Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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101
FXUS62 KMFL 161747
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1247 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.AVIATION...
Northeasterly flow expected to turn northwesterly overnight.
Increasing cloud cover possible on Wednesday ahead of the front.
Showers should remain along the Atlantic coast but impacts to the
east coast terminals are currently too limited to include in this
issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1049 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018/

UPDATE...
Quiet morning weather-wise across South Florida. Temperatures have
warmed into the 60s and 70s with the forecast for this afternoon
on track. No additional updates are anticipated. Have a wonderful
Tuesday!

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Latest WPC surface analysis depicts a 1033 mb high settled over
the mid-Atlantic. Clockwise flow around this feature has been
responsible for the breezy north northeasterly winds experienced
this morning. Along the immediate east coast, winds have remained
sustained 10 to 20 mph with occasional higher gusts. This flow
pattern has allowed for a slightly deeper low level moisture
content and more mixing than 24-hours, keep minimums in upper 40s
west of Lake Okeechobee and lower 60s along the east coast metro
region. By this afternoon, north northeast flow will advect in
relatively dry air over the peninsula from the Atlantic with the
06Z GFS only showing between 0.50"-0.75" PWATs. Thus,
precipitation chances remain very low. On Wednesday, a deep trough
of low pressure will begin to push eastward over the
Appalachians. Mid range models prog an associated cold front,
draped southward from the center of this low pressure system, to
swiftly approach Florida. This front will be mainly dry, with
tropical moisture sill located too far south of our region. As
this feature crosses south Florida, winds will once again become
more northerly. Maximum temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon are forecast in the low to mid 70s, a couple degrees
lower than seasonal norms.

Wednesday night through Friday: After the passage of the front
late Wednesday, northerly winds will advect a dry and cool airmass
southward across our CWA. Good radiational cooling should allow
temperatures to fall into the mid 30s west of Lake Okeechobee, low
40s for the rest of the interior, and low 50s along the east
coast metro region. Northerly flow will continue through the day
Thursday, keeping temperatures from rising above the mid 60s,
some 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms. By Friday, lower
level flow will veer to the northeast. Northeast flow typically
acts to moderate temperatures and increase moisture.

This weekend: Both the GFS and ECMWF prog high pressure to slide
eastward over the Atlantic, acting to veer winds easterly across
South Florida. Shall this scenario play out, deeper moisture would
be allowed to slowly creep into our CWA and increase
precipitation chances. However, nearly a week out, confidence of
this particular pattern occurring is still only low to moderate.

MARINE...
Northeast winds will continue today, generally 15 to
20 KT with occasional gusts to 25 KT. Thus, hazardous boating
conditions will ensue, esepcailly over the Atlantic waters near
the Gulf Stream. However, these winds will weaken slightly by
late afternoon. Hazardous conditions are expected over all the
waters again for the latter half of the week as winds and seas
increase behind another front Wednesday afternoon and night.

BEACH FORECAST...
Through this afternoon, gusty northeasterly winds will bring a
high rip current risk along the Atlantic Beaches. Winds become
more northerly on Wednesday, possibly lowering the risk back down
to moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  58  71  49  63 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  59  73  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            61  75  52  66 /  10  10  10   0
Naples           53  68  41  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.

&&

AVIATION...02/RAG



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