Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 191502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 15Z...HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS
AREA RADARS AND SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE BULK OF THIS HAVING CHANGED
TO JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES. WHILE SOME LEFTOVER
FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...THIS
SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND LIMITED IN SCOPE...AND THUS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SITUATED AROUND 4 KFT
PER THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING...AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES.

TEMPS TODAY WILL SHOW LITTLE RECOVERY... WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN
THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL BACK TO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AT
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE LOOKS TO BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND IMPACTS
UPON THE TEMPERATURE CYCLE. THE MODEL TREND IS TOWARD HIGHER LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY SATURDAY. WEAK WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD KEEP ANY PARTIAL CLEARING FAIRLY
LIMITED. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LITTLE TEMPERATURES
VARIATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE
CLEARING COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS THERE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT
MORE EASTWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGESTING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
SUNSHINE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOTCH A BIT UPWARD SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MAINE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
THE REGION. AFTER THIS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS
MID-SECTION WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SW-NE TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT
ALL HAVE THE FEATURE TO SOME EXTENT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIKELY
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE
EASTERN STATES AND WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. A
12Z CONSENSUS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT
STILL HAS A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR ONTARIO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

FOR OUR REGION...IT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY
DAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STILL HAS OUR REGION PRIMARILY IN THE WARM
SECTOR UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW. CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND/OR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY BE -6 TO -8C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN MARGINAL 850MB TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW AND UPSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER THIS COULD
CHANGE TOO IF MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS
IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH
THE FORECAST STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT. PRECIP-WISE...VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES COULD PRODUCE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO MVFR
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR/WOOD
MARINE...JJR/WCH







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