Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
RAINFALL REALLY LOSING ITS OOMPH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ADJUSTED POPS/QPF DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR A FASTER DECREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AND LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES OVERALL. BEST CHANCES
FOR MORE SHOWERS THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE NE OF RICHMOND METRO AND ACROSS THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DELMARVA THIS EVENING...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT RETROGRADES WEST AND INLAND FROM THE NJ
COAST. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STACKED LOW GETS A PUSH EAST AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM TROUGH.
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST RESULTS IN KEEPING LOW CHC POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD BREAKS RESULTING IN SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY. ENOUGH MOISTURE NOTED IN MID LEVELS FOR AFTN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP...SO WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY. WARMER WITH
HIGHS 70-75 EXCEPT M-U60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THIS BNDRY TO TAP INTO...BUT MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CHC
SHWRS WITH FROPA. LOWS 55-60.

MODELS STALL THE BNDRY ACROSS NC SUN THEN DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT RETURNS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TSCTNS SHOW MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN WITH SLGHT CHC DIURNAL POPS. HIGHS
L-M70S NORTH...75-80 SOUTH. PARTLY CLDY SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S.
WARM FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SE. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ACROSS
THE MTS AFTER 18Z THEN DRIFT SE. WILL CARRY SLGHT CHC POPS MON
AFTN. TEMPS TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. HIGHS FROM
NEAR 70 ACROSS THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S SOUTHERN TIER CNTYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE SPRING TIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK KEEPING AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. DO NOT THINK NEXT WEEK WILL BE
NEARLY WET AS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WILL GENERALLY NEED CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST...EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN THROUGH WED AS HEIGHTS LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST DRYING LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL END UP BEING ABOVE NORMAL
AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE HUMID ESPECIALLY WED/THU WITH DEW POINTS
LIKELY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING WHILE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS
HAVE ALSO LIFTED FROM MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO RIC AND IFR CEILINGS AT SBY AFTER 06Z...
LIFTING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AT SBY
SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.

THE MAIN CONCERN AND THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE
RAIN. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS ON
SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRINGS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS STATES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN NEAR THE NJ COAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THE SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE SEAS CONTINUE BETWEEN 4 TO
6 FT DUE TO OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT. SIMILAR WINDS SAT AS THE
SFC LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W. THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA ON SUN...WITH 3-4 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL
WATERS AND 2-3 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY. WINDS BECOME NW 10-15 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NOT ENOUGH CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO REACH
SCA CRITERIA. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THEREAFTER THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND SLY
FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SMALL STREAMS
MAY RISE SOME THEN START TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LARGER RIVERS ARE CONTINUING TO RISE IN THE CHOWAN
AND APPOMATTOX BASINS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER WITH CREST EXPECT NEAR 19 FT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NOTTOWAY RIVER...THE BLACKWATER RIVER AND
APPOMATTOX RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE TIDE
CYCLES...WITH A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER
COUNTY WHERE BISHOPS HEAD WILL REACH MODERATE FLOODING TGNT...AND
PSBLY THIS AFTN. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ~1.5 FT HAVE ALREADY RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF SOME MODERATE
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS AROUND THE LOWER BAY (VA BEACH/NORTHAMPTON
VA). DEPARTURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL. SOME OTHER LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS, MOST
LIKELY WITH THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE TNGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ022-023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ081-
     084>086-089-090-093-095>098-522>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ESS/JAO
MARINE...MAM/JAO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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