Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 250701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.  CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.

THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.  PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.

BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.

SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT
NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A
MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO
FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF
ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS

AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING
MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL.

WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD
FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS
HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND
MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING.
HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES
AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS
AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING
CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT
COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES.  AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM







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