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000
FXUS62 KKEY 070952
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
452 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A broken line of weak showers ahead of a weak cold front over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening intensified as it
migrated eastward across the Florida Keys and adjoining coastal
waters overnight.  In fact, a few cells even grew into thunderstorms.
Currently, the line of showers and storms extends from the Florida
Reef tract off the upper Keys to about 20 nautical miles south of
Dry Tortugas.  Gradient flow has collapsed, as expected, and winds
have gone calm or light and variable at most stations.  It is very
muggy out with both air and dewpoint temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s.

The cold front just north and northwest of the service area will
stall as both upper forcing diminishes and supporting gradient flow
collapses.  An arctic mass just now beginning to spill across the
high plains will expand southeastward across most of the central
and eastern United States today through Friday, and the accelerating
northerlies along its southeastward flank will send a cold front
through the Florida Keys sometime Thursday night.  Weather will
remain a little unsettled between now and then, with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers.  The front
is not likely to make too much progress equatorward Friday, and
latest model solutions bring it back as a warm front during the
Saturday-Sunday time frame.  We have increased sky cover and
rain chances a bit for this period to account for increased lift
associated with moisture and warm thermal advection.  A decent
northeast to east blow is expected to commence Thursday night,
persisting through Sunday.
&&

.MARINE...
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys
marine zones.  A low pressure system near the mid-Atlantic coast
will shift eastward toward Bermuda today.  A weak pressure pattern
will set in across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters
today and tonight.  An arctic air mass will expand across much of
the central and eastern United States today through Thursday, and
a cold front likely will reach the Florida Keys Thursday night,
with a period of strong northeast to east breezes Friday through
Sunday.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR is expected to prevail at EYW & MTH early on in the TAF period
due to lower ceilings and passing showers and storms. Winds will be
light and variable, except in the case of a passing shower.
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail after 15Z. Amendments will be
issued as necessary.
&&

.CLIMATE...
The low temperature yesterday at Key West was 79F.  This breaks the
daily warm minimum temperature record of 77F for 6 December, last
set in 2013.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  76  82  71 / 30 20 30 30
Marathon  85  76  84  70 / 30 20 30 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Kasper
Aviation/Nowcasts....Vickery

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