Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011925
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUT OF THE TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SATURDAY.

A THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM
ROUGHLY KJHW TO SOUTH OF KROC WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORELINE.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING FOR A QUIET NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NNE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JAMES BAY LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE THE LOW ITSELF BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF OUR EASTERN CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. AS
THIS FEATURE CROSSES OUR REGION IT WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FOUND FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
WHILE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LACK OF
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE
LIGHTER WINDS MAY STILL ALLOW PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500MB TROUGHINESS WILL LIE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THEN MODELS HINT AT WEST COAST RIDGING BUILDING EAST
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY
TUESDAY FALLING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A FEW DRY DAYS
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TO MID 50S
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS
UP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND INLAND FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
CEILINGS IN CONVECTION WILL BE 3-4K FT WITH VSBY 2-3SM. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FALL APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATE
TODAY.  AFTER SOME EVENING CLEARING...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FORM ON SATURDAY MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN ONSHORE BREEZES DURING THE DAYS...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
BREEZES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






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