Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING. PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT AND MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE MODERATELY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SW
ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/WV DUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS NEXT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST FEW RUNS
AND CONFIDENCE CONCERNING PLACEMENT IS LOW. 00Z GFS AND EURO RUNS
BROUGHT VERY COLD AIR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE STATE...WHICH
COUNTERED EARLIER RUNS. THE 06Z GFS IN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AGAIN.

FOR NOW...WE WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FROM
18Z-06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.