Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 301949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  70  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  70  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB


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