Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 312009
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
409 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A FRONT OFFSHORE BACKS TOWARD THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO REMAIN DRY. MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND SFC CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY,
SHOULD IT OCCUR, IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEAT LOSS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN TONIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP THE SE COAST. SOME OF THE ASSOCD PRECIP MAY
ENCROACH ON SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF
PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH
LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS SFC BNDRY BACKS TO THE COAST IN
COMBINATION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE
MOIST DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL INGREDIENT OF DIURNAL
SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHUD
REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR EVEN HAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS. CLOUDS/PRECIP HOLDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH
PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF/WPC QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES. WITH MUCH OF
EASTERN NC HAVING RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH PLACES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CRYSTAL COAST
AREAS AT 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SO FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT DIURNAL CU ALSO DEVELOPING. PIECE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OFFSHORE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT.
ALSO SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPPER SW FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS (AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS) ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR BEYOND THE 24 TAF WINDOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE REGIME
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE 10-15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS OFFSHORE SFC FRONT BACKS UP TOWARD THE
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT E/SE ON FRIDAY CONTINUING AT 10-15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN FORM OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
15 KNOTS OR LESS...HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGESTING SLY WINDS
BRIEFLY SURGING TO AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...BTC/SK






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