Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

Similar to Tuesday evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms had
reformed over the TN River valley, following sunset. These showers
had formed under the right entrance region of an easterly 250mb
jet core over central MS, coincident with 2000 J/KG of surface-
based CAPE. This jet core will sink south of the region overnight,
while low level convective inhibition strengthen- suggesting the
isolated rainfall will dissipate.

15 PoPs were recently added to the TN River valley through 06Z/1


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

A transitional forecast period.  Strong upper ridge that has brought
excessive heat to the region will retrogress into the Rockies
beginning late this week.  The upper ridge will remain well west
next week resulting in an extended period of cooler weather.

Until the ridge moves sufficiently west another day of high heat
and humidity is expected. A heat advisory was extended for
roughly the western 2/3rds of the forecast area until 7 PM

A cold front that will put an end to the heat and humidity is
forecast to move through the region Thursday night and Friday.  With
plenty of moisture in place heavy rainfall and wet microbursts are
possible.  Isolated flash flooding is a threat along with those
gusty winds in any microburst that occur.

Polar continental airmass driving into the region for the weekend
will bring welcomed relief after the sultry conditions of the
past few days. The upper flow will remain northwest for next week
with a risk of scattered diurnal precipitation.



06Z TAFs

Patchy fog may produce temporary MVFR conditions at MKL/TUP overnight.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail at TAF sites
through most of the period. VCTS possible at sites Thursday night
as a cold front begins to approach the Lower Mississippi Valley.
VCTS will be possible at all sites Thursday night. Light winds
will increase to SW winds between 6-10 kts on Thursday.



AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for Coahoma-DeSoto-

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-


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