Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290312
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1012 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT BASICALLY SPLITTING THE FA IN HALF AS OF LATE EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO N CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE NWRN CNTYS IN RESPONSE TO SCND S/W
APPRCHG FROM THE SW. LTST SHORT RANGE MODELS QUICKLY BRING A
WIDSEPREAD SWATH OF OVERRUNNING PCPN OVR THE FA DURING THE PRE
DAWN HRS...NOT REACHING THE SRN MOST CNTYS UNTIL 09Z OR SO. THUS...
POPS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT. LOWS 40-45.

COLDER N/NNE FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN MONDAY MORNING GRADUALLY
RAMPING DOWN N-S IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
MONDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR MONDAY EVENING...BUT MODEL TSECTIONS SUGGEST LOLVLS MAY BE
TOO DRY FOR MUCH DRIZZLE.

YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. NAM REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
WOULD SUGGEST A PREIOD OF SNOW FROM THE NRN NECK INTO THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WPC PREFERS THE
WEAKER SOLUTION...AS DID PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE MAINTAINED
ONLY LOW CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD
STILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARLY POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE AS SHORTWARVE EXITS. MOST AREAS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOW 40S AS A RESULT.

LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR...WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S MOST AREAS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
28/12Z GFS/ECMWF DEMONSTRATE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SW FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SE. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A STRONGER HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHICH KEEPS A WARM FRONT FARTHER S...WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS
THE FRONT TO LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURE...AS OVERALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN (ASIDE FROM A CHC OF SLEET ACROSS
THE N FRIDAY NIGHT). DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE
COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST
DETAILS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO BE
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED INTO CENTRL VA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ESE TO OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT MOVES INTO NE
NC. CONDS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRNTL BNDRY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO LATE TUE.


OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN ON TUE AS THE LOW IS
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PCPN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA N-S THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW NNE
SURGE. THE SURGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND
(~20KT) IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH
OF A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT S OF CAPE CHARLES
LATER MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE 28/12Z NAM IS STILL
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY LARGELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WHICH FEATURED A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/CMC. THIS SUPPORTS THE WIND REMAINING NNE WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7FT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SRN OCEAN ZONES...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE
BAY. SEAS POTENTIALLY COULD BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SCA FOR
THE SRN OCEAN ZONES WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 6PM TUESDAY. THE ONSET
OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL NOT LIKELY BEGIN
UNTIL LATER 3RD PERIOD...SO WILL FORGO AN SCA AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
THE WIND DIMINISHING AND SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST
WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-
     632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...SAM/WRS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...AJZ







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