Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201903
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight
then stall and dissipate near the southern sections Thursday.
High pressure will extend into the area from the northwest
Friday through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to track
between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...Weak short wave aloft and assoc sfc
trof/front will approach from the NW thru the evening then move
into the region later tonight. Forcing and moisture look
limited and confined to mainly the srn tier so cont prev fcst of
slight pops srn sections overnight. Skies will avg out PC with
lows in the mid/upr 60s inland to lower 70s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...Sfc trof/front will stall and dissipate
near or just S of srn section Thu. Mdls differ on precip chcs
with GFS showing decent amount and NAM hardly any. Given
uncertainty made little change to prev fcst with low chc to
slight chc pops SW tier with no pop NE. Shld again see enuf sun
for highs to reach low/mid 80s inland...NE flow will keep nrn
cst cooler with highs around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure will extend across the region
from the north through the period, while we continue to monitor
Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track
of Maria late this weekend and next week. Eastern NC residents
and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest
official forecasts from NHC.

Thursday night through Sunday night...Surface high pressure and
upper ridge will continue to build in from the north through the
weekend, as Jose gradually weakens and meanders off the NE and
Mid-Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level
thickness values support temps near to slightly above normal
through the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Monday through Wednesday...Hurricane Maria is currently forecast
to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week.
Eventual track will be determined by several factors including
the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. It is
still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC,
which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast
it gets. The 12z GFS is slower and brings it slightly more
eastward than its previous run, while the 12z ECMWF is slightly
westward. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely this
weekend into next week, as large long period southeast swells
build. Gusty N/NW winds, minor coastal flooding, and ocean
overwash/erosion will be also possible.

Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC on Hurricane
Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...VFR expected to dominate much of the
period. Some wdly sct to sct shra poss overnight and Thu as
weak trf crosses but will not add to fcst given expected limited
cvrg. Any cigs are expected to be above 3000 ft. Late tonight
majority of guidance shows some patchy MVFR fog inland again
so added this to tafs between 08z and 12z.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thu/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...Weak sfc front/trf will move into the
region tonight then stall S of area Thu. Expect WSW winds 10 to
15 kts this evening ahead of trof to shift to NW later tonight
then mainly NE 5 to 10 kts Thu...may remain variable srn tier
with trf in area. Swells will cont...espcly over the central and
nrn wtrs with seas mostly 4 to 6 feet N of Ocracoke and 2 to 4
feet S. Will cont SCA nrn wtrs thru late tonight and central
waters thru Thu however will be close to subsiding below 6 feet
all wtrs for a period later Thu.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure will build in from the north
through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane
Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of
Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week, with latest 12z
GFS shifting slightly eastward and the ECMWF slightly westward.
Mariners and interested parties should continue to monitor the
latest official forecasts from NHC.

N/NE winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 5-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt
Sun. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas
lingering across the central waters through the entire period.
Will likely start seeing long period southeast swell build from
distant Hurricane Maria Thu night into early next week across
all the waters. Small craft seas likely to re-develop by Fri
evening and continue into next week, with double digit seas by
Sunday and Monday. Too soon to determine specific impacts from
Maria, but dangerous seas expected and strong N/NW winds will be
possible. Large SE swells expected to build, Wavewatch
currently showing swells 15-20 ft/15 seconds. Rough surf and
dangerous rip currents are likely.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD



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