Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 190850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
450 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds across the islands are from the northeast solidly 5 to 10
knots, with the CMAN stations along the reef in the 8-13 knot
range. Key West and Miami radars finding isolated showers out in
the straits generally moving towards the southwest. No showers
currently detected north of the Keys or along the islands. The
Key West evening sounding is most likely not representative of the
current atmosphere as mid troposphere is beginning to dry as dry
air moves in from the Gulf in the wake of the mid level trough
moving off to the east. Only infrequent lightning strikes over the
Florida Straits waters with shower tops struggling to make 30K

Thursday and Friday...Showers will struggle to develop as the
boundary layer continues to dry. GFS model soundings display IPWV
values near 1.3" by Thursday afternoon with significant drying
below 700mb. Lightning looks very improbable through Friday
morning. Surface winds, and through the lowest few kilometers,
will remain moderate to fresh out of the northeast as the lower
tropospheric ridge remains planted over the southeastern CONUS.

Saturday through Wednesday...As the ridge over the southeast
begins to migrate off the eastern seaboard, winds will slowly
begin to veer to southeast. The pressure gradient as well will
slowly relax, with winds beginning to decrease by Monday
afternoon. Of course, all eyes are fixed on what appears to be
more likely every model run; the first cold front of the season
pushing through on Wednesday.


Gentle to moderate northeast breezes are expected over all Florida
Keys coastal waters through Thursday evening. Isolated showers are
possible, mainly over Hawk Channel and the Florida straits. No
thunderstorms are anticipated at this time.


VFR conditions will be observed today at both terminals. Winds will
be 5 to 10 knots generally from the northeast.




Key West  87  77  86  76 / 20 20 30 30
Marathon  87  77  86  76 / 20 20 30 30





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