Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Quiet weather is expected through the period with neutral upper-
level flow and high pressure building across the area at this
surface. One fly in the ointment is the potential for fog across
the area later tonight. Persistent low clouds have been across
much of the forecast area today, clouds that were not well
forecast by any of the guidance. This has minimized diurnal mixing
across the area, and surface dew points are still quite high.
Once the low clouds fade (they have been trending more cellular
with time), the mostly clear skies and light winds anticipated may
be conducive to fog development. Current model guidance is not
too excited about fog tonight, but they weren`t excited about the
low clouds either, leading to low confidence in their output. This
fog threat will need to be monitored closely by the evening


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Forecast attention turns to a vigorous upper-level wave, currently
tracking across Alberta and Saskatchewan. This wave will push a
cold front through the forecast area on Thursday. Southerly low-
level flow ahead of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday night
will bring very warm and humid conditions back into the area.
Associated thunderstorm chances will accompany the
approach/passage of the front Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday/behind the front, humidity levels drop and
temperatures return to normal levels or below. High pressure will
be in control of the local weather for much of the remaining
forecast period, accompanied by dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A sizable patch of MVFR CIGs persists across much of central
Illinois, impacting most of the local TAF sites. These low clouds
are not handled well by the model guidance, but recent satellite
imagery suggests they are beginning to mix out. Once these CIGS
dissipate, expect VFR condtions for the remainder of the period.




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