Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 240313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
813 PM MST Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm weather through Monday. Gusty
afternoon winds are expected through the week. There is a chance
of light showers across northeast Arizona on Tuesday. A colder
and wetter system may impact the northland starting Friday.
.UPDATE... A typical windy Spring day was observed across northern
Arizona today. Wind gusts were generally in the 35 to 45 mph
range with the strongest near Flagstaff northwest. Wind speeds are
decreasing this evening and will continue to do so, though local
areas will remain breezy overnight. No major forecast updates
needed and the Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning for today have
.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...For Monday...Another approaching
trough will produce strong winds, with the focus shifting to
Navajo and Apache counties. A Wind Advisory is in effect Monday
afternoon for much of these counties as west southwest winds from
25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected. Elsewhere speeds to
run from 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph.
Tuesday-Thursday...The general pattern of troughing will persist.
Models are now showing cooler air pushing in from the north for
Tuesday. There will be enough upward motion and cooling for a
slight chance of showers over far northeast Arizona. Daytime
temperatures will warm a bit on Wednesday and Thursday as the
second trough moves eastward. Behind the trough, breezy afternoon
conditions will continue with winds shifting to a more
Starting Friday...The GFS and European model forecasts continue
to show a strong late season trough and cold front dropping
southward into our area Friday and settling in for Saturday. High
and low temperature forecasts were moved downward, though not to
the raw values from todays 12z output. Precipitation chances were
increased, with the best chances along the Mogollon Rim and
across the northeast quarter of the state. Stay tuned.
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions under variable
high clouds over the next 24 hours. Winds generally 5-15 KT
overnight. Southwest wind increasing again after 16Z Mon to
15-25 KT. Gusts 30-40 KT along/north of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Strong winds will re-develop Monday for most
areas along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim where a Red Flag
Warning has been issued. Breezy west winds develop Tuesday but
minimum humidities are forecast to remain above critical values
and there is a slight chance of showers in northeast Arizona.
Wednesday through Friday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west
winds each day. Daytime humidity forecast to remain above critical
thresholds in most areas. Slight chance of showers in northeast AZ
Wednesday night through Thursday. Increasing chance of showers and
cooler on Friday.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ109>114-
Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MST Monday FOR AZZ011-013-014-
For Northern Arizona weather information visit