Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
southeasterly winds through this evening. Winds will veer to the
south tonight, with gusts to around 20KT possible for both MAF and
FST. Sunday morning, winds will begin to shift to the southwest
at all terminals, and could increase and become gusty just beyond
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/


DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels a flat ridge will stretch across the southern
tier of states as an upper trough moves down the CA coast to
Mexico. This trough will quickly swing east but weaken as it
passes across SE NM Sunday. A stronger trough will come ashore the
NW coast Sunday and merge with a southern trough early next week
and pass over the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday. After that
the region will stay on the east side of an upper ridge centered
over the West.

With the weak trough passing over the area Sunday and with 700mb
wind of 45kts or greater will continue with the High Wind Watch for
the Guadalupe Mtns.

A backdoor front moving through the area this morning will result in
below normal temperatures today with highs in the 50s north to 70s
along the Rio Grande.  As of 09z the front appears to be located
near the Pecos River.  The wind will come back around to the south
late in the day and aid the warm up Sunday.  Highs Sunday back into
the 70s and continue through Tuesday.  The upper trough
Tuesday/Wednesday will push a cold front through the area with
cooler temps Wednesday through Friday.

With little low level moisture to work with will continue the dry
forecast through next Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin early this
morning with very good RH recovery across these areas. Elsewhere RH
recovery has been fairly poor thus far. Winds will become southerly
across the east today with westerly winds returning across the
western half of the CWA. Areas out west will see min RH/s drop to
near 10 percent this afternoon but thankfully wind speeds will
remain below 20 mph most locations. The exception will be for the
Guadalupe Mountains where critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop as winds increase to 30-35mph sustained with
gusts up to 50mph. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon for the Guadalupe Mountains.

Min RH/s near 10 percent can be expected areawide Sunday with west
winds increasing across the region. Confidence is high that critical
fire weather conditions will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains
given the high winds expected. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for this area. The adjacent plains of Southeast NM and West TX could
also see a brief period of near critical wind speeds however
confidence was not high enough at this time to include these areas
in the watch. Will continue to monitor the potential and make
adjustments later if needed. Otherwise, elevated to near critical
fire weather could occur Monday and Tuesday as well, so stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  73  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  77  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  60  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          35  69  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  73  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         41  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$


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