Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 031516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
CURRENTLY RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO E NC. ALOFT...WAA OCCURRING WITH
STRENGTHENING 850MB WSW FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INC
FGEN ALOFT CAUSING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT. SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH
AND ONLY EXPECTING NEGLIGIBLE QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR SO.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AS
WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES. WILL SEE AN INC AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK AS DECENT INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY WHEN WAA IS FINALLY REALIZED
AT THE SFC...AS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN WEAK IN-SITU CAD REGIME
WITH NE TO E SFC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE QUITE
RAW...ESP INLAND WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S TODAY. BY EARLY
EVENING...TEMPS WARM INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUE...NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED AROUND 00Z...BEFORE INC WAA ON
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW CAUSES TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO RISE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND 60 DEGREES BY
DAYBREAK WED. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...
AND HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER AROUND 06Z AS ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN
WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF E NC. CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG FOR COASTAL AREAS AS SHELF WATERS ARE ONLY
IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND WITH RISING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE NIGHT THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST. WILL HAVE
TO REEVALUATE AND MENTION POSSIBLE THREAT IN GRIDS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SLIDES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WED IN DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZE AND ANY SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES. TRIGGERS ARE LACKING FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP BUT
CUD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OF DAY GIVEN ANY WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SW FLOW.

MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCD WITH THE INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT
LINES UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LATER WITH PRECIP ARRIVAL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH VERY LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT WARMER AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF DURING THU AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MOST OF
IT FALLS AS JUST A COLD RAIN THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. STILL
THINK THAT THE CHANCES FOR SEEING A BRIEF CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID
TO FROZEN ARE GOOD SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SLEET AND SNOW IN
THE FORECAST BEFORE ENDING BY LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IT
APPEARS AS ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP BUT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW OR
SLEET CUD RESULT IN SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS REMAIN RATHER MILD
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WED NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY OCCUR
EARLY THEN DROP RAPIDLY WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL CAA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES IN THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE 20S THU AND FRI NIGHTS WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY STRUGGLING TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AS THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, TRYING TO BRING SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE BACK UP THRU THE
SE STATES. PREFER TO AWAIT BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING ANY PRECIP INTO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...VFR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AS OBSERVED CLOUDS OVER SC ADVECT INTO E NC. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING CLOUDS AND OCNL
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED
VCSH MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR WILL
LOWER TO IFR AND THEN LIFR IN CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE AS A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DEVELOPS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT
IN DEVELOPING S/SW SFC FLOW AND REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO
IFR/LIFR IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LIKELY THRU EARLY WED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
WED NIGHT AND THU. GOOD CVRG OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE BNDRY
WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING LATE THU...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR
SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WED
NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN
TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING OCNL HIGHER
CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER DURING THE DAY
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INC TO 15-20 KT. SSW
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND
WILL BE IN THE SCA THRESHOLD FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
BY 00Z...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS AFTER AROUND 03Z. THINK THAT
COLDER WATERS OVER THE SOUNDS WILL PREVENT THE SW WIND FLOW FROM
MAKING IT TO THE SFC INITIALLY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW CRITERIA HERE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE OVER COLD WATER WILL PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISSUANCE OF A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10
FEET OUTER WTRS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO STRONG N WINDS INTO FRIDAY
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES LATE
FRIDAY WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JME
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME


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