Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260240
AFDKEY

ZCZC MIAWRKAFD 260226
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM
ACROSS SOUTHER BAJA CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING. THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER
RIDGE IS NEAR 29 NORTH 77 WEST...WITH WATER VAPOR ILLUSTRATING THE
CUSP OF THE DRIEST AIR REMAINS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR 37 NORTH 62 WEST.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND
COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 1.59 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...THE UPPER KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF IN THE UPPER KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WINDS ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.

.FORECAST...TWEAKED THE WINDS UPWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS GIVEN BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER OFF
OF THE UPPER KEYS BUT THIS HAS BEEN NEAR SHOWERS WHICH ARE DWINDLING
GIVEN EXPECTED MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONAL SCALE RIDGING. SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD PWAT FALLING DOWN BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES AND THE DRIER
AIR TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED GIVEN THE DWINDLING...LOWERED POPS TO 10
PERCENT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS IN FLORIDA BAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER...SO HAVE REPLACED THE ADVISORY
WITH A SCEC ACROSS THESE WATERS. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT OFF OF THE
UPPER KEYS. THESE MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE ON THE
UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20
KNOTS...ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT FLORIDA BAY...WHERE A CAUTION IS IN
PLACE FOR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ALSO HAVE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS GIVEN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATERS.

&&
.AVIATION... UNTIL 12Z/26TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR
ENCOUNTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ032>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

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