Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310406
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. DUE TO
WET CONDITIONS PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WAS ROTATING OVER THE
ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDERS DURING THE EVENING. FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALLOWING MOISTURE/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE STREAMING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WET CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GRAND CANYON-FLAGSTAFF-PAYSON. WEST OF
THIS LINE, DRIER/COOLER AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY LIGHTER AND WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE. THE SNOW LEVEL
COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 7000 FEET BY EARLY MORNING WITH AN INCH OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST, SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND A WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR THE 8000 FOOT LEVEL. ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARIZONA A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS LOWERED THE SNOW LEVEL TO THE
6000-7000 FOOT RANGE. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS/WINDOW ROCK AREA WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW IN EFFECT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR DETAILS.

LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK...THE STORM CENTER WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ON
THE DECREASE ENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA FIRST BUT LINGERING
OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BRINGING DRY
WEATHER TO ARIZONA. GROUND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FEET. PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 011 THROUGH 5 PM
SATURDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 8500 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017
THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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