Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 230903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...FAIR...COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WILL OPEN THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  ON MEMORIAL
DAY...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZING WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

AS OF 440 AM EDT...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY. IT IS A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING. AFTER A FROSTY START TO THE DAY...THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL STILL BE COOL FOR LATE MAY WITH H850 TEMPS IN
THE 0C TO +2C RANGE BY 18Z...AND WARMING TO +3C TO +6C BY 00Z/SUN.
MIXING TO H800-H825 SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID AND U50S
OVER THE MTNS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS MAY
ONLY REACH THE U40S TO L50S. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO
15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL START OUT
CLEAR...BUT THEN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EARLY ON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF...BUT NOT AS SHARPLY OR COLD
AS THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS /SRN DACKS...SRN
VT...N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES/...BUT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IN THE U30S TO L40S. A LIGHT S TO SE BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO UPSTATE
NY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S TO SW. H850 TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO +10C. GOOD MIXING ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO U70S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE SHORT TO MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A WARM FRONT OR A DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TRENDS
ARE FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY DUE TO THE
WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOW STRATUS GETTING INTO THE
S/SE EXTREME OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

MEMORIAL DAY-MON NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH
OF NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE DAY COULD BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CLOSER TO BOUNDARY IN THE SRN
DACKS...LAKE GEORGE AREA...AND INTO SRN VT LATE IN THE DAY.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL AT THIS TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES LOOK
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM OFF
THE GA/SC/NC COAST. HIGHS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS WITH
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW MAY FOCUS ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES ONCE
AGAIN. SHOWALTER VALUES DO NOT FALL BELOW 0C...BUT A SLIGHT CHC
OF THUNDER WAS USED OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA AND PARTS
OF SRN VT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
EVENING WITH U50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY PLACING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSONS BAY AREA. THIS SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S NEARING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION BY MID WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THUS THERE IS
THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN THIS TIME FRAME
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGING DOMINATES.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
BY THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAY TIME MIXING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 200...SO NO HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 15 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 60 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO
LOWER TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MAY 23...

ALBANY...36 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1967

GLENS FALLS...32 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1967

POUGHKEEPSIE...34 DEGREES SET BACK 1963

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064>066.
MA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
CLIMATE...STAFF


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