Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240858
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
358 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift back north tonight. High pressure will
continue offshore over the weekend with continued very warm
temperatures. A cold front will move through the area Sunday
night into early Monday, followed by high pressure Tuesday into
Wednesday. Another system will impact the area late Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 am Sat... Latest sfc analysis is
showing cold wedge still persisting along the NE half of the
forecast area. This cold wedge will slowly erode away as the warm
front lifts north this morning leading to skies clearing briefly
before morning fog develops before the sun rises, especially along
the coastal plains. Low level clouds and fog will dissipate by mid
morning...leading to sct/bkn CU.

The return of warm SW flow as offshore high pressure dominates the
region. Hi-res models are showing isolated showers developing today
as an increase of moisture returns..therefore added 20% PoP along
the coastal areas, but otherwise think will be mostly dry. Expect
temperatures to increase into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees
inland and lower 70s along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As 3 am Sat...SSW winds will prevail as offshore high pressure
continues to dominate the region. Models show good agreement
with low clouds developing with possible fog. If winds remain
light overnight...this can preclude the development of fog.
Expect overnight temperatures in the upper 50s in the NE section
to low 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...A warm day on Sunday will be followed by
showers and possible a thunderstorms late Sunday and fairly
widespread rain Monday. After a couple of dry days Tuesday and
Wednesday, unsettled weather is expected for late next week as
strong low pressure impacts the area.

Sunday...Gusty southwest winds and high thickness values support
a very warm day for Sunday. Highs at some of the normally warmer
inland locations may push 85 degrees with mid 70s on the Outer
Banks. Some weak instability will be present during the
afternoon and given increasing moisture ahead of cold front,
will include a small chance of thunder with scattered showers
Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday night...The GFS and ECMWF continue
to show a wet period Sunday night and especially Monday across
eastern NC. QPF totals of one quarter to one half inch with
local amounts to one inch, especially inland and northern CWA
can be expected. We will be on the cold side of the boundary by
late Sunday night with maximum temperatures Monday only in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Have PoPs in the likely range Sunday night
and Monday, before rapid drying kicks in at or before midnight
Monday night as strong high pressure builds in from the
northwest.

Tuesday and Wednesday...With strong dry high pressure in
control, some cooler, though above normal temperatures, expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs both days will be in the low/mid
60s with lows in the low/mid 40s with lower 50s Outer Banks.

Wednesday night through Friday...A closed upper level low will
pull out of the Desert Southwest and move quickly east late next
week. Strong low pressure will develop and track across the
upper South into the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. The GFS is
much faster with this system and actually has the strong cold
front offshore by early Friday, while the much slower ECMWF
keeps Friday wet with the front not moving offshore until later
on Friday. With so much uncertainty this far out, will include
high chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night, with a chance
PoP for Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal for this
period.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 1 am Sat...High confidence of IFR/LIFR conditions will
persist through mid morning. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions have
developed over the area with as an increase of moisture
underneath the boundary layer. Conditions will slowly improve to
VFR by late morning with CU/SCU and SW winds around 10 KT this
afternoon.


Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...Most of Sunday should have VFR
conditions but periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely later on
Sunday through the day Monday as widespread showers occur and
perhaps a tstm or two Sunday evening. High pressure will bring
in drier air and VFR conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 330 am Sat... The latest buoy observations are showing
S/SW 5- 10 knots and seas around 4 ft. Gradient will tighten a
bit under a SSW flow reaching 15 knots this afternoon. The
gradient will continue to tighten with the approach of the cold
front, expect SW winds 15-20 kt tonight. Seas will mostly be 2-4
ft with 3-5 ft along the central waters.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...No major changes to the marine forecast
thinking this morning. With gusty SW winds of 15-25 knots Sunday
and Sunday night, expect seas to build to as high as 6 feet and
a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. Behind the front Monday,
NW/N winds of 10-15 knots and seas of 3-5 feet should prevail
through midweek.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 02/24 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         84/1962     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    76/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/1985     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    77/1996     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          84/1930     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     86/1982     (KNCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 02/25 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         80/2017     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    74/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/2017     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    76/2017     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          84/1930     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     78/2017     (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ130-135-150-152.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
CLIMATE...MHX


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