Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 211152
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH THE BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING
SEWD INTO THE WRN HALF OF TN. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY MORE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD...THEREBY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB
MAINLY INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S...OR FAIRLY CLOSE TO MON`S HIGH TEMPS.
THERE ARE A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING SEWD...OR EMBEDDED WITHIN
A NWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ITSELF. THESE CLOUDS THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR AOB H5 BEGINS TO STREAM SEWD INTO THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE
VALLEY FOG NEAR/OVER MAJOR WATER BODIES HAS ALSO AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS EARLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS THICK
AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY MORNING. IN ANY CASE...ANY LINGERING FOG ISSUES
IN THESE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH/LIFT WITHIN A FEW HRS
AFTER DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ABOVE H85.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS STILL XPCTED TO BECOME
ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. THIS SFC HIGH LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY/INTO WED...BEFORE WEAKENING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL WX CONDS INTO FRI...BEFORE A MODEST
WARMING TREND PERHAPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEYING ON IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS AN EMBEDDED
SHRTWV/TROUGH AXIS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES DIVING SEWD THU AND FRI.
THE MODEL SUITES ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THIS TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TO THE SE. IN ANY
CASE...THIS MAY AT LEAST BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA THU
INTO FRI...BEFORE A BROADER UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH PREDOM MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND OVERALL
TEMPS TRENDING NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH ANY
VSBY REDUCTIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL EXPECTED TO BE VERY BRIEF BTWN
21/12-13Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU TO DISPERSE BY MID-MORNING WITH
FEW CU ARND 3500 FT THIS AFTN. CONDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON MAGNITUDE OF NOCTURNAL WINDS HAVE NOT FORMALLY
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS
FROM THE NNW AFTER 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING/VEERING TO NNE AROUND DUSK.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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