Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 050223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD EAST THRU NH AND NOT EXPECTING
PCPN TO SURVIVE INTO WRN CWA THUS HV RMVD MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS
DRG THE OVRNGT. HV LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACRS NORTH WOODS AS THEY ARE
DROPPING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO EXISTING
FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL
BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR
WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...
CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND
ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG
ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE
FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY.

MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE
DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS.
HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR
TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE...
THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A SHOWER
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -TSRA AND ALSO MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3
TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN
DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20
KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW
WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN


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