Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 240522
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
122 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.AVIATION...Models show current isolated Atlantic SHRA increasing
in coverage around daybreak, a little slower than earlier runs
showed. Will push back mention of VCTS to between 11Z-13Z and
continue through remainder of forecast period for east coast
terminals. SCT activity over interior after 15Z, reaching KAPF
after 16Z. May see brief Gulf breeze at KAPF, but NE flow will
prevail. /ALM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

UPDATE...The showers and thunderstorms over the western areas of
South Florida late this afternoon have dissipated late this
evening. However, isolated showers have developed over the
Atlantic waters late this evening. The showers and even a few
thunderstorms will continue to develop over the Atlantic waters
through the overnight hours and move west/southwest towards the
east coast metro areas of South Florida. Therefore, the weather
will remain dry over most of South Florida tonight, except for the
east coast metro areas where a 20 to 30 percent pops will remain
in place.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...Tonight-Fri...water vapor satellite imagery and
radar data suggest deep moisture filtering into South Florida from
the Atlantic, with additional showers and thunderstorms still
possible tonight favoring the eastern half of the area. The
influence of an upper level ridge will likely keep hindering
potential for strong thunderstorms to develop as temps aloft
remain warmer than normal.

Sfc analysis show a cold front boundary just east of northern
Florida, with model solutions slowly pushing it southward and into
the state northwest corner during the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will keep building across the
mid Atlantic through the end of the work week with northeasterly
and easterly flow prevailing over South Florida. These synoptic
features will likely bring an increase in tropical moisture across
the area with model PWAT values showing two inches or higher.
Therefore, an increase in showers and thunderstorms is also
expected through Friday, including the nighttime periods. Coverage
will likely become widespread during the afternoon and early
evening hours through Friday.

For the upcoming weekend...two active tropical systems, tropical
depression Fiona amd tropical storm Gaston are still being
followed by the National Hurricane Center, with both systems
expected to remain well away from Florida. However, a third
system, a developing tropical wave located a few hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands, is currently drifting west-northwest
at 15 to 20 mph and is expected to approach the area of the
Bahamas during the next couple of days. This system will keep a
high level of uncertainty for the extended forecast, as it is too
early to determine if or how this system could influence our
weather in the Sat-Mon timeframe. The National Hurricane Center
gives this system a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 5 days. We recommend the public to
remain well informed regarding the progress of this system with
the latest products from the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service in Miami.

Rip current risk...the risk of rip currents is expected to remain
slight for Gulf and Atlantic beaches tonight and Wednesday, then
increasing to a moderate risk for the Atlantic beaches later in
the week as stronger easterly flow returns to the region.

MARINE...Northeast winds will build across the coastal waters
through Wednesday and expected to reach the 10 to 15 knot range by
Thursday, along with gradually increasing seas. Atlantic and Gulf
stream seas are forecast to be in the 2 to 4 foot range later in
the week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the extended winds and seas
forecast due to the uncertainty in the potential for tropical
cyclone development in the long range forecast during the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  92  81  92  80 /  50  40  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  90  81 /  40  40  50  50
Miami            92  80  92  80 /  50  50  50  50
Naples           93  77  92  77 /  60  20  60  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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