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000
FXUS64 KFWD 041848
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE
SUBSEQUENT DURATION AND AMOUNTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

AT 18Z...THE FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER...MOVING
STEADILY SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE DFW AREA AROUND 6 PM/00Z. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT THAT TIME (LIKELY LIGHTER THAN IT IS NOW)
AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS POSSIBLE. PLACED -FZRA IN THE
TAF AFTER 00Z AS A RESULT.

AS THE COLD AIR GETS DEEPER...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET. LIGHT SLEET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 4 TO
5 HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF HIGHER INTENSITY THUNDERSLEET MIXED IN.
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSLEET IN THE DFW AREA APPEARS TO
BE RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO PLACED THUNDERSLEET IN THE FORECAST FROM 05-07Z.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

WHENEVER THUNDERSLEET OCCURS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE BULK
OF THE SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SLEET
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DFW AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY LIKELY
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSLEET THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY. COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO GET DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW IN THE 2-3 AM TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY THAT TIME AS WELL. WENT AHEAD
WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 2 AM IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
NOON ON THURSDAY. ANY SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE ROAD OR RUNWAYS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND GRADUALLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL OF THE REGION IS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING BUT WE EXPECT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE FREEZING LINE
WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THE
FREEZING LINE MAY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

OVERALL...THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT
SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE:

1) THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES SOUTHEAST INCLUDING BELL COUNTY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THIS AREA DUE TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES WILL BEGIN AT
MIDNIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE UP TO 1/4 INCH AND/OR 1/2 INCH
SLEET.

2) THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED AN AXIS OF HIGHER SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THIS AXIS
HAS NOW BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW
TO PARIS. THE REASON FOR THIS SHIFT WAS DUE TO GUIDANCE FROM
INCOMING HI-RES MODELS THAT SHOWS CONVECTIVE FEATURES AFFECTING
MAINLY THIS AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. THUNDERSLEET WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND WILL SHOW AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SLEET...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS AREA. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND ARE TECHNICALLY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA BUT WE WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

3) NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING AND IMPACTS
COULD BE FAIRLY MINOR AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING AS AT LEAST THE TX TECH WRF SUGGESTS SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY AFFECT THIS AREA RESULTING IN HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.

IN SUMMARY...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT MOST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RD WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY SLEET BUT SOME
ICE AND SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IT LOOKS
LIKE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WINTER WEATHER TYPE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA
MOVING EAST. THE 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WICHITA FALLS TO CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXTENDING NEAR A PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO
COMANCHE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH PALESTINE TO
KILLEEN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A BIGGER DROP
A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE NEAR A
GAINESVILLE TO GRAHAM LINE BY MIDDAY AND EXTEND FROM NEAR PARIS TO
CLEBURNE AND BROWNWOOD BY SUNSET. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SPREADING TOWARD A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY
SUNSET. THERE WILL STRONG BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO
CANTON LINE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WARNING AREA MAY ALSO REACH CRITERIA. HAVE LEFT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
IS... INCLUDING THE WACO TEMPLE-KILLEEN AND PALESTINE AREAS WHERE
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BE DRY BUT COLD THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN START TO MODERATE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  26  37  24  45  28 / 100  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              30  35  24  46  27 / 100  20   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             25  38  22  43  23 / 100  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            24  37  22  44  27 / 100  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          25  38  22  42  26 / 100  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            26  37  25  45  28 / 100  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           28  37  22  44  26 / 100  20   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         31  35  25  43  27 / 100  20   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            30  37  24  44  27 / 100  30   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     24  38  22  46  25 / 100  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-
103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ093>095-103>107-117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ135-146-156>159.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115-
116-129.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115.


&&

$$

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