Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230347
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MODIFIED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN EASTERN AREAS WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR SO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BLYR
MIXED TO ALLEVIATE  RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN IN WIND PROTECTED
VALLEYS. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS... HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG BLO AVG. SKIES WILL INITIALLY BEGIN MSLY
SUNNY...BUT THEN CLD UP SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE N BY AFTN...WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AS ANOTHER MID LVL VORT MAX
CROSSES EWRD FROM QB ERLY TUE AFTN. ONCE THIS FEATURES SLIDES E
ALG WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...SKIES SHOULD CLR LATER IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE N AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/AND GEM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BY WED MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA...THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY
TEMP/DP MAX/MIN FOR TUES. MAX WED. USED ADJMEL FOR MIN WED. THE
BLENDED MIN WAS TO WARM. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE, SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU TUE WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC MVFR SC DECK INTO ERLY THIS EVE AT KFVE.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BGR AND BHB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SE WASHINGTON COUNTY. BECOMING PC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITION WITH CLEAR TO PC SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS..WITH COOL NIGHT WILL
CAUSE MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND BODIES OF
WATER. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE BELIEVE WV HTS HAVE NEARLY MAXED OUT OVR OUR WATERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN PULSE OF OPEN ATLC SWELLS THIS MID
AFTN AS WSW WIND SPEEDS REACH NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONT SCA TIL
12Z TUE AS EARLIER PLANNED FOR NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW QUICKLY WV
HTS AND WINDS DIMINISH OVRNGT...SPCLY LATE.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID TUE MORN
AND THEN CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REST OF THE DAY TUE. KEPT CLOSE
WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH DESPITE ITS SLOW START THIS MORN...APPEARS
VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL OBSVD WV HTS THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT







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