Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

Issued at 150 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

Another quiet night on tap with mostly clear skies. Did a quick
refresh of the hourly grids to reflect most recent obs. Sent
updated grids to NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1046 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Shower activity has ended locally with the loss of daytime
heating. Other than some mid-high clouds, look for patchy valley
fog to develop later tonight into Wednesday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 751 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Terrain-induced showers/storms continue to fizzle with loss of
surface-based heating. Will see dry conditions prevail nearer to
sunset and overnight with patchy valley fog developing by
Wednesday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed in the higher
terrain in VA, NC and TN this afternoon. These have remained
nearly stationary, but there is still an outside chance of a small
shower or thunderstorm developing in KY somewhere near the TN or
VA border late this afternoon. Will make any needed adjustments to
the hourly NDFD if radar and/or satellite trends indicate the need
to add a small chance near TN and VA for a few hours late this

Another quiet night weather wise is in store for the region
tonight. Fog was mainly confined to the river valleys last night,
and for tonight the forecast will follow the same idea. For
Wednesday low level flow becomes more southwesterly, with a
gradual increase in low level moisture. While convection today has
remained to our south and east, based on latest trends and model
data will introduce a small chance for showers and thunderstorms
near TN and VA for Wednesday afternoon. Chances will gradually
increase Wednesday night as a front approaches from the northwest.

Temperatures will remain summer like with lows tonight and
Wednesday night in the 60s and highs on Wednesday in the mid to
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Models remain in decent agreement with the overall upper level
pattern through a good portion of the long term period. There will
be a weak cold front dropping south toward the Ohio Valley region
Thursday. The question will be where does the cold front hang up,
given this will have the biggest implications on the sensible
weather. Overall the GFS remains the model that wants to bring the
boundary south of the region by Friday, meanwhile the
ECMWF/Canadian keep the boundary near or just to the north along
the Ohio River. Right now leaning toward high chance to low likely
given the boundary near by for Thursday. Also forecast soundings
indicate very little steering flow and deep layer moisture in
place this could lead to heavy rainfall with any of the storms
that do develop. Also profiles suggest ample instability which
could lead to a few marginally severe storms, however given the
high freezing levels and little if any shear would think marginal
wind gust might be the only real threat at this point. More issues
arise Friday as uncertainty exists on the location of the
boundary, so for now will lean close to the model blend which
produces chance pops.

The remainder of the long term we are met with a eventual shift in
the pattern. Saturday another cold front will approach from the
west coupled with a northern stream trough. This will bring
additional showers and storms to the region, and right now best
chances look to be late Saturday into early Sunday. There are
still some differences with the upper level pattern into early
next week, with the GFS having the most depth to the trough. Right
now either way looks like west to northwest flow will lead to a
cool down and drying conditions into the early part of next week.
Matter of fact temps have a chance to fall below normal after a
long stretch of generally above normal temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

VFR conditions look to largely prevail through Wednesday
night. Valley fog tonight expected to stay away from TAF sites,
but could potentially see a little sneak into SME and SJS given
current low dew point depressions. With overnight lows remaining
warm enough to keep crossover temperatures from being reached,
will opt to continue no mention of fog for now. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon, but spotty
coverage will preclude any mention at this time.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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