Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281658
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
958 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...MAINLY RAISING THEM A BIT ALONG THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA AROUND PAGE
AS WELL AS FOR SOUTH FACING SLOPES ABOVE 6500 FEET WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL LIKELY SATURATE LOW LEVEL AIR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /545 AM MST/...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE
OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND JET IS
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. WE HAVE REPORTS OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE VALLEY AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN
NORTHEAST AZ THROUGH NOON...AND SEVERAL INCHES FOR THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF SOUTH ALONG THE RIM. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6500 FT IN THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA TO 7000-8000 FEET OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC
TEMPS BEING MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY TODAY WITH
GUSTS 40-55 MPH IN MANY AREAS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11
AM TO 7 PM.

FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z RUNS FROM LAST EVENING THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW DIVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...BRINGING A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...AND
PULLING IN SOME WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ON
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA
WESTWARD...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING TO 7000-7500 FEET IN
THE FLAGSTAFF AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BAND WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 6000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT.

TO SUMMARIZE...SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH
TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM/WHITE MTNS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL.
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION DOWN TO THE 6000
FOOT LEVEL. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW THROUGH MONDAY OF
1-3+ INCHES WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO STREAMS AND
RIVERS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT THIS
LOOKS MOSTLY LIGHT. COLD TEMPS STICK AROUND TUE/WED...THEN WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND 70 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
KPRC-KGUP WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM NEAR 5500 FT MSL ALONG THE
UT BORDER TO AROUND 7500 FT MSL NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR COMMON...LCL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND AREAS
DOWNWIND OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...RANGING FROM 20-30 KTS GUSTING AROUND
40 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ007-011>016-
040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
AZZ009>011-039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AZZ004.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/JJ
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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