Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 040458 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...CONTINUED VFR. PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

HIGH-BASED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
OVERNIGHT. AT BEST...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN
SPRINKLES...WITH A DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER STILL IN PLACE. MORE
WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FIND AN INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE...MEASURABLE RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT ENCROACH ON WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITES.

A SEASONALLY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO VARY IN DIRECTION.
MORE ORGANIZED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ENSUE TUESDAY MORNING...
BUT THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW 12KTS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED THIS EVENING. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ALONG AND
NORTH OF A DENTON TO BONHAM LINE.


DESPITE FAIRLY PERSISTENT RADAR ECHOES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REVEALED THAT LITTLE PRECIP WAS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. 00
UTC FWD RAOB CONFIRMED THAT THE DRY AIR OVER THE LOWEST 3 KM OF
THE TROPOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THINK
THAT THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
STRUGGLE AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR NW ZONES. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP WITH A MENTION OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH SPRINKLES A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND EXPANDED THIS AREA A
TAD TO THE EAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

BAIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
WATER VAPOR LOOP TODAY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH
UTAH AND INTO WYOMING. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY
EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTH TEXAS DUE TO VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE CRITICAL 700MB TO 900MB
LAYER. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED ABOVE
700MB WITH SOME MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THIS MEANS A FEW
ELEVATED WEAK SHOWERS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 10 PERCENT...EVEN
THOUGH THE RADAR SHOULD HAVE A MORE PROMISING PRESENTATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE WE WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. THE AIRMASS
OVER NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE TO NO CIN IN MANY AREAS. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH...IT IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT CAN RESULT IN
UNFORECASTED CONVECTION. HAVE SHOWN 10 POPS DOWN TO I-20 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STRAY POP-UP CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AIRMASS. IF THERE IS BETTER FORCING FARTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS SUGGEST...IT WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE.
ASIDE FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIAL THERE IS ANOTHER
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES LATE FRIDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...JUST THE GFS BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE
CWA...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE WORDED FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
HEAT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SPEND MOST OF THIS WEEK TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF TURNING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAG A BLOB OF VERY
WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM WEST TEXAS INTO OUR AREA. SO
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR
100 FOR MOST NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
HIGH DOES NOT BUILD IN OVER OUR AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
RANGE FROM 99 TO 104 ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...THE CONSENSUS
OF MODEL SOURCES SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 103 TO 109
RANGE...AND NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES NOW...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80 100  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              76 100  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   5   0
PARIS, TX             74  97  76  99  76 /   5  10   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            75  98  78 100  77 /  10  10   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  78  99  79 /   5  10   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80 100  81 101  81 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           75  99  77  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74 100  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  97  76  99  76 /   5  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/15


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