Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271845
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY RADAR RETURNS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE FROM A LARGE WILDFIRE ACROSS CAPE SABLE. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

CRISTOBAL WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A WEEK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
TAIL END OF CRISTOBAL REMAINED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CRISTOBAL WILL BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...DRY AND WARM AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP
STORMS IN CHECK. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. SO BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTERIOR AND GULF COAST SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AND SAHARAN DUST POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. SO OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY EAST.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL MOISTURE. A TUTT LOW MAY MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME STRONGER STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A SCT CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. GUIDANCE KEEPS DELAYING THE ONSET OF A GULF BREEZE AT
KAPF. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL BUT STILL
PREVAILED A WEAK GULF BREEZE AFTER 21Z. MODELS STILL DEPICT DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TOMORROW AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PLACED VCSH IN
AT KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS OFF OF
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
AROUND 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  92  80  91 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  91 /  20  40  20  40
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           78  91  78  92 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD



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