Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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668
FXUS62 KMHX 251116
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex low pressure system will continue to impact Eastern
North Carolina today then move northeast away from the region
tonight. High pressure in the central Atlantic will build in
Wednesday through the weekend bringing above normal temperatures
and below normal rain chances. A cold front will approach from
the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 715 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows sfc low around the
Pamlico Sound and Outer Banks, with the upper low along the
SC/NC coast. Low becomes vertically stacked today and lifts
across Eastern NC. Latest radar imagery shows widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall pushing through the NW CWA this
morning, pushing westward, and should clear the CWA in the next
hour or so. Flash Flood Watch continues through early this
morning for those counties, and dropped for southern counties.
Updated pops based on radar trends. While deepest moisture
slides off the coast early today, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms through the day as the stacked low tracks
overhead. Steep mid level lapse rates and cold temps aloft could
result in some small hail. Low level thickness values and 850mb
temps support highs in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Tue...Stacked low will lift off to the NNE
tonight, with shower chances tapering off. Think winds will stay
up overnight to inhibit fog development, but could see
increasing low stratus develop late. Mild overnight with lows in
the upper 50s/low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Surface high pres over the Atlantic combined
with ridging aloft will lead to warm and mainly dry weather
through the weekend. Increasingly moist airmass may lead to some
isold aftn and evening TSRA along the sea breeze inland from
time to time but most locations will see no rain. Highs on Wed
will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s then warm to 85 to 90 inland
and upper 70s to lower 80s beaches Thu through Mon. Lows will
be mostly in the 60s with some lower 70s closer to the coast. A
cold front will approach from the W Mon but looks like bulk of
the day will remain rain free.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 715 AM Tue...Widespread sub-VFR conditions currently
across the terminals ranging from LIFR to VFR, with rain
gradually tapering off this morning. Should see improving
conditions late morning becoming VFR. Scattered showers/iso
tstms late morning into the early evening. Forecast soundings
and guidance show low stratus developing late tonight and early
Wed morning, with the potential for IFR ceilings.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 230 AM Tue...VFR should dominate this period with warm SW
flow around offshore high pres. Isold late day tsra poss but
just a very small chc will see any sub VFR impact a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 715 AM Tue...Winds will continue to diminish this morning,
but dangerous seas will continue. Replaced gales with SCA. Latest
obs show S/SW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30 kt northern waters and
seas 7-16 ft. Winds S/SW 10-20kt this morning, with large seas
lingering today and tonight. Seas subsiding to 5-10 feet by
late afternoon, and 4-7 feet overnight.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Offshore high pres will lead to a prolonged
period of mainly SW flow this period. Speeds will avg 10 to 15
kts but may occasionally reach 15 to 20 kts espcly during the
aftn and early evening. Lingering swells will keep seas in the 5
to 7 foot range Wed then shld be 3 to 5 ft Thu into Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 715 AM Tue...Flash Flood Watch continues northwest
counties this morning. Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for
portions of Pitt/Beaufort/Martin counties. Precip will continue
to taper off early this morning, becoming more scattered with
widespread flooding threat ending. River Flood Warnings now
issued for all forecast points (except Williamston) and
Simpson.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 715 AM Tue...High surf advisory continues for beaches
north of Cape Lookout through today with surf heights 7 to 10
feet. Minor ocean overwash will be possible as well given large
waves/periods. Dropped CF advisory for soundside counties with
water levels now receding. High threat of rip currents at all
beaches today.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ044-079-
     080-091.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ130-
     131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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