Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 251008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AFTER EARLY
MORNING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURE DROPS DURING THE DAY COULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES. IT WILL BE RATHER BLUSTERY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
NOSE INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR TONIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND
10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON MONDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
AND THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND BANDING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY STARTING
LATE MONDAY. WE HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH NORTH TO AROUND AN
INCH OR SO SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

MON NT-TUE NT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A MAJOR
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD
MOVEMENT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPINGES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM AND
CAPTURE THE INTENSIFYING LOW...AND THEREBY ALLOWING IT TO POSSIBLY
RETROGRADE/LOOP FOR A BIT SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE KEY TO THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE IN
PART RELATED TO A SECONDARY PV ANOMALY RACING EAST ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA TODAY BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS PV ANOMALY HELPS TO INDUCE THE CLOSED LOW
THAT EVENTUALLY CAPTURES THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...PREVENTING IT FROM
MOVING OUT TO SEA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS
EVOLVES...INCLUDING HOW FAR N AND W THE SFC LOW POTENTIALLY
RETROGRADES AS IT IS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE
00Z/NAM AND UKMET APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME WITH LESS
CAPTURING AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY DISCARDED.

BASED ON THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEN...AS THE SFC LOW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS AND
PIVOTS N AND W...STRONG MID LEVEL F-GEN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
BANDS OF SNOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON
NT INTO TUE. HOW FAR WEST THESE BANDS REACH REMAINS IN
QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A WATCH
ISSUANCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOULD THE STORM EVOLVE AS SOME OF THE WESTERNMOST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST...THEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF EASTERN NY OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS NEWER
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.

WED-WED NT...IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

THU-FRI...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE VERY
SKETCHY. AT THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

SAT...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LINGERING
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK...AND PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS
AT KPSF. WE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KPOU UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SUN.
ALSO...SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY REACH KGFL/KALB/KPSF...ESP AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THIS COULD CREATE BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF
VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z/MON.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AT 5-10 KT...BUT MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. AS THE
FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY INTO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FOR LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY E HEAVY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11







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