Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160537
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG






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