Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221344
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...COOLER AND BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST TODAY...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COOLER NORTH FLOW
EXISTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW SURGE OF EVEN COOLER AIR
JUST REACHING THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 15-20G25-30 MPH AND
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR STILL NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS INLD NE FL ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS NORTHEAST SURGE WILL NOT REACH UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS SURGE TO TRIGGER
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EXPECT RAIN FREE CONDS THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE AND EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHEAST WINDS. DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND WILL MAKE FOR RATHER
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONDS FOR LATE MAY. NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL
FADE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST WITH
5-10 MPH WINDS FURTHER INLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER
INLAND SE GA AND 60S ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING AT COASTAL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY REPORTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SC/GA COASTAL WATERS SHOW
A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE MOVING DOWN THE COAST WHERE BUOY 41004
GUSTED TO 27 KNOTS AND EXPECT AT LEAST A SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS TO NORTHEAST 15-20G25-30KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR NOW AFTER COLLAB WITH
WFO CHS WILL KEEP THIS EVENT WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC) HEADLINES AS IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF GUSTY EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
VERSUS THE HOT WESTERLIES FROM YDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT NOW WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS
STILL SHOW DECENT ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AND ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON GUIDANCE TO RAISE FLAGS IF NEEDED.


RIP CURRENTS: RISK INCREASING TO MODERATE WITH NORTHEAST SURGE
TODAY...THEN MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE
BREEZY/WINDY ONSHORE FLOW. BREAKERS BUILDING TO 3 FT TODAY THEN
INTO THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  78  69  80  70 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  85  66  83  69 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  83  72  82  73 /   0  10  20  30
GNV  90  67  86  66 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  91  69  88  68 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER


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