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000
FXUS63 KIWX 142011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO SW LOWER MICH WAS RACING
EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WAS
SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACARS/ACFT SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING WPC MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM WERE TOO MOIST IN THE
LOWER TO MID LAYERS...AND WERE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD MOVED INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN AN
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WHERE MOISTURE WAS BETTER. HOWEVER...ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY WAS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AS OF MID AFTERNOON. LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER EARLY TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE EXCEPT NORTHEAST AREAS. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. FAVORED THE
EC/MAV GIVEN THE NAM/MET COLD BIAS IN RECENT RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD SE INTO THE UPR GRTLKS SAT NGT BEHIND A
SHRTWV ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY. ANOTHER SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS SWRN CANADA TODAY WILL DIVE SE MERGING OVER THE LWR MS
VALLEY WITH A SRN STREAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
H850 CONVERGENCE/FGEN MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NWRN
PORTION OF CWA SAT NGT AS NRN STREAM FRONT ENCOUNTERS CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO LITTLE
OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. AIRMASS MOVG INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND LINGERING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH TEMPS
10-20F BLO NORMAL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT STRONG LOW OVER THE NE
PAC TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND THEN
MOVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON TUE AND THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS WED.
12Z GEM HAS COME NW WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW...CLOSER TO ECMWF/GFS...
SUGGESTING OUR CWA WILL GET INTO THE LOW`S WARM SECTOR. WAA PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL NORTH OF OUR CWA ON TUE WITH A
CHC OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TUE NGT/WED AS THE TRAILING CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED THU AS POST FRONTAL THERMAL TROF
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH NW FLOW ACROSS
THE LAKE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WARMER TEMPS AND DRY WX EXPECTED FRI AS SW
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING SFC HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

KEPT A WIND SHEAR REMARK EARLY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND AXIS OF
55 TO 60 KNOTS. A PILOT REPORT ALSO INDICATED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER/JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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