Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM




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