Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221404
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST THIS MRNG RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
SHRAS/TSTMS NOW MOVING WELL OFF THE ATLC CST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY THROUGH MIDDAY ASIDE FROM WEAKENING -SHRA DRIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE THIS MRNG. OTRW...STARTING OUT P/MCLDY
CONDS.

NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE VIGOROUS
S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
SKY BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG IN SOME AREAS. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER
THIS MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECASTED BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



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