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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231209 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY 16Z AS LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO DEEPENS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE DRY LINE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES
BY 08Z. AROUND THAT SAME TIME SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL ALSO SPREAD
IN FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE 08-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST 14-15Z... THEN
AROUND TO THE WEST BY 18Z THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 19-21Z THURSDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS FORECASTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
WEST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE UPPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. STORM MOTIONS TODAY SHOULD
BE IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
FORECASTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INCREASING CIN THIS
EVENING WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO
THE CWA...BUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS...ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7.5C/KM AND CANT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE MID-
LEVELS WILL DRY AFTER 12Z...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LITTLE FORCING. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG. TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...VERSUS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED TODAY.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. THIS NEXT
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...BUT
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE DRYLINE ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE IN WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...LIMITING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST AND THIS IS OUR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PUSHING
THE DRYLINE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. AT 12Z SUNDAY ITS FORECASTED
POSITION IS NEAR ABILENE AND BY 18Z IT IS FORECASTING THE DRYLINE
TO BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS A COMMON PROBLEM WITH ITS
FORECASTS OF DRYLINES AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN WHAT IT IS FORECASTING. TO COMPARE...THE ECMWF HAS THE DRYLINE
ALONG I-35 AND THE CANADIAN POSITIONS IT WEST OF I-35 AT 18Z
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ELIMINATION OF THE CAP BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION FOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE MONDAY MORNING AND COOLER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN OMEGA
BLOCK WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW TO STALL AND DEEPEN EAST OF
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTH FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  67  83  60  87 /   0  30  10   0   0
WACO, TX              86  65  82  61  86 /   0  20  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             82  63  78  55  82 /   0  20  20   5   5
DENTON, TX            86  67  82  53  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  69  81  51  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  67  82  61  86 /   0  20  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  66  81  57  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  66  83  62  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  65  84  62  86 /   0  20  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  64  83  54  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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