Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 191731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA






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