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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
RAN AN UPDATE TO RECONFIGURE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIR AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.

HAMPSHIRE



&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DIVED SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS MINIMAL...BUT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AIRPORTS...WILL CONTINUE TO VCTS UNTIL 1Z.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL IMPACT WACO AFTER
00Z AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. AFTER
STORMS DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY WITH JUST SOME SCT
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

HAMPSHIRE



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSED WARM FRONT IS HARD TO SEE IN THE MASS FIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM CENTERVILLE AND
PALESTINE TO GLEN ROSE AND OLNEY REVEAL WHERE IT LIKELY IS
POSITIONED. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THEN
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF MOST OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM GLEN ROSE TO CENTERVILLE...WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM THE MCS STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

AFTER THE CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE SOME EAST TEXAS STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY SLIDE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
10-14 POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AREA TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
LATE SEASON BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OR AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE
GULF...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE GOES.      75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  74  95  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              74  93  73  94  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  91  72 /  20  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  92  73  91  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          72  91  72  92  71 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  94  76  95  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           73  92  73  93  73 /  20   5   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  93  73  93  73 /  20   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  93  72  93  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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