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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over SW AZ, and will
result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24 hours.
Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow this AM, w/some of
this making it into KMAF before 18Z. Otherwise, buffer soundings
suggest a widespread cu field developing by late morning, w/cigs
3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show some -SHRA in the area, and models
suggest more convection will develop into western terminals by
late morning. Cigs should remain VFR in convection, except SE NM,
where they could dip into MVFR at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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