Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231128
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
628 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of the maritimes today while high
pressure crosses the region. An upper level disturbance will
bring some cloudiness and possible flurries and isolated snow
showers to mostly northwest portions of the region tonight
followed by brief high pressure for Friday morning. Stronger low
pressure tracking toward James Bay Canada will bring more
cloudiness and possible snow and rain showers across the north
Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:28 am update...The stratocu has been holding tough overnight
and early this morning from the Katahdin Region north to the
Saint John Valley. It looks like the lower clouds will hang in
this morning across the northern half of the CWA, and confidence
on them breaking up much this afternoon is low. The biggest
change at this time was to increase the cloud cover
significantly this morning across the northern zones. Otherwise,
just some minor tweaks to the forecast elements based on the
latest observations.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure lifting north of Nova Scotia early this morning
will track to the Strait of Belle Isle this evening. High
pressure across the Ohio Valley will settle toward the Delmarva
by tonight. A cold front near James Bay this morning will push
into far northern Maine by 12Z Friday. Today will be a decent
day weather-wise for Thanksgiving with at least partial sunshine
and diminishing wind. There is still a lot of lower clouds and
a few flurries in northern areas early this morning, but the
clouds should break up some by daybreak. Highs will range from
the upper 20s in the Saint John Valley to the mid to upper 30s
in the Bangor Region and along the coast. Clouds will increase
late today and tonight ahead of the approaching front, and
temperatures will be seasonably cold. An isolated snow or
flurries could work into northern Somerset County late in the
evening or overnight, but it is unlikely to amount to more than
a dusting, if a snow shower were to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This ptn of the fcst will start msly fair and seasonally cold
Fri morn with increasing cldnss across msly Nrn ptns of the FA
Fri aftn as llvl warm advcn begins ahead of strong low pres
tracking from the upper midwest into Ont prov toward James Bay
Can. Attm...it appears most precip will be N and W of our FA Fri
ngt and Sat morn until a cold front apchg from the W brings a
chc of aftn shwrs. Warm advcn ahead of the cold front will bring
most low trrn lctns into the mild 40s for hi temps Sat, so
shwrs may be msly rn Sat aftn, chgng back to sn shwrs Sat ngt
and Sun as colder air returns and an upper trof apchs. In any
event, precip amts look to be very lgt for our Rgn from this
system attm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...Weak Zonal s/wvs from Cntrl Can will cont to prevail the
upper air pattern ovr our Rgn...

After additional flurries and isold to sct sn shwrs msly
across the N Sun ngt and erly Mon morn as the last of upper lvl
troffiness crosses the Rgn, the remainder of Mon and Mon eve
looks to be fair and cold. Clds will again increase late Mon ngt
as a warm front apchs from the W with again lgt sct rn/sn shwrs
for msly Nrn ptns of the Rgn on Tue as milder air arrives into
the Rgn. Models then disagree with the tmg of any other
subsequent s/wv from Cntrl Can for Wed and Thu, so PoPs were
kept in the low chc category, although all msly agree about
temps being at or below avg these two days.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR this morning at the northern terminals from
KHUL to KFVE. Confidence is not high on whether or not the
ceilings will lift to VFR this afternoon, but it is possible.
Conditions should improve to VFR by this evening. VFR expected
today and tonight at the Downeast terminals.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd at our TAF sites with
intervals of MVFR SC clgs across Nrn TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind will diminish today as low pressure pulls away
from the region, but gusts over 25 knots are expected until
late morning and have extended the small craft advisory until
10 am.  The seas are likely to remain borderline for a small
craft advisory through late this afternoon or early evening on
the coastal waters with seas around 5 feet. Both the wind and
seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels
tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will vary from no hdln to SCA
conditions, with SCA conditions most likely late Fri ngt thru
Sat and possibly again late Sun aftn thru Mon morn. Went with a
blend of WW3 and NWPS wv guidance for fcst wv hts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...CB/VJN
Marine...CB/VJN


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