Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 192323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
623 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High pressure will continue to shift eastward slightly toward
western Virginia overnight. Calm or very light winds are expected
again tonight. Models bring in lower dewpoints overnight east of
I-65. This actually looks reasonable based on the flow around the
high from northern Georgia/South Carolina. This may keep dense fog at
bay towards daybreak on Friday, but could see some patchy fog in
areas near bodies of water and in protected valley locations. Lows in
the 41 to 46 degree range is expected in most locations. However,
east of I-65, could see some lows between 38 and 42 degrees.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Models continue to show a strong low level trough axis and associated
front southeast from Canada into the Upper Midwest Friday night into
Saturday. The surface high will remain in control of sensible weather
across the area during that timeframe. Warmer 925 mb temperatures and
abundant sunshine should allow highs to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Upper level ridging is slow to degrade, but finally pushes
off the Atlantic coast on Saturday night. Southerly flow really picks
up during this period, keeping warmer temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s through then.

Thicker and more expansive cloud cover and higher chances of rain and
isolated thunderstorms should push into the area on Sunday into
Sunday night, based on newest guidance. ECMWF is more in line with
GFS concerning a more phased system compared to previous runs (thus
higher rain chances earlier than previous forecast).

By Monday, could see more thunderstorm activity with dewpoints
pooling above the approaching front and stronger forcing pushing into
the area. Depending on which model you believe, thunderstorms could
become strong or severe. Given uncertainty with models handling the
low level jet, just touting strong storm activity for now. This
period will need to be monitored for the possibility of severe storms
on Monday, if the 50-60 knot 850 jet forecast by ECMWF turns out to
be right.

Otherwise, clearing and much cooler towards the middle of next week,
as very cold air moves in behind the departing front. Highs could
only reach the mid 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday. This may be


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions, mostly clear skies and winds under 5kts will prevail
through the TAF period. Patchy fog is possible early in the morning
but confidence is not high that it will lower visibilities at the TAF





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