Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231111
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
411 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A winter storm will impact northern Arizona through
Monday night with additional moderate to heavy snow accumulations
above the 6000 foot level, with lighter amounts down to 5000 feet.
Expect hazardous driving conditions due to snow and blowing snow.
Strong gusty winds are also expected north of the Mogollon Rim
Monday afternoon and evening. Precipitation will wind down
Tuesday with very cold temperatures continuing through at least
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some light amounts of precipitation has continued to fall through
the overnight hours ahead of the slug of moisture that is slowly
moving across California and Nevada and into Arizona. This
moisture will constitute the bulk of the potential precipitation
responsible for the winter weather highlights across the high
country. The most active time for precipitation is expected to be
through the daytime hours Today before decreasing Tonight and
early Tuesday morning. With the system arriving slightly slower
than previous model runs were showing some snow amounts have
decreased only slightly with decent deep moisture layer during the
bulk of this storm.

The winds associated with the cold frontal passage will occur
later in the day Monday with peak winds expected afternoon and
through the evening hours. These winds are expected to be strong
and gusty, especially across the higher terrain of Northern
Arizona. This not only create blowing snow from the falling
precipitation in the high country, but also have the potential to
pick up and lift snow from the previous storms.

Visibilities are expected to be significantly limited during
these times of stronger winds. A wind advisory has been issued
from 11 am through 5 pm today across the bulk of the high country
not already seeing winter weather highlights due to these strong
winds.

After the system passes Tuesday drying conditions are expected to
develop with cold northerly flow dominating the weather pattern
for the rest of the week. Temperatures are hinting at warming back
toward seasonal values early next week. Until then, this looks to
be the longest cold-snap so far this season with some locations
seeing the coldest temperatures so far this winter.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Areas of rain and snow will
continue across northern Arizona over the next 24 hours with
widespread LIFR/IFR conditions expected, especially across the
higher terrain. An exception to this is in the Little Colorado River
Valley northeast of the Mogollon Rim, where ceilings and
visibilities will predominately be in the MVFR flight category. In
addition, strong winds will accompany this system, with wind gusts
in the 25 to 40 knot range this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ004-006>008-
015-016-018.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
FOR AZZ004-007>010-012>014-016-040.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR
AZZ011-039.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 5 AM MST Tuesday FOR
AZZ017.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...KD


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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