Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290007
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
807 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST SO PLACED VCSH IN FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS AND VCTS AT KAPF. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE BUT
WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER COOPERATED NICELY FOR THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES TO VISIT OUR OFFICE TODAY! HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 60S ON A NICE EASTERLY
BREEZE...REFRESHING FOR LATE MAY IN MIAMI. SHOWER COVERAGE HAS
INCREASED A TAD SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY ARE FAST MOVING SO
ARE VERY BRIEF. HAVE EXPANDED THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GULF
COAST THIS EVENING AND DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY WITH
ABNORMALLY LOW PW`S FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (JUST BELOW ONE
INCH/ALMOST RECORD TERRITORY)...THERE CONTINUES TO BE JUST ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BREEZE TO ALLOW FOR LOW- TOPPED FAST
MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AND SEE NO REASON THIS WILL
NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WERE MADE. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1 INCH. THERE IS
ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.6
INCHES. SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FOR THE EAST COAST IN
THE MORNING. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INLAND DUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER FLOW...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
TEXAS SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A MORE TYPICAL
EASTERLY FLOW RAINY SEASON PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST AND GULF COAST
AND NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT
500MB OF -9C...AND SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER LOUISIANA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE...WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS COASTAL/METRO AREAS AND
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS MAY INCREASE
TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
WEAK TO ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO TRY AND DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY...AS SHOWN BY THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY RELAX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  86  75  86 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  86  76  87 /  20  20  30  30
MIAMI            74  87  76  89 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           70  90  72  89 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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