Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210342
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1142 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW YORK STATE. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEAST TO TORONTO WHICH ARE
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN. RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 09Z. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK 18Z TO 22Z.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE JUST INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
ROCHESTER. 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR WILL APPROACH 80KTS SO A FEW
LOW-TOPPED GUSTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EVEN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING. QPF AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TOWARD MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THE SHOWERS BRING LOWER CIGS. SOME IFR MAY BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LOW OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TAFS.
A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO DISCOUNT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NOT TAPERING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (17KTS) FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ABOVE 4 FEET SO AN ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THERE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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