Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281828
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
228 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.NEAR TERM / through Saturday /...
A more stable airmass is in place Today, but with diurnal heating
enough instability to produce isolated to scattered convection.
The convection will initiate on the Gulf coast sea breeze then
spread thorugh the afternoon. Convection will dissipate this
evening, with the loss of diurnal heating.

Convection will increase from North to South Saturday as a cold
front approaches from the North. This boundary will near the
Altamaha river late in the day, with the best chances for storms
this period over SE GA.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal Saturday over SE GA
due to clouds and precipitation. Readings will be near to
slightly above normal NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM / Saturday Night through Sunday Night /...
Upper trough axis moves over forecast area during this period...
while associated cold front will move slowly SE from s-ctrl GA
Saturday night to FL-GA border Sunday morning to our southern
counties late Sunday night. Numerous showers and t-storms expected
along and ahead of the front...supporting high POPs along and
ahead of boundary, with POP values quickly dropping off as one
gets well north of the front. A few storms could be strong/severe
with strong gusty winds the primary threat. High temps Sun will
be down a little...upper 80s inland... mid 80s coast.

.LONG TERM / Monday through Friday /...
Initial upper trough offshore weakens Mon-Tue while a new one
develops over Gulf Coast region through Friday. Very low POPs
Mon across se GA with POP values increasing southward across
ne FL...primarily showers with isolated t-storms. The higher POP
values gradually spread northward each day as upper flow backs to
a more southwesterly direction as Gulf Coast region upper trough
becomes established. High temps are expected to be fairly steady
in the mid-upr 80s each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this 18z TAF period.
Isolated to scattered storms are anticipated this afternoon into
early evening, which could produce brief restrictions. Convection
will increase from the North on Saturday ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridge will move to the Southeast through Saturday,
as a cold front approaches from the North. This front will move
South across area waters Saturday night through Sunday. The
boundary will be South of the region Monday into Tuesday with high
pressure to the North, then work back to the North toward mid
week.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  87  72  88 /  20  80  40  20
SSI  77  90  77  85 /  10  80  60  30
JAX  74  92  76  86 /  10  70  70  70
SGJ  77  95  76  86 /  20  30  60  80
GNV  74  92  75  87 /  10  30  60  80
OCF  74  90  75  87 /  10  20  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Struble/McGinnis



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