Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 050633
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY PERIODICALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT APF THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT APF.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA (CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME). /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  83  70 /   0  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  72  82  70 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            85  70  84  71 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  82  65 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD


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