Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 302303 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
603 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
For 00Z TAFs.
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
(Issued 225 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016)
Even with scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, temps were still able
to climb into the upper 80s as of 19z. HSV already reached 93 earlier
today and probably won`t get much warmer than that. A few showers and
a thunderstorm or two are ongoing and this convective activity will
diminish with daytime heating providing dry conditions for any
outdoor activities this evening/tonight. Temps will slowly fall to a
seasonable overnight low into the mid 60s with mostly clear/partly
Tuesday will be much like today. In addition to daytime heating, a
weak disturbance moving through with isentropic lift could be enough
to offset the weak high pressure that will be in place. The highest
chances for convection would be in NW AL..closer to the shortwave.
Otherwise, high temps will reach 90 degrees again. With the
atmosphere drying out...will keep a dry forecast Tue night with lows
in the middle 60s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday Night)...
Tuesday night starts out with an upper low over North Dakota with a
cold front sweeping south through the Midwest. GFS/NAM and some HiRes
guidance is showing the possibility of showers/thunderstorms forming
off outflows from a decaying MCS making it at least to the western
half of the area through 06z Wed. Soundings are still indicating a
pretty dry atmosphere especially with a generally northern flow
across the area. Will keep a silent 10 pop for now. However...have
seen already this season some of these MCS` surprise us and make it
across the area so this will need to be monitored.
Winds start to shift east and then southerly by Wed afternoon and
this could help usher in some of the remnant moisture from what is
left of TD Bonnie. A weak convergence boundary coupled with the
terrain over the northeast portions of the area warrants sct
showers/thunderstorms Wed afternoon but will continue isolated
elsewhere. Temps on Wednesday will still remain warm with highs
around 90 degrees.
The upper low over the upper midwest continues to wrap up and slowly
shift to the northeast Wed night. The previously mentioned cold
front will generally wash out/weaken as it approaches the local
area. Whatever is left of that front will move through by Thu
morning with a weak wind shift to the NW setting up better
convergence over the area. With S-SW flow at the mid levels,
moisture will be able to stream north and with just enough lift and
instability, sct showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Temps
will be slightly cooler Thursday with highs in the mid 80s thanks
to additional cloud cover with lows still mild in the upper 60s.
Synoptically, the pattern is quite muddled after that. An upper low
will become cut off over Texas on Friday and the remnants of the
above mentioned front will be lingering with waves of low pressure
riding along it as the upper low kicks out shortwaves. Essentially
this will keep the chance for showers/thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend. A deeper upper trough then dives south on
Saturday and will sweep out the moisture by Sunday night. The 30/12z
GFS is wetter and deeper with the trough for the weekend than the
30/00z ECMWF but the 30/12z is now better in line with the wetter
This upper trough will help cool the temps with highs Fri-Mon in the
lower to mid 80s and lows cooling into the lower 60s by Sunday
For 00Z TAFs:
VFR conditions are expected to be predominant through the TAF period.
Forcing/convection with an approaching upper level disturbance is
expected to weaken as it moves towards the AL/MS state line later
tomorrow afternoon. This could produce isolated to widely scattered
-TSRA in northwest AL around 31/00Z, but left out for now at KMSL due
to uncertainty (affecting the site directly). If this activity
occurs at KMSL, it could drop CIGS/VSBYS into the MVFR/IFR categories
after 22Z at KMSL.
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