Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230701
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
201 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Friday. Low
pressure will move south and east of the area Friday into early
Saturday, followed by a dry cold front Saturday night. High
pressure will build in from the west Sunday and Monday and will
extend over the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Thursday...Mid level troughing continues across the
east coast with sfc high pressure building into the region from
the NW. A cool dry airmass will be in place but will see
abundant high clouds, associated with a low pressure area
pushing across the FL peninsula, lift across the region
bringing filtered sunshine. High expected in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Thursday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region tonight with the aforementioned low pressure area
passing well offshore. A few showers could move into the
southern or central coastal waters but most land areas will
remain dry with mainly high clouds prevailing. The exception
may be Downeast Carteret County as the GFS and ECMWF indicting a
few showers may push ashore here, however the high res models
keep the showers offshore and limit PoPs to slight chance. Lows
expected in the low/mid 30s inland to upper 30s/lower 40s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Thu...High pressure wl build in from the NW Fri.
Models cont trend of keeping better moisture offshore so only
have small pop over waters. Highs Fri in the 50s to near 60 and
lows Fri night upper 30s/lower 40s inland and mid 40s to around
50 beaches.

Weak low will lift NE offshore of the coast Sat as a cold front
approaches from the W. Again bulk of models mainly dry with
just small chc of shra over central and srn coastal waters.
Temps will moderate a bit Sat with highs mainly 60 to 65. The
cold front will cross Sat night...looks dry with very little
moisture assoc with fropa. Best CAA holds off til Sun with lows
ranging from around 40 inland to around 50 beaches.

High pres will build in from the W Sun and Mon then move offshore
Tue and Wed with dry weather. Wl be cool early with strong
warming by midweek. Highs Sun and Mon will be in the 50s. Lows
will be chilly Sun night and Mon night lower/mid 30s inland and
mostly 40s beaches. As the high slides offshore Tue and Wed WAA
will develop with highs Tue in the the low/mid 60s...warming to
mid/upr 60s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
short term. High pressure building into the region will keep
dry conditions in lower levels but a mid level shortwave
approaching will bring sct-bkn high clouds across rtes. N/NE
winds will generally be 10 kt or less.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 AM Thu...Mainly VFR expected through the period. High
pres with limited clouds Fri. Weak low moving NE offshore and
approaching cold front Sat will lead to more clouds but not
expecting much if any precip at taf sites. Dry cold front will
cross Sat night with high pres building in Sun and Mon leading
to mclr skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Thursday...High pressure building in from the NW is
bringing a N/NE surge around 10-20 kt with gusts to around 25
kt with seas around 6-8 ft northern/central waters and 4-6 ft
south. Conditions will be peaking over the next few hours
followed by gradually improving conditions through the morning.
N/NE winds generally 15 kt or less this afternoon through
around midnight, then could see some slight strengthening to
10-20 kt as gradients tighten with an area of low pressure
passing well offshore, strongest across the southern waters.
Seas will gradually subside this morning and expect to drop
below 6 ft northern and southern waters by noon and the central
waters by late this afternoon. Seas expected around 3-5 ft
tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 AM Thu...High pres will build in from the W Fri with NE
winds around 15 kts and 3 to 5 foot seas. Weak low pres will
lift NE offshore early Sat with a cold front approaching from
the W late. N to NW winds 5 to 15 kts early Sat will become more
W later in the day with seas 2 to 4 feet. The cold front will
cross Sat night with NNW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kts Sun
and seas building to 4 to 6 feet...highest outer central nrn
waters. As the high builds closer Mon N winds will diminish to
mainly less than 10 kts with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in
the aftn.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK


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