Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 202328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should become MVFR around 06z and continue through
at least Sunday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the next
24 hours at the terminals due to the remains of tropical system
and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in thunderstorms
and fog.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding continued over portions of the forecast area due to
the remnants of Tropical System Odile.  Although the areal coverage
of rain today was not as extensive as Thursday or Friday, over 10
inches of rain fell over portions of Borden County from 6 to 9 am
CDT, and resulted in most of the Farm to Market roads being flooded
across the eastern half of the county, water rising to resident
homes and some roads being impassable in Gail.  In addition, flood
water was slow to recede over southern Eddy County, northern
Culberson and northern Reeves County.  Evacuations were reported on
the northwest side of the city of Pecos due to runoff from heavy
rain to their west and northwest spreading east and southeast.

It appears the mid level remnants of Odile are weakening today, but
shearing out and moving southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  A
Mesoscale Convective Vortex over the northern CWA, and definitely
the tropical moisture over the area, resulted in the very heavy
rainfall in Borden County, 3-4 inches per hour conservatively per
the Texas Tech Mesonet site 2 ESE of Gail.  The latest progs
indicate the remnant circulation will move southward through the
Texas Panhandle and impinge upon eastern portions of the forecast
area later today and tonight.  The MCV over the northern CWA does
not appear to be moving appreciably.  The latest KMAF radar trends
this afternoon indicated showers and thunderstorms developing over
the Permian Basin, and in and near the Davis and Glass Mountains,
and more convection developing around the MCV.  Think convection
will continue to develop through the afternoon, and tonight when a
low level jet (LLJ) increases.  Convection could become more
widespread, especially considering the modus operandi of this
tropical airmass/system has been for nocturnal convection to
flourish when interacting with the nocturnal LLJ.  Considering all
of the above, the saturated ground which continues to expand over
more of the forecast area, and the potential for more heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, will extend the Flash Flood Watch through
tonight and Sunday.

On Sunday, it appears we will begin to be the recipients of more
tropical moisture, this time from Tropical Storm Polo, which is off
the western Mexico coast this afternoon.  Despite being separated
from this cyclone by a weak upper level ridge, it appears some
moisture peels away from this system and moves north, then
northeastward around/under the ua ridge.  It is not clear whether
any mid level circulations will peel away from this system, but
think there is enough evidence to keep PoPs high, and the FFA going
through Sunday.  Also of concern Sunday is a weak frontal boundary
moving into the area, which will provide a low level focus for
shower and thunderstorm development.  Despite the surface ridge
gradually pushing into the area Sunday night and Monday,
precipitable water amounts remain around 1.5 inches.  So, the
potential exists for heavy rains to continue beyond Sunday.  It
looks like we could dry out somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday, but high
temperatures look to stay near or below normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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