Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 092318
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
618 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF A FEW
SHOWERS LATE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
REGION. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS
UNTIL AROUND 03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER
06Z. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH AND 10 TO 20 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS
COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES
AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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