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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY...AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH FROM OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AND RE-DEVELOP
OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. WV SATELLITE REVEALS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER COLORADO...AND THIS WILL PHASE WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER NEBRASKA LATER TODAY TO HELP DRIVE THE SFC LOW ENE THROUGH
THE DAY. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLOUD UP WITH
CIGS OF 10-15K FT. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...BUT REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S. COLDEST SECTION OF CWA IS THE ERN SHORE WHERE WINDS ARE GENLY
CALM AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES READINGS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING TODAY...SFC LOW IN THE
MIDWEST HAS A LONG WAY TO TRAVEL BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST...SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS TODAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY SO
SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A LIGHT SSE WIND OF
5-10 MPH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH A FAIRLY MILD AFTN
EXPECTED. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER-MID 40S FAR NORTH...TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THIS EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO REACH EAST OF THE
MTNS AS SFC LOW AT 00Z WILL ONLY BE AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL INDIANA
OR WESTERN OHIO. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY BELOW 800MB...SO WILL
ONLY HAVE LOW CHC POPS INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE NORTHEN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...THE
ONSET OF PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF -RA/IP (ALTHOUGH WITH SFC TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NO IMPACTS WILL OCCUR). MOISTURE
STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z...STEADILY INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL (80-90%) FOR ALL AREAS AFTER 09Z. THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO MODIFY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING WELL N OF THE AREA. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING...WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER
40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE BY 12Z MONDAY.

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL OF THE AREA
FROM 12Z TO 15Z MONDAY...AND IN FAR SE SECTIONS THIS MAY BE THE
PERIOD OF MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.  A QUICK DRYING TREND
COMMENCES FROM 15-18Z ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A TAD SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS MODELS HAD INDICATED. AFTER 18Z...ONLY CHC POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH THE SKY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY OVER INTERIOR VA/NC. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WARM...AND
CAA WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...SO HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F FAR NW...TO 55-60 F ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW PREVAILS MONDAY NIGHT...AND BACKS TO WESTERLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AND ASSOCIATED CAA)
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH LOCATING ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS NW...TO LOW-MID 20S SE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
COLD TUE AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S NE...TO THE LOWER 40S SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE NGT INTO WED...RESULTING IN
MILDER WX MIDWEEK. CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NNW WED...THEN SLOLY
SETTLES S ACRS THE AREA WED NGT THROUGH THU...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME SFC LO PRES TRACKS E INVOF GULF COAST STATES. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCE BTWN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. ECMWF CONTS TO SUPPRESS
MOISTURE W/ SRN LO PRES WHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTURE (AND PTNTL
P-TYPE ISSUES) INTO/ACRS THE FA (ON THU) BEFORE DEPARTING THU NGT.
WILL GO W/ CONSENSUS FM HPC...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC
POPS (RA S...MIXED SN OR RA/SN N) AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE
RGN. DRY AND COLD FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...VARYING FROM 12-15K FT AGL. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
DECKS 10 TO 15K FT AGL WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY. MAY ALSO SEE A
FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL FROM KRIC TO KSBY. WINDS BECOME S-SWLY
GENERALLY AOB 10 KT.

SKIES BECOME OVC THIS EVENING AS THE APPROACHING SFC LOW LIFTS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...REACHING KRIC AND KSBY BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HAVE OPTED TO TREND SKY COVER TO MVFR AND INTRODUCE -RA BR AT KRIC
AND KSBY AS A RESULT.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...PUSHING OFFSHORE
MON AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL BE FROM
CIGS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VSBYS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
MVFR ATTM. CONDITIONS IMPROVE POST FRONTAL WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES-WEDS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND
SEAS 2-3 FT...AND SUBSIDING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING THRU
THE REGION MON MORNING-AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT WITH SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE BEGINNING TONIGHT IN THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. HEADLINES BEGIN LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT MON AFTERNOON WITH WAVES 3-4 FT.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING W
TO NW POST FRONTAL. STRONG CAA WILL KICK IN MON EVENING IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN HOISTED AS A RESULT. GUSTS OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED OVER THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS AND GUSTS OF 30 KT IN THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-10 FT MON NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY ALSO
EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS TEMPS OVER THE WATERS DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA TUES
MORNING ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 5 FT TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WATERS TUES AND WEDS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS LATE WEDS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM