Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 312138
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
538 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sink across the region tonight into
Thursday morning. Some showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
accompany the front. High pressure will control the weather Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Persistent cloud cover this afternoon has kept instability in
check, running around 500 j/kg. Better instability is found near
the NY/Canadian border in the vicinity of the front. The front
will move south today across the area. Surface based instability
wanes. Will still carry chance of thunderstorms though as there is
some elevated instability. Severe chances are near nil.

Temperatures will be warm in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front clears the area Thursday morning.

A sharp upper level trough will swing across the region on
Thursday. 500mb temps drop to -14C or 2 standard deviations below
normal. Drier air will filter in as evidenced by PWATS falling to
0.75 inch or 1.5 standard deviations below normal. Upstream plenty
of clouds associated with the trough this afternoon. Given limited
moisture, not looking for anything more than a hit or miss shower.
So, will carry slight chance pops for SHRA all areas. Temperatures
on Thursday will run in the 70s to low 80s.

High pressure will build in for Friday into Saturday providing dry
and cooler weather. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in
the 60s and 70s with lows Friday night in the 40s and 50s.

Latest computer projections with now Tropical Storm Hermine have
shown a significant shift to the west. No impacts expected here
through Saturday from Hermine. See the "Long Term" section for
more on Hermine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As we head through the later part of the weekend into early next
week Tropical Storm Hermine may impact our weather. Please refer to
the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts and details
about Tropical Storm Hermine.

As for 5 pm EDT, Tropical Storm Hermine was located in the Gulf of
Mexico. Hermine is forecast to head northeastward across the southeastern
United States moving into the mid Atlantic region under a building
upper level ridge over the eastern United States. The forecast for
Saturday night through Monday will be dependent on Hermine`s exact
track. At this time, have some chance pops in forecast for mainly
the southern portion of the forecast area.

Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere is expected to dominate our
weather with more very warm/hot temperatures as head into the middle
of the week. Anticipating highs back into the 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday, around 10 degrees above normal. Humidity levels are
expected to also be on the increase with dew points back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front and upper level disturbance will approach from the
northwest this afternoon, and pass through late tonight through
early Thursday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through at least early this
evening. There will be some scattered showers and sprinkles
through mid afternoon, with a better chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon into early tonight,
especially at KPOU/KALB/KPSF. Since the threat of a thunderstorm
impacting a TAF site is low, will keep out explicit mention of
thunder at this time. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR could occur in any
heavier showers.

Scattered showers and isolated thunder still could occur through
around midnight, then tapering off from NW to SE.

The cold front will settle south and east across the TAF sites
between 09Z-13Z/Thu. A period of MVFR CIGS is expected near and
just behind the front, with areas of IFR possible. Conditions
should improve to VFR between 14Z-18Z/Thu.

Winds will be mainly south to southwest this afternoon at 5-10 KT,
with a few gusts up to 15-20 KT possible. South to southwest winds
will continue through tonight, before shifting into the northwest
to north behind the front at 5-10 KT. North to northwest winds
will continue at 5-10 KT Thursday morning.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Labor Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will sink across the region tonight into
Thursday morning. Some showers and a thunderstorm will accompany the
front. High pressure will control the weather Friday into Saturday.

Tonight and Thursday night RH values will recover to 90 to 100
percent. Thursday afternoon minimum RH values will lower to 45 to
60 percent.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5-15 mph today and tonight.
Winds shift to north and northwest Thursday and Thursday night at
15 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are anticipated through Saturday.

Latest computer projections with now Tropical Storm Hermine have
shown a significant shift to the west. No impacts expected here
through Saturday from Hermine. Still too early to say what impacts
Hermine will have for the rest of the Labor Day weekend. Please
check here and with the National Hurricane Center at
www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest on Hermine.

The cold front moving through tonight into Thursday morning will
produce 0.10 to 0.30 inch of rain. Dry weather returns for
Thursday night into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe
NEAR TERM...OKeefe
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe



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