Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 132353 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...AS DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS THAT COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE REMOVING
THE POPS OVER REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED
INTERIOR ON MON. ONLY ASSIGNED VCTS TO KAPF MON AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT OUT OF THE SE MON AFTERNOON EAST
COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

&&
.UPDATE..54/BNB
.AVIATION...GREGORIA


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING FEW DAYS THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH SEVERAL PULSES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING
THROUGH ITS BASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND WILL LEAD TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION
PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY WITH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SETTING UP OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS. THE
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AND INDICATES A WEST TO EAST PWAT GRADIENT
WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA MONDAY
AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY TUESDAY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW...DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW DRIVEN ACTIVITY EACH DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO DIP INTO
THE 8-8.5 DEG C RANGE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)

THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE EAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RETURN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST REGIONS.

30/KOB

AVIATION...

ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH ACTIVITY THUS FAR
IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA BUT REMAINING TO THE WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE FORECAST AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AFTER 18Z SHOULD START TO
SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED WITH TERMINAL KAPF
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 19Z. TERMINAL KAPF MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60/BD

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  88  78  90 /  20  20  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  81  90 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  75  90 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....85/AG



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