366
FXUS64 KMAF 141756
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the
  week, mainly in/near the higher terrain (30-70% there, 10-30%
  elsewhere). Localized flash flooding remains possible.

- High temperatures gradually warm towards normal through the
  week. Return of near 100F temperatures possible next weekend.

- Rain chances (<30%) decrease this weekend and into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge extending from just
of the SoCal coast into the Central Plains, and another covering the
Gulf Coast states, with a stubborn col running SW-NE through Texas.
Aside from the usual orographic activity over the higher terrain due
to easterly upslope flow, CAMs develop a region of convection to the
southeast in line w/the orientation of the col, and this will result
in isolated convection tonight, mainly over the lower Trans Pecos.
KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.16", just over the daily mean of
1.12", so any widespread flood threat has ceased to exist.  The LLJ
is forecast to be tepid overnight...well under 30 kts...so overnight
minimums should bottom out right around normal.

Tuesday, the col remains oriented SW-NE over the southeastern half
of the CWA, for another round of convection from south of I-10 up
through the southeast Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
As soils continue to dry out, thicknesses will increase, resulting
in a continuing warming trend.  Even so, highs Tuesday afternoon
will still come in 3-4 F below climatology, adding a degree or so
onto today`s highs.

Tuesday night, the LLJ increases a bit, and mixing will keep
overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.  Convection
should taper off to the south during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Rain chances remain highest over the Davis Mountains (30-70%) and
southeast New Mexico (10-50%) heading into the middle/late parts of
the week as a monsoonal weather pattern continues over the region.
Ridging remains across the southern CONUS, resulting in a gradual
warming trend during the extended. Highs ranging from the low to mid
90s through Saturday and upper 90s to triple digits by Sunday/early
next week (80s over the higher terrain) are forecast. Expect
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for most with 60s over the
higher terrain. At this time, rain chances (<30%) decrease late in
the period.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  91  72  93 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  91  71  96 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   72  91  73  95 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton            69  93  73  96 /   0  20   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           65  86  68  89 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    66  89  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  86  64  87 /   0  40  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  90  73  94 /   0  20   0   0
Odessa                   69  89  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     68  92  72  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99