Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 071427
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
REGION IS STILL UNDER WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND
NORTHERN GOMEX. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO
WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WILL ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND TODAY. THIS IN
ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AS NOTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
SOUNDINGS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS IN THE 1.70-1.90 INCH RANGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START TO CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE ACTIVE AS IT MOVES
INLAND THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE GULF COAST AND ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD MEET BETWEEN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND
U.S. 301 CORRIDORS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL END UP IN
THE 50-60% RANGE AND DUE TO THE SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT TODAY EXPECT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2-3 INCHES IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS STILL COOL ALOFT FOR EARLY JULY
AROUND -8C AND THIS WILL STILL PROMOTE INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN MERGING
CELLS AND ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
STILL COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO PROMOTE SOME HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF IT WILL BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE NEAR CLIMO 30-50% STORM COVERAGE EXCEPT FOR
FAR INLAND SE GA WHERE A SMALLER POCKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRIER
AIRMASS MAY REDUCE STORM COVERAGE TO 20-30%. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST. THIS EVENING...HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST DRIFT OF THE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER SUNSET...THEN EVENT ALL WRAPPED UP BY
MIDNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND EXPECT
NEAR CLIMO LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S COAST.
PATCHY FOG IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING ON SCTD STORM ACTIVITY AND TAF
SET ALREADY LOCKED INTO TEMPO GROUPS...GENERALLY IN THE 18Z-22Z
TIME FRAME...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS LATER
DAY WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. SEAS STILL GENERALLY
IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. ANY GUSTY STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOCAL ONSHORE
SEA BREEZES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  30
SSI  86  77  86  75 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  90  73  92  74 /  40  10  30  20
SGJ  88  75  88  74 /  30  10  30  10
GNV  91  71  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
OCF  91  72  92  73 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALSH



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