Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. SOME FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE OR
SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING...HAVE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT/LATE. FOG AND ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. WHILE ALOFT...THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO MENTION IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE SO
LOW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD SINCE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE STREAMING IN.

LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.