Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270904
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
504 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today then slide south
of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the
area Sunday and stall. The front will return northward Monday as
a warm front.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Drier air on the way for this term.

IR satl imagery showed clouds hanging tough across the CWA early
this morning w/low ceilings. NAM soundings showed moisture at
teh 925mb level w/drier air aloft. The latest WV imagery
supported this setup w/drier air trying to work its way down
into the region from the n. The NAM showed clouds holding on
longer through mid morning and then clearing. Decided to follow
this trend for today. Surface analysis showed an inverted trof
extending back the low passing so of Nova Scotia. Some of the
mesoscale guidance such as the HRRR and WRF show some light rain
showers affect eastern sections such as Washington County and
even back across the western sections today. The NAM12 and GFS
keep the area rain-free and decided to follow this trend. Temps
will be warmer hitting the 60s region wide.

The guidance shows an upper disturbance moves across the region
tonight. This feature will be some scattered mid and high
clouds across portions of the north and west. Overall, a mostly
clear night setting up w/temps dropping back into low and mid
40s. Some areas across the far n and w could see upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will enter northern zones Sunday morning and
reach as far south as a Greenville to Houlton line before
stalling. Highs south of the front will reach the lower 70s
with sunshine while upper 60s are anticipated in northern
Aroostook County. The coast will be under the influence of
onshore flow with cooler temperatures. At this point, there`s
not much cooling aloft and little CAPE or shear with the front.
As a result, will continue forecasting scattered showers in
northern zones and not mention thunderstorms. That said, will
have to closely monitor obs and guidance as Sunday draws closer
for any signs of convection. When the front moves northward
Sunday night into Monday, more showers can be expected. Elevated
CAPE is currently not showing on Sunday night, but cannot be
ruled out. The combination of a moist low level southerly flow
and increasing upper level clouds on Monday with produce a
cloudy and cooler day with the shower risk increasing in the
afternoon as an occluded front draws closer. The front will
cross the area Monday night with most precipitation in the
evening.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather persists Tuesday into Thursday as shortwaves
spin around an upper low in Ontario. The upper low will slowly
drift towards the area later in the week and a drier west to
northwest flow is expected to give a break to the precipitation
on Friday. On Tuesday, a southerly flow will probably produce
cloudy skies and minimize chances of surface-based convection on
Tuesday afternoon/evening...although elevated instability is
possible. On Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, conditions will
be more conducive to afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR this morning for all terminals. Conditions will
improve to VFR by later this morning into tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday for all
terminals. On Sunday night, IFR cigs are expected for BGR and
BHB while MVFR cigs will develop further north. These cigs
continue into Monday morning, but lift to VFR by late morning.
All terminals will trend towards IFR cigs in rain Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Cigs will increase to MVFR Tuesday
afternoon. Cigs will most likely go back towards IFR Tuesday
night. VFR returns Wednesday for all sites.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA this morning as winds have started to come back
up around 20 kts. Seas were running 6 to 8 ft. Conditions
are expected to drop below 2-0 kts w/seas subsiding to 4-5 ft
this afternoon into tonight.

SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected. A two to three
foot swell will be present much of the period. Fog is possible
Monday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Hewitt/MCW



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