Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 261457
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1057 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The 12Z Miami sounding indicated high moisture content continued
below 750 mb with PW of nearly 2 inches. However, since the
sounding time, the remnant front has pushed south of the site,
bringing slightly drier air. The tropical air mass remains in
place generally south of a line from Key Biscayne to Homestead to
north Cape Sable. Given nearly full sunshine and strong heating
over the land, sea breezes are expected to develop from the Gulf,
Lake Okeechobee, and Atlantic early this afternoon. The best
chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be over the
southern Peninsula along the remnant front and in the southern
interior (generally south of a line from Weston to Everglades
City) where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes collide in an
environment that is still sufficiently moist and unstable to
support deep moist convection. The prevailing mid level flow may
bring any showers or thunderstorms eastward toward the western or
central parts of the south metro corridor before dissipating
shortly after sunset. Forecast POPs were updated based on this
thinking and max temperatures were updated based on observed
trends. Otherwise earlier forecast package is in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 744 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017/

AVIATION...
Light offshore wind at all TAF sites this morning. Wind will
eventually turn onshore at all terminals around 17Z around 10
knots. The southern east coast terminals could see some showers
develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. Therefore, have
included VCSH beginning at 17Z. VFR conditions expected throughout
the period with occasional brief MVFR with showers that may pass
over the southern east coast terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)

Stalling cold front is draped over South Florida early this
morning, and at this point is becoming more and more difficult to
analyze. This feature will continue to influence weather today,
inducing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon over southeastern portions of the region, before
dissipating tonight. A few showers have persisted over southern
Atlantic waters overnight and this may continue through much of
the day. With light, slightly convergence low-level flow,
waterspouts are possible with this activity.

After today, deep layer high pressure will build overnight,
producing a weekend of mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures. Cant rule out an isolated interior thunderstorm over
the Everglades Saturday afternoon, but aside from near-surface
moisture, relatively dry air will dominate. Maxima will range
from upper 80s along the coast to mid 90s interior and heat
indices will be around 100 degrees. Winds will be sea-breeze
dominant.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)
For Memorial Day and Tuesday more of the same weather is expected
with deep-layer ridging in place, so expect above normal
temperatures and generally dry conditions to prevail. The high
pressure will gradually weaken and slight eastward as the week
progresses, bringing more dominant southeasterly winds, increasing
moisture, and gradually increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances.

MARINE...
A cold front has remained over the waters overnight and will stall
over the region today. This will lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms over the Atlantic, and waterspouts are possible due.
Locally higher winds and seas are also possible in and near any
convection. After today, dry conditions will prevail through the
holiday weekend. Wind direction will be northerly today, variable
Saturday, then generally southerly for the bulk of next week.
Speeds will be under 15 kt and seas will be 4 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values over Hendry and Glades counties will drop
to under 40 percent each afternoon today through Memorial Day
weekend.  However, winds are expected to be under 10 mph.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  85  75  92  75 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  86  78  92  77 /  10  20  10  10
Miami            92  78  93  77 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           90  74  91  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...22/KS
DISCUSSION...23/SK
MARINE...23/SK
AVIATION...33/Kelly
FIRE WEATHER...23/SK





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.