Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 281817
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF-SHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR
WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS
CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH CURRENT WIND SPEED BELOW 10 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS
SWELL ENTERING WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS).
WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WITH STRONG BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS AND STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FOR WAVE
GRIDS WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL.


SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER


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