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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. ISOLD TS near MAF/FST
21-03Z but coverage not enough to mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge, currently centered across the Gulf coast states,
will continue to build west today, increasing heights from the
east. A surface trough invof the higher terrain today looks to
increase southeast flow and higher dewpoints are expected to
expand westward. Despite increasing heights, afternoon heating
along with southeast/upslope flow and persistent moisture may be
enough to warrant at least a slight chance for thunderstorms
across much of the area...although instability looks to be much
lower than what we have seen in previous days. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the main threat and may result in
areas of flash flooding, especially across urban areas. 850mb
temperatures look to back off a few degrees from yesterday so
highs will be a few degrees cooler.

No major changes to the forecast beyond today... The upper ridge
will continue to build to the west and become centered over TX by
this weekend. This looks to decrease rain chances across much of
the FA however we could get enough heating/instability along with
southeast/upslope flow in and near the mountains to overcome the
somewhat weak hold of the upper ridge for some afternoon/evening
storms each day beginning Friday through the weekend. Next week,
the upper ridge may strengthen a bit overhead, decreasing rain
chances even more. High temperatures look to remain near or
slightly above normal for mid August this weekend and through the
beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       97  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         95  76  97  77 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 89  67  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          93  69  91  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          86  63  86  65 /  40  20  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           96  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         96  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           99  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10