Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 230506
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail with the exceptions being some
MVFR to IFR in BR at KMCB later tonight/early Sunday morning, and
TEMPO lower conditions in scattered SHRA/TSRA. The timing of
SHRA/TSRA should start in coastal/southern areas either late
tonight or early to mid morning, then expand/develop inland during
late morning and afternoon. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Rather active day today with scattered to possibly
even numerous thunderstorms at times. Storm motion was very slow and
multiple boundary collisions led to a few areas seeing storms
persist for a little while leading to decent rainfall.

Ridge that was over the area and is breaking down will continue to
do so as a strong s/w works southeast through the Great lakes
region. This in combination with the mid level low overhead will
lead to even better rain chances tomorrow for much of the area.
Moisture will continue to be at a surplus with pws expected above 2
inches again.

We will still have elevated rain chances to start the work week. The
combination of lowered hghts and a weak bndry trying to slide into
the area could provide a focus for at least Mon. However by Tue the
deeper moisture could shift just to the north and east and while mid
lvl temps begin to rise. This will lead to slightly lower rain
chances on Tue but by mid week and through the remainder of the work
week the ridge should build back in enough overhead to provide near
normal to possibly even slightly below normal rain chances. With
that look for the heat to return Tue and through Fri.

AVIATION...Biggest issue with respect to the TAFs will be
convection. Convection will likely continue to impact much of the
terminals over SELA along with MCB but looking at radar trends
coastal MS should be fine through at least the remainder of the
afternoon. However a few storms could still impact GPT this evening.
Better chance for coastal MS could be during the early morning
hours. Outside of convection most terminals will deal with VFR
conditions.

MARINE...Still looks like high pressure will build in from the east
across the northern Gulf while a weak front tries to drop into the
area early in the work week. This should lead to a slightly tighter
gradient with winds out of the southwest. winds may become more
westerly by mid late next week. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be more prevalent during the early morning hours and of course
winds and seas will likely be higher near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  90  74  90 /  20  50  40  50
BTR  75  92  75  92 /  30  40  20  20
ASD  76  92  76  92 /  30  40  30  40
MSY  76  93  76  93 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  76  89  77  91 /  30  40  30  40
PQL  74  90  74  91 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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