Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 291337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD STREAMING
INTO THE STATE WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE 12Z UA
AND VAPOR IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH E THIS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THIN W/DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS.

SOME DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY, IT`S EXPECTED THAT A MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS AND ALONG THE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES FAR
NORTHERN MAINE/SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF A PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON LAKE
LINE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W
COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS
PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS
CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD
INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST...WEAKER OF THESE S/WVS AND COLD FRONTS FINISHES
CROSSING THE FA ON SUN WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA AND BARELY  IF ANY SFC COOLING. A SECOND... STRONGER S/WV
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MON WITH MORE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N...WITH ENOUGH BUILD UP OF SBCAPE MON AFTN
TO NEAR 500J/KG FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NE BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES
CROSSING THE REGION JUST PRIOR TO EVE. RNFL AMTS FROM SHWRS AHEAD
OF SUN`S OR MON`S COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE RN FROM
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK...SINCE NEITHER OF
THESE FRONTS WILL HAVE ANY DEEP TROP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

MON NGT AND TUE WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LIKELY MUCH
DRIER...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL COOL ADVCN
ACCOMPANYING POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SIG COOLER TEMPS LATE MON
NGT INTO TUE MORN...BUT WITH SOME RECOVERY TUE AFTN UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMP ADVCN THAT BECOMES NEUTRAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A FAIR AND LESS BREEZY/COOL TUE NGT...WED LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS FLEXES
TOWARD NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING THE NEXT WEAK
S/WV AND COLD FRONT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WED AFT OR ERLY WED
EVE...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER. OBVIOUSLY...A LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL ON WED WOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO WARM THE MOST...
AND THE ECMWF IMPLIES HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EVE ACROSS THE
LOWER TRRN OF THE N. MORE DYTM CLDNSS IMPLIED BY THE GFS WOULD
KEEP HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N NEAR 80 WHILE CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S. WE SHOW A CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS TO MSLY
N AND W PTNS OF THE FA WED AFT INTO ERLY EVE.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHC OF MSLY AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU
SPCLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. IF THE GFS IS MORE
ACCURATE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO FAR S OF THE FA FOR ANY
SHWRS IN OUR AREA. ATTM WE INDICATE COOLER HI TEMPS ON THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS ON FRI FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT AIR MASS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THESE DAYS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND PSN OF THE GREAT LKS UPPER
RIDGE RELATIVE TO OUR FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCAL MVFR IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBGR 08Z-
12Z THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBHB THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR ALL SITES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHWRS OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN...MON AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. WV HTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT COMMON ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE AND INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WENT WITH 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ALG THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN



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