Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 221211
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 AM AKST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analyses.
Model spread is minimal through early next week and in good
agreement on timing of shortwaves through a very progressive
pattern.

Aloft a 500 HPA, a 510 DAM low over Point Hope with a short wave
extending south along the west coat of Alaska will continue to
lift north and east and will be located near Prudhoe Bay this
evening as the short wave trough will moves east and will be
located along a Prudhoe Bay to Fairbanks line this evening. The
shortwave trough will be the focal point for snow generally 2 to
4 inches over the interior today and tonight. A short wave ridge
builds over central Alaska tonight and Thursday morning as
another stronger shortwave moves north along the west coast as a
492 DAM low moves north through the central Bering Sea Thursday.
This shortwave moves north over the Seward Peninsula Thursday
evening and the western north slope Friday morning. As the
shortwave moves north and east another round of snow will move
into the west coast where there may be some light freezing rain
mixing in in the lower YK delta eastward to near McGrath. This
powerful short wave will flatten out the upper level ridge over
southern alaska and will provide another round of snow light snow
over the interior and heavy snow over the western Brooks range.
Multiple Winter Weather Headlines are hoisted for these areas. A
very moist west to southwest flow over the interior develops late
Saturday and Sunday as a strong low moves east over the Brooks
Range. This system has the potential to bring heavy snow over much
of the interior. The snowfall will be enhanced with upslope flow
on west and southwest facing slopes.

850 mb temperatures drop over Fairbanks from around 15 below on
Monday morning to around 25 below Tuesday morning and will remain
around 25 below through the end of next week and will likely
produce below normal temperatures for most of Alaska north of the
Alaska Range next week.

On the surface a 1011 mb low currently over the lower YK Delta
will weaken to a trough that will move east through the western
interior today and the central interior this afternoon and
tonight and will be the focal point for a around of light snow
generally in the 2 to 4 inch range. A 964 mb low over the central
Bering sea with a strong occluded front stretching northeast to
near the Bering Strait will continue to move north through the
Strait Thursday morning as a warm front moves north to near the
Seward Peninsula Thursday morning. The associated cold front plows
on shore Thursday afternoon as the warm front pushes over the
western Brooks Range Thursday afternoon and over the western north
slope Thursday night and Friday. The cold front continues to move
east into the central and eastern interior Friday and will again
be the focal point for anther round of light snow generally in 2
to 4 inch range. A third storm with associated fronts moves on
shore Saturday with another round of heavy snow and strong winds.
As the low moves east over the Brooks Range Saturday night and
Sunday heavy snow will move into the western interior Saturday and
the central interior Saturday night and Sunday. Current forecast
track is likely to bring heavy snow over much of the interior and
will need to be monitored closely.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
&&

$$

CCC FEB 17



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