Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 311310
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Canadian high
pressure will build into the region Wednesday, and will move east
of the area Thursday. Low pressure will pass to the north of the
area Friday sending a cold front into the Saint Lawrence River
Valley Friday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9am Update...No major changes were needed at this time. Did do
some minor updates to temps and QPF today based on recent short-
term data, but POPs looked good. Fog burned off at the coast on
schedule and TAFs look good as of now.

Previous discussion
Today will be continued unseasonably warm ahead of an approaching
short wave and associated cold front approaching from Quebec. The
airmass ahead of the approaching front is quite moist with dew
points early this morning in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
This has led to fog development, especially downeast where areas
of fog can be expected through the pre-dawn hours.

Otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies this morning will give way
to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon,
mainly north of the Katahdin region. Not expecting anything severe
since soundings indicate a cap around 10kft, which should limit
storm growth potential. That being said, the wind field aloft is
quite strong and if storms managed to break through the cap
damaging wind gusts would certainly possible with any storms. High
temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s across the
north and low to mid 80s central and downeast.

The cold front will reach the coast early this evening with skies
becoming mainly clear overnight. A much drier air mass will
filter into the region behind the front tonight with dew points
falling into the low to mid 40s, making for a rather comfortable
sleeping night. Low temperatures by morning will range from the
mid 40s to around 50 north and low to mid 50s downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday is shaping up the be the nicest day of the week.  A fresh
Canadian air mass will move into Maine as a sfc high builds out
of Quebec and into the region. There will be plenty of sunshine
and comfortably low humidity as dew points will mostly be in the
mid to upper 30s across far northern Maine to the 40s across the
Downeast region. Highs Wednesday afternoon will range from the
upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest across interior Downeast. The
surface high retreats in the Maritimes Wednesday night with the
low level flow turning onshore. This will likely lead to areas of
marine stratus and patchy fog that may move onshore, especially
after midnight and into Thursday morning. Confidence is not high
as to whether this marine layer will work north into Bangor and
the upslope areas of the central highlands. Low pressure moving
out of Ontario is expected to pass just south of James Bay by late
in the day Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will be coolest along
the coast and warmest well inland. It is expected to be a dry day
with the possible exception of spotty early morning drizzle in a
few spots along and near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface low passing south of James Bay Thursday evening moves
into northern Quebec Friday with a cold front to push into the
Saint Lawrence Valley by late in the day. Friday will be a cloudy
and more humid day with some showers around. Clouds and showers
will keep temps on the cool side with areas along the coast likely
to not get out of the 50s, and possibly across the central
highlands and far northern maine too, if the cloud cover is dense
enough. Once the front pushes through Friday evening a mainly dry
weekend is expected, but the model do diverge a bit later in the
weekend with the ECMWF bringing in a low from the southwest and
the chance of showers by Sunday afternoon. A +PNA/-NAO pattern
takes shape for the first half of next week with ridging across
the western conus with a trough in the east. This will lead to an
unsettled pattern with clouds and showers at times. Temperatures
will likely be below average for highs, but not all that cool at
night owing to cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Areas of fog can be expected this morning with
LIFR/VLIFR conditions expected thru about 12z at KBGR/KBHB.
Elsewhere, expect MVFR and local IFR in patchy fog at the northern
terminals. Conditions should improve to VFR all terminals by, or
shortly after 12z. Expect sct showers and even an isld tstm at
the northern terminals this afternoon. With any storms expected to
be isld in nature, will not mention in TAF. All terminals will be
VFR tonight with north winds 5 to 10 kt.

SHORT TERM: Vfr at all northern and eastern Maine terminals
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Conditions may lower to ifr late
Wed night into Thu morning in marine stratus and patchy fog,
mainly at the Downeast terminals. Conditions will likely improve
to mvfr in the afternoon. More low stratus and ifr are possible
Thursday night at the Downeast terminals, with vfr to at times
mvfr in sct -shra Fri. Predominately vfr Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should generally remain below small craft
advisory levels through tonight. Visibility may be reduced to 1 nm
or less in areas of fog this morning then become unlimited.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels Wednesday through Friday. The visibility
maybe reduced at times in fog late Wednesday night through
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Kredensor
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Duda/Kredensor/CB
Marine...Duda/Kredensor/CB



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