Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 280457
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1057 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 827 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The local area has stayed dry this evening as the wave that gave us
the rain this morning continues to move southeast. The next wave to
watch is starting to develop showers over Arkansas which will expand
in coverage and continue to track east overnight. There`s really
just a veil of cirrus over the region but guidance indicates a lower
cloud deck will move in from the west-southwest by midnight. Temps
will drop in the next few hours and then hold somewhat steady
overnight. Lows are still expected to get into the upper 40s/lower
50s.

Made some edits to the POPs overnight since there is little forcing
for anything to form before midnight and hires guidance is agreeing.
Latest guidance does have the showers making it to NW AL by and maybe
just before 12z so have brought the pops back in by then. For now,
left the thunder mention for 12z and later due to the uncertainty in
the timing but this may need to be updated to an earlier time.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into tomorrow; the
question is whether any of these storms can become severe. The low-
level and deep-layer wind shear are both strong. Instability is there
too; the question in our mind is whether the low-to-mid level
capping develops as hinted by the operational models. Elevated storms
capable of producing large hail look more likely, but it will take
more effort to produce any surface-based storms (though it is not out
of the question). PoPs for Tuesday will stay in the 50-60% range
given the relatively weak forcing. High temperatures in the warm
sector will easily be 10-15 degrees warmer than today and could
potentially flirt with records for the date.

Wednesday continues to be the main focus, as the parent long wave
troughs phase over the Plains and drive a strong cold front eastward,
likely creating a squall line/QLCS. There is no doubt that the
forcing Wednesday is much better and instability more pronounced.
However, the most unstable lapse rates (late in the day) and
strongest shear (earlier in the day) are displaced from one another.
A few tornadoes are possible, particularly if there are line breaks,
or if storms develop earlier when they can take advantage of more
favorable shear. However, wind damage looks like the more significant
threat with the expected timing (late morning thru afternoon).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

As the surface front continues southeastward into the Florida
panhandle Wednesday night, a decent pressure gradient will still be
in place, as cold air advection continues behind the front. This
will keep northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph with higher gusts to
between 20 and 25 mph above 1000 feet. These winds will slowly
diminish to between 5 and 10 mph with some higher gusts above 1000
feet after midnight. Since this air mass is Pacific in origin, very
cold air will not be advected in despite the strong northwesterly
winds. Also, mixing will likely help to temper low temperatures as
well, low temperatures will still drop into the upper 30s to around
40 degrees. It will be cooler on Thursday, as highs in the mid to
upper 50s are expected despite abundant sunshine. Higher elevations
above 1000 feet will be even cooler with highs only topping out in
the lower 50s.

Another weak and dry front is forecast by models to push southeast
through northern Alabama Thursday evening. There should be very
little cloud cover associated with this front. Behind the front on
Friday, even colder air into the Tennessee Valley. Lows in the lower
to mid 30s look reasonable. As colder air moves into the region,
highs on Friday will likely be cooler than guidance. Forecasted
highs in the lower 40s in Southern Middle Tennessee to the lower 50s
south of the Tennessee River. This may be generous given 925
temperatures. However, enough uncertainty exists with these
temperatures to not go much lower than stated temperatures.

A warmup looks to be in store for the weekend, as southerly to
southwesterly low level flow develops as the surface high pushes off
the Georgia coast. Highs should climb into the lower to mid 60s
again by Sunday. Models hint at weak forcing and maybe deep enough
moisture for showers to developing by Sunday night. Included isolated
to scattered showers during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tricky TAF forecast with the height of the CIGS being the most
uncertain part of the forecast. Some guidance is showing CIGS may
stay below 1000ft for the majority of the TAF period. Thinking it
will be that or below at least until Tue afternoon where a little
mixing could raise them a bit. The question becomes if the clouds
move back in Tue night so for now will stick with a BKN010/BKN015 at
KMSL/KHSV. CIGS tonight may drop slightly below the 700ft that is
forecast but only briefly.

Have added the mention of thunder in for Tue morning into Tue
afternoon. The timing of the showers/thunderstorms may need to be
adjusted +/- an hour.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...BCC
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...LN


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at weather.gov/huntsville.



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