Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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971
FXUS62 KMHX 281835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY SO FAR...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS
STARTING TO POP UP S OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. STATIONARY FRONT CONTS
NEAR ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH STRONG HEATING TO THE S WITH LOW 80S
INLAND. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH MID/UPR 60S DEWPTS
PRODUCING SFC BASED CAPES AOA 2000 INLAND. THINK SEA BRZ MOVING
INLAND AND BNDRY TO THE N WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CVRG OF SHRA AND
STORMS REST OF THIS AFTN. THINK BEST CVRG WILL BE INLAND AND N
WHERE HAVE GOOD CHC TO LIKELY POPS. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION
EXPECTED SRN CST IN WAKE OF SEA BRZ. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB INLAND
AND MOD SHEAR A CPL STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSS ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND W OF HIGHWAY 17.

OVERNIGHT THE FRONT TO THE N WILL DRIFT S AND THIS COMBINED WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CONT GOOD CVRG OF
SHRA AND STORMS THRU THE EVENING. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY POPS
CNTRL AND N WITH CHC S THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP SHLD GRAD MOVE S
AND E LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NE TO LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL NOSE IN FROM THE N WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS WILL GRAD LIFT/ERODE
WITH PC TO MSUNNY SKIES FROM LATE MORN THRU THE AFTN. WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH NE WINDS....HIGHS MID 60S NE CST TO UPR 70S/LOW
80S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS IS MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS
GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL GENERALLY STICK TO
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS INDICATING A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODEL RUN IS NOW INDICATING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SO HAVE
HAD TO INTRODUCE 20-30% POPS BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING DEEPER
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY WHICH EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT STALLED
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY THEN WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS <
0.10". HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z MODEL RUN WAS INDICATING LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LEADING TO
FASTER NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE FRONT INITIALLY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH. THUS WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST
SAT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINS MAY SET
UP JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL COULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. EARLIER ONSET OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD
TO WARMER MAX TEMPS 75 TO 80 DEGREES DESPITE CLOUDS/PCPN. TEMPS
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER ABOVE...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
THIS PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER /PERHAPS MOST OF TUESDAY?/. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF A FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE DRIER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES TUE/TUE NIGHT WHILE THE
WETTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN RETURN NORTH WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS TO THE NW TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1230 PM THU...STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THRU THIS EVENING
WITH ANY SUB VFR ASSOC WITH PASSING CONVECTION. WHERE STORMS DO
CROSS GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY OVER REGION. LATER TONIGHT THE FRONT CURRENTLY
STALLED NEAR ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL DRIFT S AND EXPECT AREA OF IFR
STRATUS TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SPREADING S THRU THE TAFS 07Z TO 10Z.
THE STRATUS WILL LINGER THRU 12 TO 13Z THEN GRAD LIFT AND SCT OUT
TO VFR LATE MORN. VFR REST OF THE PERIOD WITH PC TO MCLR SKIES AS
HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WIT PERIODS OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...STALLED FRONT NEAR ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL DRIFT S
CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. SW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GRAD BECOME MORE N TO NE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORN MAINLY
AOB 10 KTS. LATER FRI AS HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE N...NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET THRU THE
PD...COULD BE A 5 FOOTER THIS EVENING OUTER CNTRL WTRS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT LEADS TO SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AND STRENGTHENS TO 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO E-SE
SUNDAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN 10-20 KT FROM S-SW MONDAY WITH THE
WAVE MODELS NOW INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 FOOT SEAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME



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