Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 210852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM










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