Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261031
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSIISSPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY AT THE SAME TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 16-18 KTS
BETWEEN THE 26/16-27/00Z TIME FRAME. LATER WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO
NORTHWEST...BUT DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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