Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS...SKIES ARE
CLEAR. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP
WORDING AS MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC


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