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000
FXUS64 KFWD 251758 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR prevails at the Metroplex sites early this afternoon, and Waco
will be following suit over the next few hours. We should see
additional isolated to scattered showers bubble with the heating
of the afternoon across Central Texas, and will prevail a mention
of VCSH in the Waco TAF to account for this potential into the
early evening. While we can`t rule out a stray lightning strike or
two with this activity, instability and lift appear insufficient
to warrant a mention of thunder at this time. Easterly surface
winds around 8 to 12 kts today will slowly continue to veer around
to favor a more southeasterly direction through the afternoon and
evening hours.

Moisture will then begin to slosh back towards the north and west
overnight, and this may allow low cigs to build up along and west
of the I-35 corridor towards daybreak on Monday. Opted to
introduce MVFR cigs within a TEMPO group for all sites except
KDAL. Cigs will then diurnally lift through the mid-late morning
hours. A large thunderstorm complex is expected to be ongoing
across West Texas Monday morning, but this will likely be diving
towards the south, away from area TAF sites. Afternoon popcorn
convection may then get going across the region, but convective
coverage appears far too low to warrant VCTS at any sites at this
time.

Carlaw

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/
Quick update this morning to trim sky cover across the northern
half of the CWA as morning stratus continues to thin and sink off
to the south. Bumped high temperatures upwards by a couple
degrees most everywhere except across our Central Texas counties
where cloud cover will remain in better supply closer to a remnant
stalled front. Otherwise, low PoPs will remain confined generally
south of the I-20 corridor today as low-level moisture drops of
precipitously the farther north you go. Very weak flow through the
troposphere and rather limited instability (generally <1000 J/kg)
confined within a very skinny CAPE profile should keep any thunder
potential fairly isolated today. Very brief bouts of heavier rain
will be possible with the heavier showers. Activity moving out of
the Texas Panhandle will decay/move off to the west of the region
this afternoon.

Carlaw

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/
In western and northern zones, a few locations have dipped into
the 60s early this morning, a treat for late June. However, the
northerly winds will begin veering today, signaling an end to the
cold advection. The onset of a warming trend will be somewhat
offset by cloud cover. Despite some abatement of the humidity
within the postfrontal air, considerable moisture remains above
the frontal inversion. Temperatures will still reach the mid 80s
in many areas this afternoon. The only locations that could
struggle to top 80 degrees will be in across our southern zones,
where the proximity of the frontal boundary will mean both more
persistent cloudiness and scattered showers/storms.

Showers and thunderstorms have quickly developed early this
morning within East Texas, where the cross-boundary component of
850mb moisture is maximized. New development is occurring as far
west as the I-45 corridor, and additional development is likely
later this morning. The bulk of the convective activity will
remain south of the surface front, deep within the maritime
tropical air mass. But with a lingering weakness in the mid-levels
from the Sunday morning deluge, renewed development is expected
across the southern half of our CWA today as the postfrontal air
begins eroding and surface heating destabilizes the boundary
layer. This type of summer setup leads to generally unorganized
convection with weak updrafts, thus showers should outnumber
thunderstorms. Lightning will be the primary hazard for outdoor
activities today, but a downpour on already soaked ground could
renew some flooding issues.

A similar scenario may play out on Monday with steadily rising
temperatures. In addition, as northwest flow aloft becomes better
organized, upstream activity (or its convectively-induced
vorticity) may enter the region, allowing for rain chances farther
north, particularly in areas west of the I-35 corridor. This
pattern will prevail again on Tuesday, but the lack of any well
defined impulse should mean that sunshine dominates. By Wednesday
and Thursday, ridging will begin impinging on the region though a
col or inverted trough will dominate across the Texas coast.
Afternoon convection, akin to sea breeze activity, may affect
portions of Central and East Texas.

It still appears that another cold front could approach late in
the week, but extended guidance is trending farther north with the
southern extent of the associated mid-level trough. Considerable
climatology is working against the earlier solutions, and we have
trended the late week PoPs farther north accordingly. Regardless
of how this brief event plays out, subtropical ridging looks to
take hold quickly as July begins.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  71  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
Waco                87  71  88  69  89 /  40  30  30  20  20
Paris               87  65  87  67  88 /   5   5  10   5   5
Denton              88  68  88  68  89 /   5  10  10  10  10
McKinney            87  67  88  68  89 /   5   5  10  10  10
Dallas              89  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
Terrell             89  68  89  69  90 /  10   5  10  10  10
Corsicana           86  70  88  71  89 /  30  10  20  10  10
Temple              84  70  86  69  87 /  40  40  30  20  30
Mineral Wells       87  68  86  68  88 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/05