Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291646
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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