Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250418
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1218 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build
down from central Canada Saturday into Saturday night and crest over
the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the west
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update 1215 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point.
No other changes.

Previous discussion...
18Z sfc analysis showed warm front lift across the region
w/radar showing activity filling back in across central and
downeast areas. Activity was in the form of light snow w/very
light accumulations(< 1 inch) due to melting. Some sites across
northern Maine such as MLT and HUL seeing some light snow.
Temps across the central and downeast areas were tempered down a
bit today given the snow averaging the lower 30s. Temps should
warm a bit was precip lightens up. Further n, temps rose into
the upper 20s and lower 30s w/little or no snow. 12Z UA showed a
nice jet streak in the 850-700 mb layer helping to ignite the
first batch of snow. The 12Z run of the NAM and the latest HRRR
show this batch well and pushing as the warm front lifts n.

The next wave of snow will come this evening mainly affecting
the Downeast and southern Maine region. Kept 60-80% across
central and downeast areas this evening and then drop them off
sharply by midnight w/the loss of mid level forcing. Total
accumulations expected are in the 1-2 inch range w/highest
amounts across interior Downeast. Partial clearing later tonight
as the cold front pushes across the region. Overnight temps
forecast to be in the upper 20s across the n and w while central
and downeast will see low/mid 20s.

High pres is expected to slide east from central Canada on
Saturday. There should be a good deal of sunshine w/a nw breeze
of 10-15 mph. Despite the breeze, daytime temps should respond
to the March sunshine. Decided to go above the guidance on
Saturday maxes showing well into the 30s across n and w and
low to mid 40s central and downeast areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure building down from Canada will bring a starlit and
cold night Saturday night followed by a mostly sunny morning Sunday
morning. High pressure will crest over the region on Sunday bringing
tranquil conditions. Skies will begin mostly sunny. Some high
cloudiness streaming over the top of the ridge will dim sunshine a
bit during the afternoon. Clouds will then increase Sunday night
ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Some light snow may
begin to push into western and Downeast areas toward morning Monday
morning. Light snow is likely across the area on Monday as a weak
upper level shortwave and disorganized surface low moves through.
Precipitation amount`s looks like with only an inch or two of snow
expected over inland locations. With temperatures rising well into
the 30s, road surfaces should just be wet during the midday and
afternoon on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
One weak wave of low pressure will slide by to the east Monday night
with any snow tapering off to flurries and skies remaining cloudy
with low clouds lingering. Another weak upper level shortwave and
surface low will approach on Tuesday. Another round of light snow is
likely late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Boundary layer temperatures
will be warmer with this second system and snow will likely change
to rain across Downeast areas Tuesday night. Precipitation will end
Downeast on Wednesday. However, snow may linger across the north
into Wednesday afternoon. An inverted trough from developing low
pressure south of Nova Scotia will likely extend across the north
and combine with an upper low moving over the region to extend snow
or a mix of snow and rain across the north. The low will continue
east Wednesday night into Thursday as gusty northwest winds follow.
Flurries and lingering clouds are likely north with some clearing
Downeast. High pressure will build over the area Thursday night
bringing clearing and lighter winds. Another weak shortwave may
approach with clouds and some light precipitation on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR to low end VFR late this evening for FVE, CAR,
PQI, and HUL. IFR and LIFR conditions in snow at BGR, and rain
and snow at BHB. Conditions at all sites improving to VFR from
north to south overnight with VFR conditions Saturday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions in mostly clear skies are expected
Saturday night through Sunday. Conditions may lower to MVFR
Downeast late Sunday night and remain VFR across the north.
Mainly IFR conditions in low clouds are then likely Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect for the
coastal and intra-coastal waters. The wind will begin to
subside late this evening falling below SCA by around midnight.
Seas will remain above 5 FT until around 8 AM tomorrow across
the coastal waters. The wind and Seas will continue to subside
Saturday as higher pressure builds across the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds will be below SCA Saturday
night into Monday morning as high pressure crests over the
waters. A SCA may be needed late Monday into Monday night for
east southeast winds ahead of approaching low pressure. Winds
may diminish a bit on Tuesday as weak low pressure south of Nova
Scotia moves away and another small low begins to approach from
the Appalachians.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone



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