Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 172006
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
206 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH OUT OF THE SFC LOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE LOWS WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS
MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN
BUT OCCASIONAL SLEET IS MIXED IN. WITH THE ABUNDANT THICK CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...DO NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING THAT MUCH TONIGHT SO EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SLEET MIXING IN
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY SLEET THAT FALL. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S.

ON THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING TODAY.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW IF THIS DOES OCCUR...ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. STAY TUNED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ON SATURDAY.

EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CEILINGS AT MKL/JBR ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DETERIORATION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS AT JBR ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET AT MKL WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS MOMENT IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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