Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231943
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
343 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - A surface Atlatnic ridge extends across the Florida
peninsula, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast
breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. A bit of
inhibition and dry air is present above ~750 mb. Despite this, a
moist boundary layer and maritime cloud features are supporting a
swath of isolated to scattered showers moving northwestward
through the Old Bahamas Channel and into the Florida Keys.
Surface-wise conditions are seasonably warm and humid with
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 and dew points in the
upper 70s.

Forecast - The Atlantic surface ridge will remain across the
Florida Peninsula tonight into Saturday. As a result, gentle to
moderate east breezes will continue through this period, with a
slight trend downwards. Ridging aloft will hold keeping rain
chances slight. Expect near normal temperatures and moisture
through.

The ridge will retreat eastwards into the Atlantic beginning
Saturday night as a surface trough aligns along the Atlantic
seaboard. As a result, mostly east winds will relax significantly
Sunday into early next week. Guidance suggests the upper level
ridging will weaken as a broad mid latitude trough dips sharpens
into the Carolinas and Georgia. Deep layered moisture is expected
to tip upwards while heights aloft fall marginally. Meanwhile,
the dry stabilizing lower levels will erode and moisten. Showers
and a few thunderstorms will have an easier time in developing
and persisting despite the weaker flow. Have retained mid chance
pops for Monday through Tuesday.

Thereafter, the mid latitude trough will swing out of North
America, allowing weak ridging aloft to return. Rain chances will
dip to low chance or less. The Atlantic ridge will once again
build westward into the southeastern United States, maintaining
light to gentle east breezes. Near normal temperatures will
continue with seasonable stickiness.

&&

.MARINE...
An Atlantic ridge stretching across the Florida Peninsula will
slowly weaken over the next 24 hours. With that said, a wind
surge is expected across the Florida Straits late this afternoon
and evening, and again to a lesser degree tomorrow afternoon and
evening. A small craft advisory will be hoisted for the Florida
Straits tonight, but will likely not be required tomorrow. Winds
will relax further beginning early Sunday and into early next week
as the Atlantic ridge retreats eastwards.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail tonight with southeast winds near 10
knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  89  82  89 / 20 10 10 20
Marathon  82  91  82  92 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....KN
Data Collection......DR

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