Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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839
FXUS61 KAKQ 170023
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
823 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region tonight and
Tuesday, then remains over the area through the remainder of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest MSAS has the cold front well off the NC coast with high
pressure building in from the west. Last of the post frontal
showers should exit off the northern Outer Banks over the next
few hours. Otw...clear or clearing skies and noticably colder.
Expect some mixing overnight with a little wind which should
mitigate patchy frost north and west of Richmond. Lows from the
upr 30s NW to near 50 over sern beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Continued breezy Tuesday morning especially in the east as high
pressure builds in form the west. Conditions become more calm by
afternoon with the high directly over the region. With sunny
skies highs will moderate some compared to Monday with
temperatures generally in the mid 60s. Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will be the coldest as winds remain calm and
dewpoints low as we head into Tuesday evening. Expect lows to
drop into the mid to upper 30s across the western piedmont. This
will be a best chance for patchy frost (Wed am) and have added
a mention of areas of frost to the forecast for Wed am generally
across the piedmont and even interior portions of MD Eastern
Shore. Closer to the coast lows should average low to mid 40s
with upper 40s to near 50 at the immediate coast.

Expect a gradual warning trend and continued dry Wed and Thu as
the ridge remains in place this week. Thu will see highs around
70 and low to mid 70s Friday. Overnight lows will also warm Wed
and Thu night with lows ranging form the upper 30s to lower 40s
well inland to 50s at the coast. Again Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will the coldest with the best chance for front Wed am.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds over the area through Sat then moves off
the coast Sun/Mon. Dry conditions continue along with a slow warming
trend. Highs Fri 70-75. Lows upr 40s-upr 50s. Highs Sat/Sun in the
mid-upr 70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows sat nite 50-60. Lows
Sun nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s.

Models show the next cold front approaching Mon. GFS quicker moving
it east, ECMWF a bit slower. Will go with low chc pops mainly in the
afternoon then chc pops Mon nite. Highs in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front has moved south of the CWA with a few lingering
showers over coastal NC. VFR conditions prevail across the
region. Some gusty N-NE 15-25 kt winds will persist during the
overnight especially along the coast. Inland the winds will be
10 kt or lighter. High pressure and VFR will persist over the
area through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front pushing offshore with
broad high pressure building into the OH Valley. The front
pushes farther off the coast tonight, with strong-SCA conditions
over much of the wtrs continuing behind the front with more CAA
expected tonight. Winds will mainly gust up to 30 kt over the
Bay and ocean, with a few gusts up to 35 kt psbl tonight. Expect
15-25 kt winds over the Sound and rivers with waves over the
Bay of 3-5 ft and seas over the ocean up to 6-8 ft, highest
over southern cstl wtrs.

The high then slides into the area late Tue leading to improving
marine conditions, with just some lingering 5-6 ft seas over
southern cstl wtrs. The high will remain over the area through
the end of the week with an extended period of sub-SCA
conditions expected.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for
radome repairs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...MAS
EQUIPMENT...



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