Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 082121
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST
FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY STRONG
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
STRONG WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER INLAND ZONES THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND OVERALL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECREASES. HOWEVER...FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTH
OF THE TIDAL LAKES...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO CONTINUED THERMAL MIXING
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE WARMER
NEARSHORE AND LAKE WATERS. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING MOST OF METRO NEW ORLEANS.

THESE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG
THE COAST. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE HEART OF THE 925MB COLD
POOL WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALLING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER...SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE FAR LESS EXTREME.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WEAK MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
IN DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARM UP WILL BE
AIDED BY INCREASING WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION FROM CLEAR SKIES...AND A
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS COOLING INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AS THE PARENT CLIPPER SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES COLDER BOTH IN TERMS OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
MIDWESTERN STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN
CHANCES HAVE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE PERIOD WILL
BE THE WINDS. THEY WILL BE ELEVATED AND GUSTING WELL OVER 25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
SOME OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AFTER
SUNSET. THE SITES SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL REMAIN GUSTY A
LITTLE BIT LONGER. WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME ISSUES FOR TOMORROW AS WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AS
MIXING KICKS IN WITH SUNRISE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO EASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS...WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND TIDAL LAKES. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE NEARSHORE WATERS. IN THE OPEN
GULF WATERS...WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO
14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS A SURFACE
HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL TYPICALLY BE
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 4 FEET OR LESS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS COULD RISE INTO THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO BRINGING
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE FOR ADVISORY/GALE WARNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  51  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  52  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  33  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  32  52  31  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056-057-059-065>067-071-072.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ058-060>064-068>070.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

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