Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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857
FXUS63 KJKL 141702
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1202 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

DID AN UPDATE TO REFRESH THE HOURLY TEMPS AND TO SLOW DOWN THE
WARMER TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED
SNOW AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. THE IMPRESSIVE 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES SEEN IN
PAH MIGHT NOT HOLD UP INTO JKL BUT STILL SUSPECT THAT THOSE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS
EVENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
HELPING TO GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO POSSIBLE SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON SO SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE THE FORECAST BUT DID A
QUICK REFRESH WITH HOURLY TEMPS.

ALSO STARTED MENTIONING THE RISK OF FLOODING IN THE HWO FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN THAT DOES
FALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY EAST
TO FORT KNOX. WILL SEE LIGHT BANDS MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF ACTIVITY
ARRIVES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
AREAS FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL SEE STEADIER SNOW ARRIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO ADD UP TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY
MID MORNING MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCTS STILL REMAIN INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A CONCISE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MIDWEST. WILL SEE THIS DISTURBANCE
SLIDE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BRINGING A SWATH OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING SNOWFALL ON THE ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA STATE LINE AS OF 4 AM. SNOW WILL BEGIN LOCALLY FROM
FLEMINGSBURG TO MONTICELLO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MOUNT STERLING TO WEST LIBERTY TO PAINTSVILLE
LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS...RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS A FEW OF
THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE GREATEST INCREASE IN
GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CREATING A
SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AS
THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. DEEP ENOUGH COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
AHEAD OF A BROADER TROUGH FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE SAME TRACK MONDAY
WILL TRANSITION EVERYTHING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES
THROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO LATCH ON TO A WARM NOSE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR A QUICK
SHOT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COMPLETE
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS. THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR
MONTICELLO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW THE LONGEST
WHERE THE COLD AIR RESIDES THE LONGEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGING.

HEAVY RAIN COULD BEGIN TO CREATE ISSUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS WITH GREATER SNOWPACK AND
FROZEN GROUND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY GOING FORWARD AFTER
TODAY/TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH TRAILING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE
WEST. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO BE WARMER AND MORE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY MODELS SUGGESTING EVENTUAL LOSS OF ICE. THE
CONCERN TRANSITIONS TO HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT WILL ADD TO THE QPF THAT FALLS MONDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD
SPELL SOME SORT OF HYDRO ISSUES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE MODELS PAINT A HALF OF A INCH PLUS STRIPE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE
MODEL BLENDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED FURTHER AS WE BEGIN
TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC EVENT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO COME INTO A BIT BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SPOKE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHILE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS REMAIN AS EITHER WE ARE TOO
WARM OR LOOSE ICE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE KEPT MUCH OF THIS
RAIN BEFORE MIXING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND BACK TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. MODELS DO TRY TO KEEP SOME SORT OF NW
FLOW FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THAT OUT.
SURFACE HIGH IS POISED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE NE/MID
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE COUPLED RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND EVEN A 588 DAM BAROTROPIC
AREA SETTING UP IN THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP BRING A SURGE OF WARM
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS ALL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DEGRADATION TO IFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. VERY WELL MAY SEE SOME LIFR OR VLIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN MORE
MODERATE/HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-051-
052-104.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ050-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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