Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 050537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION
LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC
MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED
AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER
ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME.
DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF
THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD
AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS
RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF
SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD
SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND
QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO
CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON
TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH.
HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGH HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR


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