Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230220
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IF ONE CAN IMAGINE A TILTED OMEGA SYMBOL...THEN THERE
IS A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC GYRE TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
BIGHT...FLANKED BY A TUTT CELL SOUTH OF CUBA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
AREA COASTAL WATERS LIE AT THE BASE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...CORROBORATED
BY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW FROM 500 MB TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REMAIN POORLY
DEFINED. THE RADAR IS MYSTERIOUSLY ECHO FREE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE GENTLE NORTHEAST
BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. AS GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
RESUME...WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE COUNTERED BY DRIER AIR...INDICATED
BY MIMIC TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BALANCES THE PROS WITH THE CONS.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/23RD...THE BEST CHANCE OF A BOUT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER 08Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST WINDS OF AROUND
5 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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