Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
XPCT THE STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BY 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. PTCHY FOG PSBL ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS XCPT FOR THE
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ


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