Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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