Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
253 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Upper low now near Memphis will
move ese into western Ga by late tonight while a surface low over
north Al moves into SC by early Monday morning. A light sw flow
over ne Fl/se Ga today will allow the east coast seabreeze to move
inland this afternoon to near the Highway 301 corridor by early
evening. Increasing low level moisture and instability(Capes 1000+
J/kg) will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
near the seabreeze front this afternoon and early evening. Mid
levels will be dry as a dry slot moves across the area between
upper low to the nw and an upper trough over s Fl. This will keep
coverage mostly scattered but may contribute to strong gusty winds
in the stronger cells that do form. Vertical shear looks weak with
the SPC Day 1 Covective outlook marginal. A cold front will move
across the area tonight accompanied by weakening convection over
se Ga/ne Fl as instability wanes and strongest dynamics stay to
the north. This will continue the chance for showers overnight
with isolated thunder possible through the evening hours. Smoke
from the Okefenokee wildfire will move ne towards coastal Ga today
due to sw winds.

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/...
The upper level low will be transiting across Georgia on Monday with
the weakening surface front dropping south of of the region with
only isolated showers along it. A synoptic westerly flow of 10 to 15
knots and low Relative Humidity levels may enhance smoke production
from the West Mims fire...and possibly other fires...and likely
advect that smoke toward the coast and the Jacksonville Metro area.

On Monday night the upper low moves to the South Carolina coast and
the upper trough begins to lift out. Winds will continue  out of the
fire area likely continuing to advect smoke toward the east coast.

Weak high pressure will build into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday
with shifting winds.

Temperatures through the period will be near to slightly above
normal with little chance of rain through Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...
The next frontal system approaches the area Thursday and Thursday
night but falls apart as it moves up against the ridge along the
east coast. Beyond that the high from the Atlantic builds back over
the region, both surface and aloft, with temperatures generally
above normal and precipitation chances very low through the period.


.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions to prevail today. Ceilings will
be mostly in 3 to 6 kft range. Light sw winds will shift and increase
from the se this afternoon as the east coast seabreeze moves inland.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches from the


.MARINE...A cold will push across the waters tonight and Monday
morning bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. South to
southeast winds today will shift to the nw by early Monday morning
with the frontal passage. SCEC headlines may be needed as winds
and seas increase tonight. Winds and seas will decrease below
headline criteria by midweek.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for ne Fl today due to a
lingering swell with a low risk for se Ga. Low risk on Monday as
winds become offshore.


A weakening cold front is forecast to cross the region tonight
into Monday. Precipitation coverage along the front is expected to
be isolated to scattered, however potential for lightning strikes
will exist. High dispersions will be possible over inland
Southeast Georgia Sunday in the southerly flow ahead of the front.

With a westerly flow and low afternoon relative humidity values
smoke from the West Mims Fire is expected to be advected toward
the east coast and the Jacksonville Metro area on Monday and
Monday night.

Much of next week is expected to be hot and dry, with the next
significant chance for rain possible late next weekend.

AMG  86  60  75  58 /  30  50  20  10
SSI  79  67  75  62 /  20  50  40  10
JAX  86  65  79  59 /  50  40  30   0
SGJ  81  65  79  60 /  30  30  30   0
GNV  86  62  78  55 /  40  20  20   0
OCF  86  64  78  57 /  40  10  20   0




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