Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 021905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015


BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER KFWA RESULTING FROM NE FLOW BRINGING
LK ERIE MARINE LAYER INTO THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER 850MB INVERSION.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KFWA INDICATING INVERSION FINALLY ERODING
AND VIS SAT BEARS TRENDS INDICATING THE SAME AS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP WHILE DIURNAL CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER KSBN AREA. EXPECT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS LT
10KTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JAL


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