Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 251943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
243 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest
available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 200 pm, continue to depict an expansive low
amplitude trough encompassing the Central and Western CONUS, with
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, latest marine and land
observations and analysis as of 200 pm, detail the axis of a
1020-1024 mb ridge axis which presently extends from about 30 N
70 W, west southwest to across North Florida and into the SW Gulf
of Mexico.

.CURRENTLY...As of 200 pm, temperatures across the islands are in
the Lower 80s with dewpoints clinging around 70 degrees. Skies are
mostly sunny and radar is completely devoid of any echoes attm.
C-man stations are recording southeast winds between 10 and 15
knots, with island platforms at 10 to 15 mph.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight thru Thursday night, an extended period of
above normal temperatures with dewpoints remaining in the high 60s
to around 70 will continue across the islands. But with a
decreasing breeze it will certainly feel hotter but these
conditions will be favored by the avid recreational boaters who
will experience very ideal sea conditions as we round out the last
week of February. Surface high pressure across Northern Florida
will slide down the peninsula tonight and set up shop across South
Florida just north of the Keys, remaining in that position until
late in the week, but the ridge may actually oscillate near the
Keys Wednesday Night thru Thursday night, with the lightest winds
possible during that timeframe. So light to gentle southeast winds
will could become variable for a few periods by the middle of the
week. Forecast soundings continue to indicate middle level dry
air filtering down into the lower troposphere tonight so have
removed pops over the islands. A few showers may be possible
during Monday morning, but took pops out over the islands beyond
that time thru Thursday night. High temperatures in the lower to
middle 80s, and lows in the lower 70s will continue to be above
normal for this time of year.


.LONG TERM...Friday thru Sunday, consistent indications in the
models suggest a late season cool/weak cold front will move
across the Gulf and down the Peninsula during Thursday, reaching
South Florida by Friday, and across the Keys Friday evening. The
moisture profile is extremely scant with little or any associated
lift at the time of arrival, so only a dime pop is in the grids in
association with its arrival attm. Thereafter high temperatures
in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s would actually be near
normal March rolls in like a little lamb.


.MARINE...No SCA Advisories and/or SCEC cautionary statements are
in place across the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys
tonight, Sunday and thru the upcoming week.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and
Marathon terminals through this evening and overnight hours. Near
surface winds will be out of the southeast between 5 and 10 knots.


Key West  73  83  72  83 / -  10 -  -
Marathon  73  85  72  84 / -  10 -  -




Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas U
Upper Air/Data Collection......Devanas

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