Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270827
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Our first wave of showers and thunderstorms has moved east of the
I-35 corridor early this morning. This activity continues to
weaken as it outruns the stronger upper forcing and its low-level
moisture intake becomes interrupted by the thunderstorms located
further to the south near the I-10 corridor. A wake low from this
MCS has begun to produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph in areas
behind the precipitation shield, and would expect this trend to
continue through the next couple hours.

The next wave of convection has taken shape to our west and has
already moved into our western counties from Jacksboro to Cisco
as of 3am. These storms are being fueled by the low-level jet and
associated intense moisture transport underneath a plume of steep
lapse rates aloft. Much like the first wave, this second MCS will
have essentially unlimited moisture to feed on as it moves
eastward and affects a large portion of North and Central Texas
this morning.

Despite previous convection, a favorable environment for
convection remains in place across the region with MUCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg still in place. A capping inversion is in place
and this system is primarily elevated, but getting a good handle
on the strength of the cap has been a challenge. Some areas may
manage to see strong wind gusts from embedded bowing segments this
morning if any of the more intense winds are able to make it down
to the surface. DYX radar was showing some 40 to 50 kt winds in
the lowest 2500 ft as the line passed through the RDA location,
but reported gusts at the surface have been considerably less.
Otherwise, some small hail will will be possible with the most
intense updrafts. Overall, the severe threat with this morning`s
MCS seems quite low at this time. This system should affect the
I-35 corridor for the morning commute, between 5 and 8am, and will
impact our eastern areas through mid-morning.

Flooding continues to be the primary concern this morning as the
aforementioned moisture transport has resulted in PW values of
1.6-1.9in across the area which are around +2SD above normal. All
thunderstorms will continue to be efficient rainfall producers and
flash flooding is likely wherever cell training occurs. Do not
plan to expand the Flash Flood Watch at this time with the highest
flood threat still expected to be primarily across Central TX,
although isolated flooding issues are possible outside of the
Watch today.

After our morning MCS rolls through some clearing may occur by
late morning or early afternoon. With the main trough axis still
positioned to our west, there should still be some large-scale
ascent over our region. The dynamic lift from the approaching
shortwave will probably need to contend with residual subsidence
from our morning complex, which may act to inhibit the amount of
lift in our area later today. In the wake of this morning`s MCS,
skies may go broken to scattered or even mostly sunny in a few
spots by late morning or early afternoon. Would expect daytime
heating to be sufficient to allow the atmosphere to recover and
become increasingly unstable again by early this afternoon.
Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible essentially area-wide, especially during peak heating
today. If they are able to develop, buoyancy and shear will be
sufficient for some strong to severe storms which would pose a
wind, hail, and tornado threat. The shortwave should depart the
area this evening and any remaining activity should taper off from
west to east by tonight.

While large-scale subsidence due to upper ridging should dominate
the region on Saturday, ample instability from continued gulf
moisture transport combined with daytime heating with clearing
skies will still be of concern. Coarser models have been depicting
a weakness aloft across southern/Central TX on Saturday afternoon
which may allow some storms to develop across parts of our Central
TX counties at a minimum. Have maintained low PoPs with very
little coverage expected from any activity on Saturday. Slight
chances for thunderstorms will continue on Sunday as weak ridging
aloft is replaced by broad troughiness over the western CONUS, but
this should not be enough to completely ruin any outdoor holiday
weekend plans.

Greater rain chances return to the forecast on Monday, Memorial
Day, as a deeper trough nears the area and an upper jet noses into
the region. Some guidance has been persistently developing an MCS
in the TX Panhandle on Sunday evening and rolling it through our
area Sunday night and Monday morning. This seems like a reasonable
solution, but we`ll have to see how the hi-res guidance handles
the evolution once this is within the forecast time range.

A slow-evolving weather pattern for the rest of next week means
that there will be chances for showers and storms every single day
with a cloudy and rainy start to the month of June. Extended
guidance continues to show a weak front entering TX around midweek
and then stalling this feature through Central TX. This would only
act to increase our rain chances through the end of the week
should this solution materialize. It is still far into the
forecast to assess severe weather potential, but limited shear may
act to preclude a widespread severe weather threat, especially
towards the end of the week.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Widespread convective weather extends from Kansas to Central Texas
in association with the impressive looking upper trough over
CO/NM. The line of storms which raked the Dallas-Fort Worth area
has weakened. However, good lift associated with the upper trough
continues to overspread the area in waves, an we continue to see
training thunderstorms between the DFW and Waco areas. The latest
TAF set will include a TEMPO for ts at KACT through 09z to
account for the southward shifting line of storms. Thunder in the
Metroplex should cease in another hour or two.

The HRRR advertises another round of convection prior to sunrise
as the next impulse rotates across the region. This is certainly
possible as we are seeing additional thunderstorms develop over
west-central TX. Chances are that this activity would remain more
isolated in nature due to the atmosphere being so worked over
from this evening`s storms.

Other guidance such as the Texas Tech WRF are indicating that
tonight`s activity will shift east of the region by sunrise, and
that additional storms will be possible again by Friday afternoon
as the trough shifts into the Plains. We will also have peak
heating going for us at this time, so another VCTS has been added
to all areas for Friday afternoon. These storms should move east
of the area around midnight tomorrow night as the upper trough
axis shifts east of the Plains.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  71  88  71  85 /  80  30  20  20  20
Waco                85  71  88  70  85 /  70  30  20  30  20
Paris               79  68  86  69  85 /  70  40  30  10  20
Denton              82  68  87  68  84 /  70  30  20  20  20
McKinney            80  69  87  69  85 /  80  30  20  20  20
Dallas              83  72  89  72  87 /  80  30  20  20  20
Terrell             81  70  88  70  85 /  80  30  20  20  20
Corsicana           83  71  88  70  85 /  80  30  30  20  20
Temple              85  70  87  70  83 /  60  30  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       85  67  88  69  84 /  50  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

$$



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