Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241648
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions and below normal temperature
today. A passing trough will bring increasing clouds, breezy
westerly winds and a slight chance for snow showers along
Arizona`s northern border overnight. Expect dry conditions and
warming temperatures Sunday and Monday, before another winter
weather system brings colder weather and increasing chances for
rain and snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Clouds have been slow to clear Apache County this
morning and have updated cloud cover grids for that area. The next
rapidly moving trough to brush northern Arizona tonight is
currently over northern California and Nevada. We will see
increasing clouds by this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /454 AM MST/...For today, dry conditions are
forecast across norther Arizona in the wake of the cold winter
weather system that brought widespread snowfall to the area.
Otherwise, expect well below normal daytime temperatures along
with mostly clear skies and light westerly breezes.

Later tonight, a shortwave trough will cross northern Arizona
bringing increasing cloud cover and slight chances for snow
showers along the Arizona/Utah border. In addition, tightening
pressure gradients will keep breezy winds continuing through the
overnight hours, especially at locations along and east of higher
terrain features.

Expect dry conditions and warming temperatures on Sunday and
Monday, although below normal temperatures will continue at most
places. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will dive down the
west coast resulting in a return of gusty southwest winds by
Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, the low is forecast to move across
the area bringing increasing chances for rain and snow. This
system will likely arrive a bit wetter and warmer due to its
coastal trajectory. While the exact path this low will take is
uncertain, it looks like the best chances for precipitation will
be from the Mogollon Rim south. Early snow level forecasts
suggest the possibility of snow down to 4000-5000 feet. This
winter weather system is forecast to exit the area by late
Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions forecast for the rest of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. Til 21Z areas of MVFR with local IFR cigs across Apache
County. Sfc winds southwest 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts
becoming lighter after 02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... The cold frontal boundary that brought gusty
southwest winds and mountain snow has moved across northern Arizona
with snow showers gradually coming to an end. Precipitation will end
for all areas by Saturday morning with cool temperatures through the
weekend.

Monday through Wednesday...Monday and Tuesday will remain mostly dry
and cool before another storm system approaches from the west coast
of California Monday bringing a return of breezy conditions. As the
system tracks across northern Arizona Tuesday, there will be another
chance for rain and snow showers to the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/RR
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...ET


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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