Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 140745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

IMPRESSIVE DEEP CLOSED LOW INVOF KBDE WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO WRN
WI TDA WHILE LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIG MID LVL HGT FALLS SPREAD
SEWD INTO THE SRN LAKES. STILL A SUBSTANTIAL H85 THETA-E W-E
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACRS CWA BUT NOTABLE DIFFS SEEN IN 00Z RAOBS
N-S. EARLIER BKN LINE OF SHRA JUST NORTH OF A KMGC-KJYM LINE
LIKELY A GOOD HARBINGER OF MSTR DISCONTINUITY. THUS SUSPECT AS BTR
HGT FALLS ARRIVE TWD MID MORNING WEST TO EARLY AFTN EAST...BACKING
AND INTENSIFYING LL FLW SHLD YIELD A FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONV RESPONSE
AHD OF SUBTLE UPSTREAM MID LVL TROUGH SEEN IN VAPOR. WILL FOLLOW
NR TERM CONSENSUS OF HIGHRES SOLUTIONS TO AFFORD GREATER TEMPORAL
DETAIL YET CONFIDENCE LACKING ON NOTCHING LIKELY POPS IN ANY
PARTICULAR AREA. REGARDLESS SOME OBVIOUS SVR RISK FOR WIND/HAIL
EXISTS GIVEN XPCD FVRBL COMBO OF MOD CAPE/SHEAR AND IS LIKELY TO
MATERIALIZE ESP EWD OF A LOGANSPORT-STURGIS LINE BY EARLY AFTN.

OTRWS SPECTRAL CONSENSUS EWD SWING OF UPR TROUGH THROUGH LWR MI
TONIGHT LIKELY ONTRACK AND SEEN IN PRIOR TRENDS INDICATING MORE
PROGRESSION ALOFT. WILL TRANSLATE A SLGT CHC SHRA MENTION W-E ACRS
CWA THIS EVENING YET HOLD DRY AFT 06Z. TEMPS TURNING MUCH COOLER AS
EARNEST LL CAA WRAPS IN ESP AFT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IN THE COMING WEEK AS
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND LEADS TO A
BRIEF SOJOURN OF FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS. CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
WITH 850MB TEMPS TOUCHING 5C (2SD BELOW NORMAL) WILL RESIDE OVER OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A STRAY SPRINKLE TUESDAY (AND WEDNESDAY)
AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO RESIDE JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA IN THE DEFORMATION REGION OF EXITING LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
OUR CWA APPEAR AWFULLY DRY/STABLE AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST A SILENT
10 POP. WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU THOUGH...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY AT OR BELOW 70F GIVEN COOL THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT. NOTE THIS IS ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...A
SIZABLE FEAT FOR MID-JULY...AND WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW
MAXES (SEE BELOW). NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-20 MPH WILL ALSO AID THE
AUTUMN FEEL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50F...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE CAA WING BUT
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION SHOULD PUSH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 70F/LOWER 70S. SLOW
MODERATION THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
MORE SEASONABLE VALUES OF LOW 80S. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT
PRESENT...THOUGH WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT HAS BEEN CREEPING FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. SUSPECT STAUNCH THETA-E SINK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOW/DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE BUT CERTAINLY NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IF MORE FERVENT S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS LOCALLY. WILL HOLD
WITH DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IF TREND CONTINUES MAY NEED TO ADD
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

RECORD COLD HIGHS...                    CURRENT POINT FORECAST...

JULY 15TH: SBN...65 (1967)              SBN...67
           FWA...67 (1967)              FWA...69

JULY 16TH: SBN...72 (1976)              SBN...70
           FWA...71 (1918)              FWA...71

JULY 17TH: SBN...72 (2009)              SBN...74
           FWA...70 (1939)              FWA...76

RECORD LOWS...

JULY 15TH: SBN...42 (1930)              SBN...54
           FWA...50 (1987)              FWA...55

JULY 16TH: SBN...48 (1945)              SBN...52
           FWA...48 (1945)              FWA...53

JULY 17TH: SBN...46 (1896)              SBN...52
           FWA...51 (1976)              FWA...53

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THIS PD. HWVR VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW NR KBDE WILL
AMPLIFY SEWD INTO WRN WI BY LT THIS AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIG
MID LVL HGT FALLS SHLD ILLICIT A FAIR CONV RESPONSE INVOF LINGERING
H85 THETA-E GRADIENT TWD LT MORNING INTO MID AFTN AND REFINED
ASSOCIATED TEMPO MVFR TSRA POTENTIAL W/06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


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