Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 230454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. TEMPERATURES AND WIND ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
STILL THINK FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS. TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEW POINTS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TURN LIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INDICATES CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG AND LI`S AS LOW AS -5 OR -6. INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS.  DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING. AS THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE
AGAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY EXT WEEK LOOK VERY INTERESTING. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN BRINGING
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND A ROUND OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY HAZARDS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 8 KTS...DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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