Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 290311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH NO SIGNIF RAIN. DROPPED POPS AND WENT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT HIGHER POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPCLY DEEP INLAND
AS MDLS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING IN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
CLOUDS AND LIMITED CAA WILL LEAD TO MILD LOWS RANGING FROM UPR 40S
NW TO LOW/MID 50S S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS FORECAST AS WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CAA
IN NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WSW. A STRONG
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
MON NIGHT AND TUES AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER BY DEVELOPING STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION TUES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LATE TUES AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS TUES GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THEN WILL SEE
THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATE THURS AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. LOWS WED AND THURS IN THE UPR 20S INLAND TO 30S COASTAL
SECTIONS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD MIN TEMPS TO
THE 30S INLAND AND 40S COAST FRI.

12Z MODELS ONLY INDICATE SLIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF STATES.
ONSET OF PRECIP STILL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRI INTO SAT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC. WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AMPLIFIED IN THE MID LEVELS BUT REMAINS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ITS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
ITS PREVIOUS TREND OF DAMPENING THE MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WITH A WEAK
FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE
ECMWF HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEM AND THUS HAVE HEDGED
CLOSER TO A ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC. CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AS WAA/INCREASED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILD MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /033Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1010 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOIST
LOW LVLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO SPOTTY MVFR/IFR THRU 06Z
TO 08Z WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE AFTER THAT AS INVERSION DEVELOPS
POST FROPA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS WITH IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED
THRU MON MORN. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INLAND LATER MON BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE LOCKED IN WITH NNE LOW LVL FLOW...CONT IFR/LIFR THRU
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUN...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO MIDDAY
TUES BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND THURS THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...LOWERED INIT WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD OF FRONT THRU
LATE TONIGHT THEN EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACRSS NRN
TIER AS FRONT PUSHES THRU.

PREV DISC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT PICKING
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOT BY LATE EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE.

GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN MONDAY MORNING...HELPING WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRONT WILL STALL
EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE WEST NOSES INTO THE AREA...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...BRINGING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET BY
SUNSET. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT IS WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUES
ALLOWING N/NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THROUGH TUES EVENING.
SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-6 FT SOUTH TUES/TUES
NIGHT IN RESPONSE. HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND...THOUGH
IF TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THEN THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND MAY BE ADDED. CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE NAM SOLUTION TUES
INTO WED AS IT IS AN OUTLIER DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW OFF THE COAST
WITH WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUES. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY AND OFF THE
NC COAST FRIDAY. N WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT WED BECOMES WESTERLY
THURS. SEAS PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO 2-5 FT WED AND 1-3 FT THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/CGG/DAG











USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.