Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 270837
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAJORITY OF OUR AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER STILL COVERED WITH CLOUDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE LATE
AFTN. NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 15 MPH AT THE BEACHES OF NE FL.
CONVERGENT RAIN BANDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN DROPPING SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS NOW CROSSING FLAGLER INTO SERN MARION COUNTY.
HI-RES MODELS ARE ON TRACK AND TEND TO KEEP THE SHOWERS SE OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE GA COAST. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ALONG THE COAST TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER NEAR THE
COAST AND THE NAM/SREF HINT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP A SILENT 10% IN THESE LOCATIONS
BUT IN GENERAL...TODAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO MID 80S AT THE BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER GA. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWER 60S OVER INLD AREAS OF SE GA AND
MIDDLE 60S WEST OF JAX ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FL WILL
ACTUALLY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING
OF AUGUST 28TH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH
SEABREEZES CONVERGING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. CONTINUED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION AGAIN BUT MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND ALONG WITH SEABREEZE MERGER COULD
HELP PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS THERE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND
AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT THE COAST BEFORE THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MEAN LAYER RIDGE GETS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY MOVES SE. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
SURGES BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED STORMS DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZES. BEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90
AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS RANGING 10-20 KTS AT THE
BUOYS. WHILE SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...EXPECT 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS TO CONTINUE. THUS HAVE CHANGED THE SCA OVER OFFSHORE LEGS
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND EXTENDED THE ADV INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  63  95  67 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  87  72  88  75 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  89  66  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  87  72  88  74 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  67  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  92  69  94  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON/











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