Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 030204
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST LEFT A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ALSO...WITH FOG/WELL
MIST/ IN TUPELO AND THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW IN
SOME PLACES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...SO INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK TO BE TRACKING WELL. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF AREA...HOWEVER A POST
FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL STICK AROUND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT KMKL AND KTUP...WITH KTUP LIKELY
SEEING LIFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG. VFR CONDS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
CIGS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN
TAF. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

AC3
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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