Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301112
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS
MORNING LEADING TO A FEW PATCHES OF FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AT KPGV AND MVFR
ELSEWHERE. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TH DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN LATER
TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL


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