Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 230909
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
509 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warmer than recent days with sunshine and light
winds as high pressure continues to build in. The dry weather
will last into Monday night then chances for rain will be on
the increase late Monday night into Tuesday morning as coastal
storm moves up the east coast. A widespread rainfall is expected
for much of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunshine returns today along with warmer temperatures. Expecting
highs in the 60s with some 50s across the higher terrain of the
western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains
into the Berkshires. Winds will be light as high pressure continues
to build in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected to persist into Monday night despite a cold
front moving the region from the north tonight. There will be very
limited moisture associated with the boundary. In addition, will not
have upper level support as short wave energy rotating about a low
over Hudson Bay Canada will remain well to our north with a low
cut off from the mean flow moving across the southeastern United
States. Clouds associated with the front are expected to occur
behind the boundary. Sunday night will feature mainly clear skies
and seasonable temperatures with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s
along with light and variable winds.

The flow aloft will be zonal so the front is expected to stall
across the region Monday while higher pressure tries to build
in. Temperatures Monday will be similar to Sunday for much of
the area with the exception of cooler readings across the far
northern portion of the forecast area to the north of the
stalling boundary.

In the meantime, a surface low is expected to develop along the
southeastern coast in response to the upper low moving toward
the coast. The system becomes stacked then heads gradually up
northward up the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night as a longwave
trough develops over the central CONUS. Ridging to the north in
the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere will slow its
northward progress and delay the spread of the rainfall into
local area. Chances for rain should increase from south to north
late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low level winds
increase ahead of the system and moisture is transported in off
the Atlantic. A widespread rainfall is expected across most of
the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. At this time, QPF amounts
are anticipated to range from about a quarter of an inch to
around three-quarters of an half across the forecast area from
northwest to southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active Pacific jet will carve out a deep time-mean longwave trough
over the western CONUS. Downstream, deamplifying waves emanating
from this trough will battle a building ridge centered across the
Southeastern US. Model consensus favors positive upper height
anomalies over the eastern third of the US, so above-normal
temperatures are favored during the long-term period.

On Wednesday, model consensus depicts a compact cutoff low moving
northeastward a little ways off the coast. Timing of this wave
favors midlevel moisture inflow diminishing as the day wears on, but
still have chance PoPs - highest over western New England. Then,
attention turns to a surface low tracking north-northeast through
the Great Lakes as the longwave trough attempts to expand eastward.
Model consensus has slowed down the timing of the front with this
system, keeping us in the warm sector and delaying shower/storm
chances until the nighttime. ECMWF stalls the front out into Friday
over our region, so have kept low chance PoPs in place for this
scenario.

For the weekend, models try to expand the strong anticyclone
centered over the Southeastern US northward, while a deep upper low
sets up over the Intermountain West. Moisture return in between
these systems looks to result in a large west-east band of precip
along a warm front. The position of this front looks to be the key
for precipitation chances, as the eastward extend of it will be
nearby, but encountering surface and upper ridging over the
Northeast. For now, kept the weekend dry, reflecting latest model
consensus.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still some patches of 3.5-5kft stratus around overnight.
Potential for brief drops to MVFR at KPSF, otherwise VFR
expected to continue overnight. Guidance does not suggest fog
will be an issue since we are still mainly pre-greenup but will
continue to monitor. Skies will be mostly clear during the
daylight hours with high pressure overhead.

Winds ranging from west to north at 8 kt or less early on,
becoming light and variable. Winds backing to southwest Sunday
afternoon at 8 kt or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low relative humidity values this afternoon and Monday afternoon...

Dry weather today into Monday night as high pressure dominates.
Chances for rain will be on the increase late Monday night into
Tuesday morning as coastal storm moves up the east coast. A
widespread rainfall is expected for much of the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night which may linger into Wednesday.

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be in the mid
20s to mid 30s this afternoon with a recovery to 80 to 95 percent
tonight. Minimums Monday afternoon are expected to be in mainly
the 30s.

Winds will be light at less 10 mph today, tonight and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather today into Monday night as high pressure dominates.
Chances for rain will be on the increase late Monday night into
Tuesday morning as coastal storm moves up the east coast. A
widespread rainfall is expected for much of the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night which may linger into Wednesday. At this
time, QPF amounts are anticipated to range from about a quarter
of an inch to around three-quarters of an half across the forecast
area from northwest to southeast. A brief break in the wet weather
is expected before cold front sweeps through Thursday night
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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