Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281817
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
217 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Showers and and an isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and overnight, especially west of highway 31. Lows
tonight will range from the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Primary sw trough of note this aftn ovr wrn MN w/conv remnant
waves noted in vapor ovr ne MO and sw WI. Old synoptic fntl zone
conts stalled out fm srn IN nwwd into cntrl IL w/new isold convn
contg fm cntrl through srn WI. Otrws benign pattn remains intact
w/ltl appreciable focus for convn this aftn outside lk breeze
ovr nw IN/sw MI.

Slwr ewd ejection and shearing out of lead WI wave lends ltl
confidence in prior fcst overnight esp in light of tremendously
weak flw environment in place. Hwvr given proximity of old
synoptic fntl zone and apch of sewd advg sw trough out of MN cant
rule out addnl dvlpmnt esp invof of wk ll mass flux seen in most
highres solutions esp within the highway 30 corridor in IN this
evening.

Elongated upr trough axis will hold in place on Fri as MN sw digs
into ne IL by aftn. Old fntl zone shld buck a ltl further north into
nrn IN and w/sufficient diurnal destabilization... resulting in a
btr chc of shra/tsra in the aftn. Will reorient pops to fvr more
cntrl and north.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Lingering mid lvl trough axis through the srn lakes is apt to
fire again Sat aftn/eve and expanded prior pops a bit more esp
underneath consensus mid lvl trough axis position. Otrws
generally flat zonal flw aloft underneath east Canada troughing
will break sharply twd more upr ridging cntrd acrs the cntrl
plains erly nxt week. Thus xpc general subsidence aloft will stave
off organized precipitation until lt pd as increasingly hot/humid
and unstable airmass begins to convectively cycle within nrn
periphery of upr ridge. Where exactly this lays out and
positioning of active w-e fntl zone remains speculative per contd
disparate med range solutions. Given lack of consensus solution
see no reason to detract fm inherited 20 pops. Regardless rtn of
abv normal temps seen by mid pd and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Scattered/isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected within
the first portion of the TAF period, with the best chances at KSBN
this afternoon/evening. Still uncertain as to how far east the
showers/storms will develop overnight, but kept the going mention
of rain showers in the KFWA TAF starting around 02Z. As of 1740Z,
light rain showers were developing in Berrien/Cass MI counties,
just north of SBN. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions to prevail
through the period, with intermittent drops to MVFR in heavier
rain showers/storms. Some of the guidance suggests IFR/MVFR
visibilities at KFWA late tonight/Friday morning-but was not
confident enough to include in this TAF issuance.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MCD


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