Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 260841
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
341 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Another quiet and mild night ongoing across the cntrl TN Valley for
this early Fri morning. High pressure at the sfc and aloft pretty
much remains layered from the mid Atlantic Basin swwd into the Lower
MS Valley region. Some mid/high clouds are trying to spill their way
nwd into the extreme wrn half of the area, as both moisture and weak
embedded upper waves work their way around the wrn fringe of the
upper ridge pattern. Additional cloud cover and showers/tstms are
also converging along a weak sfc boundary over the Midwest states.
Latest short term models are not that aggressive with the front
making it that much further to the se before stalling well nnw of
the local area later this morning. However, the flow regime just to
the w has definitely increased over the last 24 hrs, with the latest
model suites suggesting that at least some of this energy will
spread ewd into the area later today. This should translate into
perhaps sct showers/tstms developing by the onset of the afternoon
period, aided by abundant latent heating. Even with a little bit of
an increase in cloud cover/rain, afternoon highs may still be able
to reach the mid 90s over the cntrl/wrn zones, before some of the
heavier cloudiness develops. This looks to again result in heat
indices around 100-105F developing this afternoon, mainly over nw
AL. As was the case Thu, the limited duration/sparse coverage of
near 105F temps does not warrant an advisory at this point.

A little bit more of a stagnant pattern looks to prevail into the
weekend period, with both the sfc and upper ridges remaining fairly
stationary over the mid Atlantic Basin. The flow pattern around the
upper ridge axis also looks to weaken quite a bit this weekend, with
at best iso mainly afternoon showers/tstms xpcted over much of the
region, in the absence of a better lifting mech. Unseasonably hot
and humid wx conditions will also continue this weekend, with high
temps again reaching the mid 90s in some areas and heat indices
around 100-105F developing during max heating, especially on Sat. By
Sun, heat index values may not be quite as robust, as the upper
ridge axis to the e begins to weaken some. This general trend will
continue into the new work week, as a more open nw flow regime forms
over the srn states.

The latter half of the forecast is still somewhat dependent on the
development/track of a tropical wave/system moving into the sern
Gulf out of the Caribbean waters. The global model spreads/biases
continue to be highly variable, with the latest runs trending a bit
weaker with the system as it tracks over the FL panhandle and into
the srn Atlantic around the first of next week. Nevertheless, if this
scenario is anywhere close, slightly cooler and drier air could
certainly filter swd into much of the region by the second half of
next week.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1158 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: Light winds and a few clouds overnight will give way
to BKN VFR cigs and scattered thunderstorms by Friday afternoon.
Will handle the thunderstorms with a PROB30 at this time. Winds will
remain light and conditions will remain VFR outside of any
thunderstorms on Friday and into Friday evening.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    94  75  95  72 /  40  20  20  10
Shoals        94  74  95  72 /  40  20  20  10
Vinemont      92  71  92  70 /  40  20  20  10
Fayetteville  91  71  92  70 /  40  20  20  10
Albertville   93  72  92  70 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Payne    91  70  92  69 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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