Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 282021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
421 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

A weak frontal boundary will lift back north this evening.
A stronger front will approach from the northwest Monday and
Tuesday, and stall along the coast through the end of the week.


As of 315 PM Sunday...Cluster of convection has developed along
and just north of the Albemarle Sound near surface low located
along the NC/VA border and weak convergence along frontal
boundary that is slowly moving north toward VA. Rest of the area
remains fairly well capped despite strong instability and
plentiful solar heating. Latest run of the 3km HRRR shows
additional convection to develop across the central and southern
CWA around 02z or so. Will forecast scattered PoPs with the
higher values inland through after midnight with precipitation
rapidly dissipating in the post- midnight hours. CAPE values at
or above 3000 J/kg and LI`s in the -5 to -6 range will continue
for the next few hours and any storms that are able to develop
in our inland areas could quickly become strong to severe. High
winds remain the primary threat given fairly high freezing
levels/wet- bulb zeroes heights this evening. Another mid-summer
night in terms of temperatures expected with lows in the
low/mid 70s over most areas.


As of 315 PM Sunday...In many ways, Monday will be a repeat of
today with a capping inversion keeping the convection at bay
until later in the afternoon or evening hours per latest 3km NAM
and GFS. The entire CWA remains in a Slight Risk of Severe
thunderstorms and would again expect strong gusty winds to be
the primary threat. Maintained PoPs in the 30-40 percent range
for Monday afternoon and evening. MOS numbers and 850
temperatures show that Memorial Day could be the warmest day of
the year so far for some spots, especially near the coast where
highs could approach 90 degrees with even mid/upper 80s over the
central and northern Outer Banks.


As of 415 PM Sunday...An unsettled pattern will be the rule
through the extended period as shortwaves/disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of shortwaves/frontal boundaries across area.

Monday night...Expect any afternoon or evening convection to
linger overnight as weak shortwaves move through WSW flow aloft.
There will also be a weak front approaching the area. GFS/ECMWF
forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE values of 500-1500 with deep
layer shear (0-6km) increasing to 40-45 knots, thus concern for
strong to severe storms remains. SPC continues to keep the area
in a Slight Risk of severe for their Day 2 Outlook. Kept PoPs
in 30 to 40 percent range overnight. Lows remaining muggy, 70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...A weak front is expected to stall across
or just northwest of the area Tuesday, and wash out across area
with additional short wave energy resulting in another period
of mainly diurnally driven showers and t-storms. Tuesday afternoon
convection could be similar to or exceed Monday`s activity,
mainly because of better moisture focused along the stalled
front and channeled shortwave/vorticity over the region
coincident with peak afternoon heating. More cloud cover and
lower thicknesses will keep max temps mainly in the 80s. Lows
Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. SPC has the
entire area under a marginal risk of severe for their Day 3
Outlook with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Thursday...Another weak front will sag southeast into
the region Wednesday, serving as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be more marginal than
previous Mon-Tues, thus while thunderstorms will be possible,
severe potential appears much more limited at this time. Latest
guidance suggests the front should move offshore late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, yielding lower PoPs to only slight
chance, and latter shifts may be able to remove PoPs for
Thursday. Low level thicknesses will build near 1400 meters
supporting max temps in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s along
the coast/OBX.

Friday-Sunday...Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks and
followed closely with blended guidance approach. Higher chance
PoPs for Friday with the front lifting back north, helping to
focus moisture over the area through the weekend. Max temps
generally in the mid 80s inland with low 80s along the coast,
and lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.


Short Term /through 18Z Monday/
As of 315 PM Sunday...Still anticipate mostly VFR conditions
through this TAF cycle. Some scattered convective activity
expected later this evening but some question as to the amount
of coverage, but think any reductions to ceilings and vsbys will
be short-lived. Gusty SW winds this afternoon will become W/WNW
and diminish by late tonight and Monday morning. Light mixing
should preclude most fog overnight.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/
As of 420 PM Sunday...Expect periods of sub-VFR aviation
conditions with convective activity each afternoon and evening
from Monday night through Wednesday. Less coverage for
Thursday as a weak front should move more offshore. Sub-VFR
will again be possible Friday afternoon/evening as showers and
thunderstorms will be possible.


Short Term /Tonight and Monday/
As of 320 PM Sunday...Winds are a bit gusty over the central and
southern waters and Pamlico Sound and will bump up winds to
15-20 knots through the evening before winds become more
westerly and drop off to 10-15 knots later tonight and Monday.
Per local NWPS/SWAN guidance, seas should remain in the 2 to 4
foot range through the forecast period.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/
As of 420 PM Sunday...The period will experience zonal flow
with weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into
the area. Specifics are difficult to forecast with regard to the
frontal location. Do not have much confidence to times that
occurs, except that by Thursday the front should push through at
least the northern waters for a brief period. The southern half
of waters will mainly see SW winds 5-15 knots during period but
northern waters will see some periods of shifting winds but
with speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some
periods of seas building to 4 feet for outer portions with
stronger SW winds around 15 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-3
feet during the extended period. NWPS and Wavewatch in good
agreement through the medium range, with Wavewatch appearing
reasonable for the extended seas forecast.




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