Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 252100
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA


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