BRIEFLY BY ABOUT 10F DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SE ICE FOG NEAR ANY SETTLEMENTS.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE.
THIS WILL INCREASE NE WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK THEN START TO
DIVERGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALL MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE
TODAY THROUGH TUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE VERY THIN AND WISPY. SINCE THE AIR MASS IN COLDER
THAN -30C ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES EXPECT NORTHING MORE THAN
BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.