Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231926
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 PM...UPDATE TO ADD TSTMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORTON/FOISY
MARINE...NORTON/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...NORTON






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