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000
FXUS64 KFWD 130837
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DISTINCT UPPER LOW TREKKING
EAST ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER
MAKER TODAY AS IT CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND THEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP OVER A FEW OF
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE COOL AIRMASS OVER
NORTH TEXAS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRAWS NEARER...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN WEST OF I-35 THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH TEXAS BY MID DAY.

MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 50 KTS BY 18Z...AND FEEL
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPGLIDE ALONE WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ALL AREAS TODAY...EVEN THOUGH LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO THE INTRA-CLOUD VARIETY WHILE REMAINING FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
THE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...LEAVING OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MODEST AT BEST.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
WITH A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
RAINFALL SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY DEVELOPS
ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK. AFTER A CHILLY
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD FINALLY REACH 60 ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY. MID AND UPPER 60S WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. MID RANGE MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY A
ROUND OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING IS
LIKELY JUST BEYOND THE DAY 7 PERIOD...WHICH MEANS THAT DETAILS ON
JUST HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE ARE STILL SKETCHY.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  39  45  30  53 /  50  20   5   5   5
WACO, TX              49  40  49  29  55 /  50  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  38  45  26  49 /  70  30  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            45  37  44  27  52 /  50  20   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          44  38  45  27  51 /  50  30   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            46  39  46  30  52 /  50  20   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  39  47  28  51 /  60  30   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         48  41  49  29  53 /  60  30   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            50  39  51  30  56 /  40  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     48  35  47  25  56 /  40  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$