Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 280906 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
506 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through tonight/...

A deep layer ridge will be across central Fl and then move
offshore tonight. This will bring hot and dry conditions to the
area with a light southwest flow. Temps reaching the mid 90s most
areas away from the coast. Even coastal areas will reach near 90
before the afternoon seabreeze moves in. The flow off the Gulf of
Mexico brings in elevated dew points to the area which combined
with the hot afternoon temps produces heat indices close to 100
degrees across inland Ne Fl and near 103 degrees across inland Se
Ga especially near the Okefenokee Swamp. The flow off the gulf
also brings in areas of late night and early morning low clouds
and fog across inland Ne Fl.

Memorial Day...another hot and humid day with temps pushing
through the mid 90s with heat indices likely over 100 in a few
areas. Slightly lower temps along the coast due to east coast sea
breeze, which will not push very far inland due to prevailing
west-southwest flow. Will begin to see the mid level ridge push
southeast allowing for some shortwave energy to push across our
north zones and support a low risk of showers and storms in the
afternoon through the late evening. Could be an isolated strong
storm given model sounding showing potential 2500-3500 J/kg and
bulk shear of 25-35 kt. Any showers and storms should fade after
midnight. Some potential for patchy fog over the inland northeast
FL zones again.

Tuesday...slightly better chances of showers and storms expected
as ridging becomes less of impactful on conditions aloft. In
fact...both the NAM and GFS show mid level energy rounding the
western periphery of the ridge and PWATS remain adequate of isold
to scattered afternoon and evening convection. Weak frontal
boundary may sag southward toward south GA. It is noteworthy that
GFS and NAM show convective feedback over southeast GA Tuesday
evening...suggesting strong convection is a possibility. SPC
outlook mentions a marginal risk of severe storms for part of
southeast GA. Max temps still able to push into the lower to mid
90s during the aftn.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...

Weak/diffuse frontal boundary expected to be near south GA Wed and
Thu then possibly lift back north Thu-Fri. Both the GFS and ECMWF
show enough moisture combined with sea breezes to support mainly
aftn/evening scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms
each day. Temps will tend to lower each day given increased clouds
and precip. With sfc ridge building back northward Friday and
Saturday convection will tend to push further inland from the east
coast. Cannot rule out isolated severe, mainly pulse storms each
day...especially Wed when area will be affected by weak frontal
zone over south GA.



Areas of low clouds and fog will continue to spread in from the
Gulf early this morning. Have all of the Ne Fl terminals at
least IFR til 14Z. The low clouds and fog will lift by
around 14Z.



Surface ridge south of the area will produce a light sw flow the
next few days. Afternoon seabreezes will shift the winds to the se
near shore. Slightly stronger south to southwest nocturnal winds
may occur over the waters but conditions expected to remain just
below headline criteria. A frontal boundary will weaken and wash
out across the waters towards mid week which may increase the
shower/thunderstorm activity. Winds will be variable with
afternoon and evening seabreezes near the coast.

Rip Currents: While there will be afternoon seabreezes at
the appears swells will be low (less than 1 foot) so
have opted to go with a low risk through Monday.


Other than a few areas of high dispersion today and Memorial day,
no red flag concerns. We do expect increased chances of
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours starting Monday in
southeast GA, then elsewhere from Tuesday onward.


AMG  93  71  94  71 /  10   0  20  20
SSI  90  74  91  75 /  10   0  10  20
JAX  94  70  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  91  73  93  74 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  93  70  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  92  70  93  69 /   0   0   0  10




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