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000
FXUS64 KFWD 292233
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites
through 06z Saturday. With an upper level ridge over West Texas
and a large upper level low over the Ohio River Valley, expect dry
weather to continue across North and Central Texas. Surface winds
will be northerly at 5 to 10 knots through the forecast period.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/
The weather across North and Central Texas will be dry and mild
through early next week as upper level high pressure remains over the
region and the Gulf remains cut off. Temperatures Friday and
Saturday will be below seasonal normals with lows generally in the
50s and highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures
Sunday and Monday will be much closer to seasonal normals with
highs in the middle 80s and lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Low level moisture will begin to increase on Tuesday in response
to a developing low pressure system across the western CONUS. The
increase in moisture will bring warmer and more humid conditions
along with an increase in cloud cover.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin across the western counties
of North Texas Tuesday afternoon when a dryline approaches from
the west. Low level moisture and shear should be supportive of
strong storms. However, it is much too early to determine how far
east the dryline will mix, how much instability will be available
and how strong the cap will be. The dryline will begin to retreat
to the west after sunset but a fast moving cold front will
overtake it Tuesday night and sweep across the region on
Wednesday. Lift along the cold front coupled with large scale lift
from the upper low will bring a quick shot of showers and
thunderstorms across North and Central Texas. The extended models
continue to differ on the strength and track of the upper low so
for now we will keep PoPs in the 20 to 30 percent range. Once the
front moves through on Wednesday, much drier and cooler air will
filter into the region and remain in place through the weekend.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  78  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                54  79  56  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              52  77  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            53  77  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              57  79  60  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             54  79  56  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           55  78  58  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              54  79  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       51  77  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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