Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 010454
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM: WE XTNDED THAT AREAS OF FOG NWRD THRU THE REST OF THE FA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT...CNTRD OVR RVR VLY AREAS. ALSO...
WE ADJUSTED CLD CVR BASED ON LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY AND
FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST LOWS AT 5-6 AM BASED ON TRENDS SEEN FROM
MDNGT OBSVD TEMPS FROM PREV FCSTD TEMPS AT MDNGT.

PREV DISC: THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH CROSSED THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT IS NOW MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE FOG DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S NORTH...TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG COULD PERSIST
ALONG COASTAL AREAS DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE COLDER
WATERS. HUMID AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH SOME LOWER HEIGHTS FROM UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. TEMPS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST OF AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK AND RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 NORTH EXCEPT ONLY NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO START NEXT WEEK.  DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MID WEEK...HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY DOWNEAST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN PATCHY
NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA





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