Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 251140
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Updated for aviation discussion
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures mainly in the 60s. There is
currently no rain over the forecast area but an area of
thunderstorms is moving across eastern Oklahoma and into western
Arkansas. These thunderstorms develop Tuesday night ahead of a
nearly stationary boundary which extends from eastern South Dakota
through extreme eastern Colorado and into eastern New Mexico.
These thunderstorms should continue to move east this morning and
eventually make their way into the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side today with highs in the mid to upper
By tonight...more thunderstorms should develop just ahead of the
front and start to move east. Thunderstorm coverage over the
forecast area will be less than during the day but can`t rule out
isolated thunderstorms developing during the evening. Temperatures
will remain warm with lows Thursday morning in the mid 60s to
Thursday looks to be somewhat similar to today as what remains of
the thunderstorms that develop tonight make their way into the
forecast area. Temperatures will also be similar to today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a better chance of
thunderstorms developing near the forecast area Thursday night and
Friday as the frontal boundary moves a little further east.
With the frontal boundary remaining well west of the forecast area
there is not much chance of widespread severe weather for today
through Friday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question but the key word here is isolated.
During the holiday weekend, little change in the weather pattern
is expected as the frontal boundary will remain over the central
and southern plains. This will mean a chance of thunderstorms
during the day from Saturday through Tuesday. It does appear that
there will be mainly dry weather during the evening and overnight
hours although an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out.
Temperatures will remain warm during the holiday weekend with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
VFR conds prevail across the region. A brief period of MVFR cigs
possible at KJBR and KMEM this morning. Timing on next round of
tsras from late this morning into the afternoon looks good with
disturbance over western AR tracking east. Activity should remain
north of KTUP. Most guidance indicates a relatively quiet
overnight attm. South winds will increase to 10-12 kts...higher
gusts at JBR and MEM. Stronger gusts possible during storms. Winds
will diminish this evening.