Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 272353 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The SREF...HRRR...HRRREXP and RAP models suggest one more round of
fog developing late tonight and affecting areas along and east of
highway 83 across ncntl Neb. This one looks more like an advection
upslope fog event but the models suggest visibility could fall to
1/4 mile. Areas of fog are in the forecast.

The rain event for Tuesday continues on track. There have been only
minor changes to the forecast...mainly regarding timing. The model
consensus is a bit slower with the onset of the rain moving in after
midnight tonight.

The RAP model indicates precipitable water will increase to around
0.75 inches which is above 200 percent of normal and a very modest
30kt low level jet develops tonight aiming the moisture up the high
plains. The moisture advection should continue Tuesday until severe
weather gets underway across the Srn Plains. Thereafter easterly
upslope winds will draw moisture into the storm affecting wrn and
ncntl Neb.

The forecast uses a blended approach for rainfall. The SREF and GEF
were the wettest solns. These models were able to focus more
moisture advection farther north.

Temperatures...winds and dew points are a blend of guidance plus
bias correction for lows in the 30s and 40s tonight and highs in the
40s and 50s Tuesday which was very close to a blend deterministic
model data with or without bias correction.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

An active pattern this week across much of the country, as a series
of Pacific storm systems track east and amplify, creating widespread
rain in the plains and mountain snow. Some snow may mix in across
the western high plains, but accumulations seem unlikely at this
time due to mild temperatures.

The first system will slowly cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
A shortwave trough will dig southeast from the Pacific northwest,
and be located across northern New Mexico by early Tuesday evening
where it will have closed off. Deep southerly mid and upper level
flow from TX to NE ahead of the system, with bands of rain moving
northward within the flow Tuesday night. By Wednesday evening the
system will have migrated to western Oklahoma or southern Kansas,
with a deformation band of rain located to it`s northwest. It
continues to appear that our far southeast portions from Broken Bow
to North Platte stand the best shot of getting in on this
deformation band of precipitation, but a slight northward shift of
the system would mean more of the area seeing precipitation from the
band. By Thursday this will all begin to shift east of the area with
some sunshine by afternoon in area of subsidence aloft behind the
system. Right now thinking a widespread 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain
will accumulate from this first system, with the 1.25 inch amounts
most likely across southwest Nebraska.

A second system takes a similar path and dives southeast into
northern New Mexico by Saturday. It too is forecasted to close off
and then track eastward across the central and southern plains
through the weekend. Chance to likely pops will remain in the
forecast for this system, with the best chances at this time
appearing to reside across southwest Nebraska.

As far as temperatures this week, mild conditions with near normal
highs in the 50s. Low temperatures, however, will average a bit
above normal in the 30s to near 40 degrees due to abundant cloud
cover and expected precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Clouds will increase from the west tonight with stratus developing
generally after midnight. Ceilings will lower into IFR categories
with MVFR visibilities as light rain developw over western
Nebraska through the early morning hours and slowly moves east.
Widespread light rain will continue over most of western Nebraska
through the day on Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power



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