Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
LOW PRESSURE ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL HEAVY
AT TIMES WILL OVERSPREAD SE GA WITH ELEVATED THUNDER EXPECTED AS
WELL. DETAILS OF FLOODING ISSUES IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. FLOOD
WATCH APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE FOR MARION, PUTNAM,
FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER NE FL WILL SLOWLY EJECT INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
THIS WILL SIGNAL AN END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT RAINFALL
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFIES...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25G35 MPH TOWARDS MORNING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES...LIKELY TO FALL JUST SHORT OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PUSH
DOWN A FEW TREES SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE SATURATED. TEMPS WILL FALL
STEADILY THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AS LOW PULLS
AWAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT COMES TO AN END AND ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT NEAR
60 DEGREES IN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM /THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A COOL DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE AT OUR
NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN INCREASES IN INTENSITY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WITH
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE NE FL COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST SURGE CLOSE TO
25-30 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A SLOW DECREASING TREND INTO WED
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. WILL SEE A
LULL IN CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LET SCA REMAIN IN
PLACE SINCE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW RISK IN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO PRONGED
APPROACH AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ISOLATED HIGHER 6 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL AS LOW TRACKS ACRS THE REGION AND TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY PUSH ISOLD HIGHER TOTALS CLOSE TO 8 INCHES SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES. ACROSS SE GA...WIDESPREAD 3-5
INCH TOTALS FROM THE PAST 2-3 DAYS HAS SATURATED THE SOILS AND EVENT
TONIGHT NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS BUT STILL A SOLID
1-2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ISSUES. STILL
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS AREAS ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. RIVER/STREAMS/CREEKS ALL LOOK TO PUSH TO NEAR
BANKFULL AND/OR ACTION STAGES DURING AND/OR FOLLOWING THE EVENT.
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF RAINFALL MAY PUSH SYSTEMS LIKE BLACK CREEK
OR ST. MARYS INTO FLOOD IF MAX RAINFALL LANDS IN THEIR BASIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  59  39  59 / 100  90  10   0
SSI  53  59  43  61 / 100  80  10   0
JAX  52  61  39  62 / 100  80   0   0
SGJ  54  60  44  64 / 100  90   0   0
GNV  52  61  39  64 / 100  60   0   0
OCF  54  62  39  66 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/HESS/WALSH






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