Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131518
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1018 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Markedly colder air spreads across the region through this
evening, with temperatures moderating for late week into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the area today with a sfc trof ovr the mts.
SKC attm (except for a few streamers across the ern shore) but
expect clouds to approach then overspread the nrn half of the
fa this aftrn ahead of the clipper low. Adjusted temps/dew
points a bit based on downsloping winds east of the trof. Bumped
up highs a degree or two based off the latest guid and sfc
trends. Gusty WNW winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 at times.
Highs 35-40.

PVS DSCN:
Precip chances nudge up (slightly) tonight with the latest in a
series of clipper systems sliding from the Ohio Valley into the
northeast. Models remain in good agreement that this feature
will push along and north of the region, with model timing a
bit faster at 00z than 12z. Have maintained a 20% of rain/snow
showers over the Lwr Eastern Shore, mainly for a passing RA/SN
shower this evening. Could see a brief flurry/sprinkle farther
south into Central VA this evening, but have kept pops aob 14%
with chances of measuring quite low even on CAMs. Otherwise,
look for an increase in clouds this aftn through evening, with
clearing late. Not quite as cold with early morning lows 25-30
inland, lower 30s se coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly clear/dry conditions persist for Thu with temps
moderating. Highs mainly in the mid/upr 40s under a partly
cloudy sky. Early morning lows in the low to mid 20
inland...upper 20s to low 30s at the coast.

Models are a bit flatter with the upper level flow for the
Friday system. As such, expect any significant QPF to be well
off to our north. Will hang on to a slight to low end chance pop
across the MD lower eastern shore for now, but would expect any
impacts to be minimal given model trend towards a more zonal
pattern aloft. Highs upper 30s to low 40s north...45 to 50
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds back into the region for Saturday and
Sunday leading to dry conditions and a warming trend with
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and
into the 50s on Sunday. Another system approaches the region
during the day on Sunday bringing another chance of rain Sunday
into Monday. Temperatures continue to moderate into early next
week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday and Tuesday
and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front now offshore this morning. West winds have diminished
a bit before sunrise but should increase slightly and remain
gusty through mid aftn, w/gusts to 20-25 kt expected. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions all sites through the 12z TAF period.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to then prevail for much of the
week ahead. Some mid to high clouds expected by early this
evening, associated with next clipper to cross north of the
terminals tonight into early Thu. Low chance of a few flurries
at SBY Wed evening, with another low chance on Friday.
Otherwise, dry with VFR conditions for much of the latter half
of the week into the weekend. Rain chances pick up again by late
Sunday/early Monday ahead of next system approaching from the
deep south.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds continue to decrease this morning a bit quicker than
the models were suggesting across the waters. The area of low
pressure is now over Sern Canada, near Nova Scotia, and at the
same time high pressure over the Sern US is nosing northward
into the Mid-Atlantic states. This has enabled the gradient to
relax enough to bring most of the Gale force winds to an end for
all but the 2 most northern coastal zones. So have replace the
previous gale warnings with SCAs that will be in effect through
the day tomorrow. There will probably be a short period of time
this afternoon and early evening on the Bay where conditions
will be below SCA levels, but with a quick turn around back to
SCA levels with the next clipper system tonight was enough just
keep the SCA flags up until that system passes the area.

prev discussion...
Gale warnings remain in place through this afternoon (4pm) due to
WNW winds remaining elevated in the wake of last evening`s cold
front. Gusts between 35-40 kt will be common. Kept the local rivers
(except the lwr James) in strong SCA with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5-
7 ft, with 3-5 ft waves.

Expect the gales to be replaced with SCAs this afternoon through
midday Thursday, as the gradient relaxes a bit ahead of the
next weaker cold front approaching from the west. Some guidance
does indicate the potential for gale gusts (~35 kt) across the
outer coastal waters tonight. Confidence in this remains low at
this time. Seas build back to 5-6 ft; waves 3-4 ft.

Next cold front crosses the waters by Thursday afternoon but with
weak CAA behind it lending to sub-SCA conditions through Friday.
Next system skirts the coast Friday night with SCA conditions
possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles
given the gusty offshore flow (W-SW).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...ESS/JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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