Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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957
FXUS62 KMFL 110529
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1229 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.AVIATION...
Intermittent mainly light showers impacting Miami-Dade and Broward
terminals overnight, with at least scattered coverage expected to
continue across eastern terminals for duration of TAF period. This
could lead to a few periods of MVFR conditions, but in general VFR
conditions will prevail. ENE wind of 10-15 KT with gusts in
excess of 20 KT overnight through mid-morning Sunday, then winds
veer to the ESE and increase to 15-20 KT with gusts to near 30 KT.
Winds will finally begin a more substantial  decline Sunday
night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1037 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/

UPDATE...
As of 1035 PM EST...Quick update to the forecast to bump up PoPs
to likely range across southeastern portions of Miami-Dade county
for the rest of tonight based on current radar trends and high-res
model guidance. While much of the activity will be light in
nature, there will be the potential for moderate to brief heavy
showers mainly across the southern Miami suburbs into the
Homestead area, where some ponding of water on roadways will be
possible. Rest of forecast is in good shape through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 839 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/

UPDATE...
A frontal boundary over the Florida keys will remain nearly
stationary tonight, as high pressure to the north continues to
move east. This will keep the pressure gradient tight over South
Florida tonight leading to breezy northeast winds. These northeast
winds will also allow for the continuation of showers to develop
over the Atlantic waters and move southwest into the east coast
metro areas before dissipating over the interior areas. The best
coverage of the showers will be over the southeastern east coast
metro areas due to the closeness of the frontal boundary.
Therefore, pops will range from slight chance over Palm Beach
County to 40 to 50 percent over Miami-Dade metro areas.
The western areas of South Florida will remain dry tonight.

The high risk of rip currents will also continue tonight for the
east coast beaches of South Florida, due to the breezy northeast
winds. SCA conditions will also continue for all of South Florida
except for the Lake Okeechobee where an SCEC is in place.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon-Tonight: The heavier rainfall from earlier has
diminished this afternoon, leaving mostly light to moderate rain
along the east coast and Atlantic and sprinkles over the interior.
Weak low level boundary continues to oscillate across the region
providing focus for this activity. Overall, this will be the
pattern as we head into tonight under breezy east-northeast flow.

Models hint at a few ripples in the flow overnight that may help
enhance east coast rainfall, especially as winds just above the
surface veer more east-southeast and increase coastal convergence
along the weak low level boundary in place over the region. Will
have to monitor for additional heavy rainfall convergent bands
setting up along the east coast and potential for urban flooding,
especially if these occur where there has already been some heavy
rain.

Rain and clouds temper overnight lows which will drop into the
60s.

Sunday: Breezy conditions continue into Sunday as winds veer more
easterly. Low level boundary continues its northward move during
the day, shifting the best rain chances towards Palm Beach County
and Lake Okeechobee with time. It will be another day of scattered
to numerous showers over the Atlantic and along the east coast
with drizzle/light showers occasionally reaching into the interior
and the Gulf coast. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a concern,
especially near the boundary.

Daytime highs will moderate back to normal with highs ranging
from the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows remain very muggy
around 10 degrees above normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Next Week: South Florida will remain under the influence of weak
high pressure off to our north and east through mid week, with light
southeasterly flow. Low levels remain moist through the period, but
the near record level PWATs that are in place this weekend will drop
as the mid levels dry out. This relatively drier air will remain in
place even as the next frontal boundary arrives around Thursday with
little fanfare.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across the
region, mainly for the east coast metro. Temperatures will be near
to slightly above normal for mid-December.

MARINE...Tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the
southeast and quasi-stationary boundary across the FL Straits will
continue to bring gusty east-northeast winds and hazardous marine
conditions through the remainder of the weekend.

Wind speeds will generally be in the 20-25 knot range over
the local Gulf and Atlantic waters, including Biscayne Bay, with the
potential for occasional gale force gusts over the Atlantic. Rough
seas can also be expected through the weekend with seas of 7-10 feet
over the Atlantic and 5-7 feet in the offshore Gulf waters.

Surface high weakens and moves into the Atlantic early next week
allowing winds to ease as they veer southeast. Marine conditions
improve by late Monday with decreasing winds and seas.

BEACH FORECAST...Gusty northeast winds will lead to a High Risk of
rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through Sunday, with the risk
likely remaining elevated into Monday. The risk will begin to
decrease beginning late Monday and into Tuesday as the flow shifts
to the southeast and weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  69  84  70 /  40  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  71  83  72 /  50  30  30  30
Miami            79  71  83  73 /  50  30  20  30
Naples           80  67  83  68 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

UPDATE...92/IRL
DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...88/ALM






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