Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 030514
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1114 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 354 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE S CALIFORNIA COASTLINE SLOWLY TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MIDST OF ITS TRANSITIONING
MOVEMENT AND ORIENTATION, SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN INDUCED ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. WITH A JET STREAK ORIENTED N-S FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN W-E ORIENTATION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE DELMARVA COAST.

THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH IS BEING CLOSELY WATCHED AS IT
INDUCES STRONG WAA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN STRONG
AND VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN, A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
LOOKS TO DROP SE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY AS THE TROUGH
GAINS MOMENTUM AND MERGES WITH A POLAR JET MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF EXACT WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS
RIGHT NOW AND CHANGES TO THE PRECIP TYPE/ACCUMULATION TIMING IS
LIKELY IN THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 952 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SHRA...TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW/MID 40S. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO LIGHT SE WINDS. THOUGHT ABOUT
LOWERING POPS FOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT NEW NAM
DATA SHOWS THAT MORE SHRA WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ARND 09Z AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT LIKELY POPS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD
ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE TAF SITES ATTM.
HOWEVER AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TONIGHT EXPECT MORE SCT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A STRONG CDFNT EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA. OTHERWISE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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