Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
315 AM MST Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warmer temperatures and generally light
winds this Memorial Day weekend as high pressure builds over
Arizona. An increase in moisture by Monday will produce a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through much of next


.DISCUSSION...For today and Sunday look for warmer temperatures
and generally light winds as high pressure gradually builds over
Arizona from the west. A weak shortwave trough will brush the
Arizona/Utah border today with just enough moisture for a few
cloud buildups during the afternoon. Any activity will amount to
no more than some virga or a stray sprinkle.

From Monday into Thursday...High pressure will continue to build
over Arizona until Thursday when a trough axis will swing across
the state. Until then, moisture will nudge upward as flow from
over New Mexico as well as from over the Gulf of California
trickles across Arizona. The bit of extra moisture will be just
enough when combined with daytime heating to produce a better
chance of thunderstorms. The deepest moisture will be in the
vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border where the best chance
of showers and storms will reside. For the remainder of Arizona
only slight chances. The final day for any real chance of showers
will likely be on Thursday as a trough moves across the state.

Beyond Thursday...A drier westerly flow will set up over Arizona.
Flow will continue to bring some moisture northward from the Gulf
of California but this moisture will likely be overwhelmed by the
dry westerlies aloft. Pretty typical stuff as we slowly make our
way toward the monsoon.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear
skies will continue over northern Arizona for the next 24 hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak trough of low pressure will brush
northern Arizona with maybe an isolated shower or two over The
Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau. Winds will generally be lighter
than we have seen the past few days. Daytime temperatures will
warm a few degrees each day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect a cooling trend and a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms each day.






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