Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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