Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 210238
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
938 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast through
Thursday. A backdoor cold front moves south across the area
Thursday, then meanders across the region through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Region in the warm sector now...and will be an unseasonably warm
night. The main issue is FG and how much/thick it will become.
VSBYs/CIGs have be fluctuating up/down this eve...esp over srn
VA/interior NE NC. Winds are S and mainly light (blo 10 mph)
and temperatures currently at or near the dew point (along w/
plenty of ground moisture due to recent rain events). Most
model guidance suggests similar conditions developing overnight
as they did last night (dense FG over srn/SE VA-NE NC) but over
a larger area. Continuing w/ mention of areas of FG...so far
nothing too widespread or thick to justify a dense FG advisory.
Otherwise...partly to mostly cloudy w/ lows in the u50s-l60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Morning low clouds/fog burn off with a pt to mstly sunny and
warm aftrn. Record highs at RIC/SBY will likely fall, it will
come close at ECG/ORF. Highs 75-80 except holding the 60s at the
beaches.

The backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night with
its location across the northern AKQ zones by 12Z Thu. Moisture
incrs along and ahead of this boundary with low chc pops for shwrs
across the nrn half of the fa by morning. Still warm ahead of it
with another night where fog will be possible, especially over
the water. Lows 55-60 except 50-55 ern shore areas.

Forecast then becomes a bit more complicated as the models differ on
just how far south the bndry gets. GFS stalls it across the fa while
the NAM/ECMWF push it south into NC. Moisture remains confined mainly
to areas along and north of the Va border so will keep chc pops to
low end likely across the far north. Tmps tricky as they will highly
depend on the fronts location. Could even see stdy or slowly falling
readings as the front drops south. Highs 50-55 ern shore to low-mid
70s across nern NC.

Cooler Thurs nite with chc shwrs as a moist onshore flow develops.
Lows in the 40s. Will keep chc shwrs going Fri due to the moist
onshore flow. Highs in the lwr 50s north to lwr 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A boundary is expected to set up north of the area on Saturday
leading to southwest flow and very warm temperatures with highs
climbing into the low to mid 70s for a good portion of the area
(cooler across the Eastern Shore). We should stay dry for a good
portion of the day Saturday with the highest rain chances closer to
the boundary across the north and west. Chances for showers will
increase from the northwest Saturday night into Sunday as a cold
front begins to approach the region. Mild temperatures are expected
on Saturday night with lows generally ranging from the mid to upper
50s.

The cold front crosses region during the day on Sunday bringing a
chance for showers (and potentially some isolated thunder) to the
area. Another mild day out ahead of the front on Sunday with highs
in the 70s for much of the area. Showers may try to linger Sunday
night into Monday, especially across the east. Lows Sunday night
will range from the mid 40s NW to the lower 50s SE and highs Monday
will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure builds
across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VRB conditions expected into Wed morning w/ restricted VSBYs and
lo CIGs expected. After morning clouds/fog burn off Wed...VFR
conditions expected by the afternoon. A back door cold front
approaches from the NW Wed night then drops south across the
area on Thu. Expecting a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in
rain/fog Thu/Fri behind this feature.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tonight thru Thu. Late this aftn,
sfc high pressure was cntrd well off the Mid Atlc coast,
providing southerly winds 5-15 kt over the waters. Areas of fog
and stratus were still lingering over portions of the waters
also, and likely will re-develop over most of the waters later
this evening into Wed morning. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory has
been issued for the entire marine area until 10 am Wed.
Otherwise, expect SSW winds 5-15 kt tonight into early Thu
morning, then winds shift to the NNE 5-15 kt Thu into Fri, as a
backdoor front drops thru the region. The front then lifts back
north as a warm front later Fri, and will move north of the
region Fri night. Waves/seas will increase Thu into Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs will likely be challenged Wed 2/21:

* Record highs:

* Date: Wed 2/21

  RIC:  75 (1930)
  ORF:  79 (2014)
  SBY:  75 (1943)
  ECG:  77 (2014)

* Record high mins for 2/21.

  RIC:  54 (1953)
  ORF:  58 (1953)
  SBY:  51 (1953)
  ECG:  61 (1939)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ



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