Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 211645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUND
COUNTIES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING ELSEWHERE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR FORECAST VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...DOWNSLOPING WNW/NW FLOW HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL TAF SITES ARE
NOW VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL
HINGE IF WINDS DECOUPLE. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD LEAVING FOG OUT
AT THIS TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING.


AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...NNW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING WELL INTO THE
20S ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 6-9 FEET. WINDS
CONTINUE TO  BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK






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