Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231058
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
658 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place over the region today and
tonight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and
stall. The front will then lift back north Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7am update...No changes were made to the forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...
Low clouds along the coast associated with the remnants of Jose
will move out this morning. A powerful ridge of high pressure
aloft will generate strong subsidence over the area with
temperatures warming to records in the low to mid 80s. An
offshore flow will bring the 80s pretty close to the coast, but
right along the coast highs will be closer to 70F. A light
pressure gradient will promote a sea breeze this afternoon that
will reduce temperatures in the coastal zones. Dew points will
increase today with the temperatures...reaching the lower 60s by
mid-afternoon. Record highs will be possible at numerous
locations such as Bangor where the previous record high was just
80F. A warm front will cross tonight and further increase dew
points and temperatures aloft...setting the stage for even
warmer temperatures Sunday. This warm front will bring clouds to
northern zones later in the night and help cap lows near 60F.
In the southern half of the forecast area, where there will be
no clouds and less boundary layer wind, fog will likely form in
the moist air mass. Near the coast, light onshore winds will
bring lows into the mid 50s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move south across the region Sunday, then
stall across Downeast areas or the Gulf of Maine later Sunday
into Monday. Expect a chance of showers across mostly northern
areas Sunday, with an afternoon thunderstorm also possible.
Otherwise, expect generally partly sunny skies north with
partly/mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region,
Sunday. Partly cloudy skies are expected across the region
Sunday night. The stalled front will lift back north, in the
form of a warm front, later Monday into Monday night. Partly
cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers are expected
across northern areas Monday, with partly/mostly sunny skies
Downeast. Partly cloudy skies are expected across the region
Monday night, with still the slight chance of a shower across
northern areas. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels
Sunday/Monday.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The front could sink back across northern Maine Tuesday, then
lift back north again Wednesday. Generally expect partly cloudy
skies across the region Tuesday, with the slight chance of
showers across mostly northern areas. Mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers are expected across the region
Wednesday. Uncertainty then exists regarding the timing of a
cold front which will cross the region later Wednesday into
Thursday. Have kept a chance of showers across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. A more rapid frontal passage
would allow improving conditions later Thursday into Friday. A
slower frontal passage would keep better chances of showers
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday will
be dependent on the location of the front across northern Maine.
Temperatures Thursday/Friday will be dependent on the timing of
the cold front.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs are expected into mid-morning at BHB.
Otherwise, all terminals will have VFR conditions. Fog will be a
threat late tonight for southern terminals such as BGR and BHB.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible with any
showers or thunderstorms across northern areas Sunday.
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected across the
region Sunday through Tuesday. However, variable conditions
could occur with any fog overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions
are possible across the region Wednesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The SCA for Hazardous Seas will remain in place until
this evening when south swell decreases below the 5 ft criteria.
Seas will continue to diminish tonight.  Winds will be light.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Sunday into Sunday night. Seas could then reach
small craft advisory levels Monday into Monday night.
Visibilities will be reduced at times in fog Sunday into Sunday
night, then again later Monday night.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Extended the High Surf Advisory through this afternoon as long
period wave heights are expected to continue above the 5 ft
threshold.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross
Tides/Coastal Flooding...


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