319
FXUS64 KMAF 090517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

No significant changes for the short term forecast with dry and warm
weather continuing. WV satellite imagery shows a broad upper level
low situated over northern CONUS which will transition to an
positively tilted trough tonight, maintaining dry southwesterly flow
aloft. A tightening gradient and compressional warming from
downsloping winds today indicate above-normal temperatures with
breezy winds this afternoon, and highs should reach the upper
80s/low 90s with 100s along the Rio Grande. Given the gusty winds
and low humidity today, a Red Flag Warning in effect, and more
information can be found in the fire weather discussion below.
Things start to change on Thursday as a low cuts off from the upper
level trough, pivoting over Utah and helping to pull a cold front
down into Texas and New Mexico late Thursday. Model guidance places
the front across the far northern portions of our CWA a few hours
after peak heating, continuing a southward progression through
Friday morning. There may be a decent temperature spread for highs
on Thursday depending on the true arrival of the front, but for now,
expect a similar day to Wednesday with highs mainly in the upper
80s/low 90s.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thursday night, the upper trough is forecast to be parked over
Nevada/Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
southwest flow aloft.  At the surface, a cold front will push
southwest through to the Presidio Valley by 12Z, dropping highs
Friday to AOB normal.  Long-range models bring a shortwave through
the Big Bend Area Friday, and this could kick off some convection
Friday and Friday evening.

During this time, the upper trough begins moving east, to near the
Four Corners by 06Z Sunday.  At 06Z Saturday, the dryline is
forecast to be west of KELP, with modest low level moisture in
place, and surface dewpoints most areas in the 50s.  Large-scale
ascent as the trough approaches, as well as easterly upslope flow,
will open a window Saturday for perhaps the best chances of rain
this forecast.  POPs have jumped significantly in the last 24 hours.
Long-range models still depict 40-60kts of deep-layer shear
Saturday.  On yesterday`s runs, models kept the steeper mid-layer
lapse rates west of the CWA, but on today`s runs, they`re a bit
farther east into our higher terrain, so some severe activity is
looking more plausible for Saturday, especially in the warmer
temperatures southwest.  The upshot is PWATs increasing to ~ 1.25"
or better by 18Z Saturday at KMAF, over 2 std devs higher than the
mean of 0.67".  So, a heavy rain possibility exists, as well.  It
would be nice to see the higher (western) terrain get some much-
needed rain.  Saturday looks to be the coolest day this forecast,
w/highs coming in a pathetic ~ 10F below normal.

Sunday, the trough passes north of the region, and a gradual
recovery begins under zonal flow aloft.  A Pac front will shove the
dryline east, and convection along/east of this feature will be
possible, tapering off to the east Sunday evening.  Redevelopment is
possible Monday afternoon, mainly over the Western Low Rolling
Plains.  By Wednesday afternoon, highs should be back up to a
respectable 5-7F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR VIS expected throughout TAF period. Winds become gusty today
16Z-01Z across western terminals west and southwest of MAF. Gusts
at MAF stay below 20kts. Passage of cold front causes westerly
winds to shift to northeasterly. Wind shift proceeds 00Z-05Z
Friday for terminals across SE NM and north of Pecos River, and
then southwest of the Pecos River, with increased gusts up to
20kts after 03Z north of Pecos River. MVFR CIGs move in from
northeast after 02Z Friday but will not be present at terminals
until after end of period. Cold front and associated wind shift
could arrive sooner or later than forecast for southernmost
terminals south of Pecos River.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue to be dryline dependent,
and confined to areas that did not receive rainfall last week.

Thursday, a cold front will limit critical fire weather over the
northeast, but areas south of the front will still see single-digit
relative humidity.  However, increased 20-ft winds will be confined
to the higher terrain, confining higher RFTIs there.  With ERCs west
of the Pecos 75th percentile or higher, this could be a marginal
critical fire weather day, and we`ll leave this up to the next shift
to decide.

Friday through Wednesday, only near-critical fire weather conditions
are anticipated, and west of the Pecos at that.  Higher RFTIs look
isolated enough each day to yield an elevated fire weather threat at
best.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  58  79  59 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 88  56  76  58 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                  100  66  82  65 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton            96  60  78  62 /   0  10  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           79  53  69  55 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    85  54  75  55 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                    87  51  79  53 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     89  59  77  60 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   90  60  77  60 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     93  60  76  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...94