Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 071149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.

MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 /  40  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  79  91  79 /  40  20  20  10
NAPLES           90  76  92  75 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD


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