Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 011548
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED
EAST OF RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. MODELS INDICATE BACK EDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY NOON. WILL UPDATE TO TRIM POPS ACCORDINGLY.
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP WEST OF THE RIVER BUT
BULK OF RAIN WILL BE DONE WITH. THINK THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS PRECIP
IS MOVING EAST SO FAST.

MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS SO
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NO PRECIP AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NE ARKANSAS THAT WILL NEED TO ALSO BUMP
UP HIGHS TO THE MID 50S.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE PUSHING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WARMER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. THE
LOWER LEVELS WERE VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT
WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THE RAIN WAS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
LOW.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 1000 MB AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN BY SUNSET.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH
EASTERN AR BY NOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO NEAR THE TN RIVER AND THE MS /
AL BORDER BY SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AND THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. BASED ON THE
FORECAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ALSO...SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY PUSH INTO NORTH MS DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING THE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT
OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF THE MO BOOTHEEL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BEGAN TO SHOW THE POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

RAIN IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY END FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ONCE TEMPERATURES
BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE MO AND KY BORDERS REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER TX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST RAIN BEING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST.

THE WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW
THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF. SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO LIGHT
SNOW FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING POSSIBLE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE. FOR THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...
BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTERACTING WITH THE COLD AIR THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
COME TOGETHER ON THIS SITUATION REGARDING PRECIP IF ANY AND PRECIP
TYPES.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECTING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS A
BAND OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD JBR AND MEM...MKL AND TUP
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT OBS TO THE WEST...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXIST
WHICH WILL DEVELOP AT JBR AND MEM JUST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. RAINFALL
COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ADDED TEMPO THUNDER AT TUP WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST WINDOW FOR THIS LOOKS
TO BE BETWEEN APPROX 20-23Z. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 18-20 KTS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTH...GRADUALLY VEERING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TVT

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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