Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270521
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
121 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary over the area lifts back to the north
tonight into Monday. A cold front approaches from the west
Monday night and crosses the region late Tuesday through
Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current surface analysis indicates a sfc boundary extending
from the central piedmont to SE VA. This boundary progressed
NE-SW through the late aftn/early evening hours and has now
become stationary. Cool and cloudy over the Nrn/NE zones
(temperatures mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s), with readings
in the mid 50s roughly along the I-64 corridor, and low/mid 60s
S of the boundary across far s-central VA and interior NE NC.
Fog has pushed onshore, and is thickest along the Atlantic coast
of the Ern Shore with vsby of 1/2-1sm. Most guidance indicates
the front begins to retreat to the NE by 06z, and then lifts N
of the area after 08z. Therefore, expect fog to
retreat/dissipate as well. Sct showers across the piedmont
associated with a dampening shortwave trough should dissipate
between 04-06z. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 40s across
the Ern Shore to the low/mid 50s elsewhere. Mainly dry and
partly cloudy conditions are expected across far SE VA and NE
NC.

Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA
w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains
invof SE CONUS coast. Genly mostly cloudy mon morning, becoming
partly sunny by aftn. All zones will be back in the warm sector
Mon, even the eastern shore so aside from locally cooler
readings at the immediate coast, most areas will rise into the
mid-upper 70s. Not much forcing for widespread precip, but will
carry 20% PoPs for aftn showers/tstms inland given some
instability by aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging begins to break down Mon night, as the front
approaches from the W and will carry chc PoPs west of I-95 after
midnight/20% or less E. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper
level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front passes
by late. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F
There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will
continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas, with a small area of 60%
PoPs across the N. There will be some potential for a few
stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional
increases and sfc dew pts will be near 60 F, but overall not
looking like widespread severe wx. Drying late Tue night with
lows mainly 50-55 F, with mostly sunny conditions Wed, somewhat
cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65 near the
coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds
down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for
showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat
morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front
approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure
returns for Sat aftn thru Sun.

Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid
60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu
night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat
night.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions across the region accept on the Eastern
Shore where onshore flow continues to produce IFR fog and cloud
ceilings. IFR conditions expected to continue at SBY until
3-4:00 in the morning then fog and ceilings expected to improve
as the wind shifts from east to south...then southwest.

Isolated showers possible tonight with RIC probably having the
best chance to get some rain. Some MVFR ceilings may also move
into RIC during the early morning hours as low clouds move into
central Va from the south. Unsettled wx conditions will persist
across the region through mid-week. Scattered showers becoming
increasingly likely by Tue/Tue night. Periods of reduced
aviation conditions will be possible during times of
precipitation. Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N.

&&

.MARINE...
Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern
coastal waters and the middle/upper Bay early this morning.
Based on trends in the latest obs have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the middle Bay north of Windmill Pt thru 4 am. DFA
for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island as been
extended until 7 am as don`t expect conditions to improve before
then.

The frontal boundary draped across the Delmarva early this
morning will eventually get pulled back north of the local area
later this morning and will see improving conditions. Light
E/NE winds across the north now will become S 5 to 15 kt by late
this morning. Low pressure and its associated cold front will
then track fm the cntrl/srn Plains ENE and acrs the local area
Tue aftn into early Wed morning. Expect SW or S winds arnd 15 kt
or less Mon thru Tue in advance of this system. Then, as the
low and cold front move out to sea late Tue night thru Wed
morning, winds will turn to the NW then N 15 kt or less. High
pressure will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with NE
winds 15 kt or less...become E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves
1-3 ft thru the period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630-631-635.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...JDM/TMG/JEF



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