Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 191936
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS NE FL/SE GA AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WHILE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND LIFT/MOISTURE PUSHING IMPULSES OF LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY WASHING OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERTOP OF NE FL/SE GA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
SE GA AND LEAVE OUT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS THIS BALL OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISPERSES IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR INLAND SE GA AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50% RAINFALL
CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE FL/GA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR LESS ACROSS NE FL
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA WHILE THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTHERN
GA AND CAROLINAS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A REMARKABLE INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-600 MB LEVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
PRIMING OF THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD OCCUR MID DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT LOBE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. HAVE STRATIFIED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SE GEORGIA SATURDAY WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE ST MARYS
RIVER TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ONE GOES NORTHWARD
TOWARD HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY. ONLY RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER INTERIOR SE GA AS BEST FORCING
MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING FURTHER SOUTH...BREEZY NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SATURDAY NIGHT... MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR INLAND SE GA
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERCOASTAL AND COASTAL NE FL.

&&

.MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE BROAD CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WILL BE MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR.
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED MONDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WESTERN GEORGIA AND PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL LEND TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH THIS SAID...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS
SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT
FORCING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE /CHRISTMAS THROUGH FRIDAY/...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S SE GA AND IN THE 40
TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NE FL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
A SUNNY DAY AND HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COMMENCEMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING TONIGHT AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR CALM WINDS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBYS IN FOG AND FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS NE FL TAF SITES. FURTHER
NORTH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT KSSI AND
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION WITH VCSH IN TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET. A BOUNDARY WILL SEEP INTO
NE FL SATURDAY AND BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
OUTER GA WATERS WITH OFFSHORE WATERS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW-MOD RISK ON SATURDAY AS
NE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT ISSUED TO ALERT USERS TO ONE OF THE DRIEST
LATE NOV THRU MID DEC PERIODS ON RECORD ACROSS NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  10  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALSH





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.