Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 212107
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A BROKEN TO SOLID LIVE OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WAS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY BE DECREASING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF TH
ALBANY FORECAST...SO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. WHILE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE THE LOWEST WITH ONLY 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ALL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM












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