Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 191937
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058>060-108-
111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY






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