Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 081550
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1050 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...BREEZY TO WINDY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

.UPDATE...THE SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INDICATED WITH
ATLANTA AT .35"...JACKSONVILLE AT .26" AND CHARLESTON AT .24". AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS FRONT
PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES...A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THOUGH
THE MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
ALOFT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (POPS AROUND 30%). RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
WITH VIRGA ANTICIPATED. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE WINDS WILL
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT AND WILL BE HELPED BY MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER 60S SE GA AND MIDDLE 60S NE FL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING BKN-OVC TONIGHT...
BUT CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4-5 KFT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN ELEVATED AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. MAY PUT VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE FOR KSSI WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 30%-40%.


&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT AT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TODAY AND IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WILL POST GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DEPARTING STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST DESPITE THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND EXPECT
BREAKERS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DECREASING
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH LOW TO
MODERATE RISK ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  34  49  29 /  30  20   0   0
SSI  59  39  51  33 /  20  40   0   0
JAX  65  38  55  31 /  20  30   0   0
SGJ  64  41  55  35 /  10  30   0   0
GNV  64  38  56  31 /  10  20   0   0
OCF  65  40  56  34 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CORDERO/NELSON/COMBS



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