Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
509 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017


Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/


Cool across the Midsouth this holiday...with plenty of sunshine
and light winds making it at least comfortable. Temperatures this
hour were in the 50s area wide.

For tonight and tomorrow...surface high pressure over the region
will slowly drift southeast towards the Deep South providing for
winds to become south tonight. Strong radiative properties coupled
with a dry airmass will cool temperatures back to subfreezing for
the eastern counties...while the west may bottom out just above.
Southerly surface winds and increasing 850mb west winds will
strengthen the WAA to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s
tomorrow. High level clouds will advect in from the northwest...
with minimum afternoon RH dropping into the 30-35 percent range.

Tomorrow night through Saturday...a midlevel disturbance will
quickly move through the region this period...with thicker mid
level clouds advecting east across the Ozarks starting tomorrow
evening. On the surface a refection of the shortwave will be seen
as a wind shift line that will generally pass through the area
between 12 and 18z Saturday. Despite the threat for a few
sprinkles and the northerly wind shift temperatures will remain
warm...with plenty of highs in the 60`s.

Sunday and Monday...continued dry this period as the upper level
flow maintains its northwest orientation. Copious sunshine will
allow for temperatures to remain above normal.

Midweek...models continue to struggle with system timing next
week. The ECMWF and GFS both show energy becoming separated from
the main upper flow...becoming closed off in Rockies. The GFS
continues its faster and farther south approach with the 500mb
low track...while the ECMWF is slower and slightly more north.
Both model solutions show a return low level flow of moisture
bringing dewpoints into the mid 50s...with the GFS breaking out
precipitation as early as Tuesday afternoon...about 24 hours
ahead of the Euro. For now have taken a blend of both solutions
and kept precipitation chances below 50 percent...with a bigger
focus for rain on Wednesday. A few claps of thunder will also be
possible as lapse rate steepen near the closed low center. Milder
temperatures could warm the region even further Tuesday as south
winds increase. Overall readings for the three days will stay
above normal. No complaints.



00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Winds will be light and variable through Friday morning before
becoming southerly and increasing.




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