Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 271920
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
320 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
A fairly quiet weather pattern is in place for South Florida
through the week. High pressure remains in control through the
remainder of the week. The is currently to the northeast, but will
retrograde and setup over the Florida peninsula within the next
day or so. Until then, there will be a slight chance for a
coastal shower along the Atlantic coast. Otherwise, quiet weather
through Friday morning.
By Friday afternoon, the models begin to diverge. The ECMWF and
the GFS have a low pressure system that will move across the
midwest, and into the southern mid-Atlantic states by Saturday
morning. It will have an associated cold front that will stretch
south, across the northern Gulf waters. As it approaches the
Florida peninsula, the models disagree on how strong it will be.
The ECMWF has the front holding together into Central Florida,
then beginning to fall apart as it moves across South Florida,
bringing some showers to the region. The GFS has the front falling
apart before it reaches Central Florida, and stalls it out in the
lake region, possibly bringing a few showers to that area, but
keeping most of South Florida dry.
By Sunday, the models come back into agreement, and have high
pressure building back over the area, and bringing dry weather
back for the end of the weekend, and the beginning of next week.
With high pressure over the area through the week, marine
conditions will remain below any statement criteria. Seas are
forecast to run between 1 and 4 feet for most of the week, with
some 5 ft seas possible towards the end of the week in the Gulf
stream. Also with the high, the wind is forecast to be light
enough to keep the rip current risk at slight for the week.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. BKN cloud
decks are likely this afternoon, especially at APF as well as the
more inland east coast TAF sites. However, CIGs will remain above
030 all areas. Developing west coast sea breeze will cause winds
to back around to 270 at APF, but this may occur gradually
through 2000 UTC. Winds for all TAF sites will become 5 kts or
less overnight. These light winds will continue through late
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 66 80 66 83 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 68 79 69 82 / 20 10 0 0
Miami 68 80 68 84 / 20 10 10 0
Naples 64 81 64 82 / 10 0 0 0