Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.