Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 301950
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak boundary will stall over the area this
morning and then lift back north by later tonight. A weak cool
front will approach from the northwest early next week then stall
near the area by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM Saturday, updated PoPs for the remainder of the
afternoon to add a large area of likely showers and thunderstorms
to reflect ongoing convection. Main threat from storms will
continue to be heavy rain with strong gusty winds approaching
severe strength in some storms. Areas outside of convection will
remain hot and humid with heat index values above 105, while areas
that get a shower or thunderstorm will cool below that for the
remainder of the day.
Expect a bit of a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity after
the current area pushes off to the north and east. There will
continue to be a threat for additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the overnight however and carried 40 PoP
overnight. No change from recent nights with warm and muggy lows
in the 75 to 80 degree range.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday, The weather on Sunday will continue to be
influenced from by a surface trough inland with weak shortwave
energy moving through at the mid- levels. Carried a 40 to 50 PoP
across the area for showers and thunderstorms that again could
produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. It will be another hot
and humid day with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and just a
bit cooler along the immediate coast. Heat index values could
again flirt with 105. This will largely be dependent on cloud
cover and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Did not have
enough confidence to raise a heat advisory at this point but can`t
rule out the need for tomorrow afternoon.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Unsettled through mid week as the
mid/upper ridge breaks down and transitions to a broad trough.
High pressure builds in late week.
Sunday night into Monday...Mid/Upper level ridge continues to
break down as the broad trough over the Tennessee Valley continues
to dig south. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary slowly sinks down
from the NW, but remains to the north for most of the day. This
will provide better chances for showers and thunderstorms to
develop, especially during the afternoon and evening. Expect highs
in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the OBX.
Monday night through Wednesday...The broad trough axis will be over
NC and the slow moving cold front will finally sink down into the
forecast area late Monday night. The front will be over eastern NC
Tuesday and finally push all the way on Tuesday night. The
frontal boundary will linger along the southern coastal area
Wednesday. Good coverage of convective activity expected ahead of
front, with likely POPS all of area Monday, eastern half Monday
night and southeast third Tuesday. Some locally heavy rain
possible with PW values around 2 inches, and isolated severe
possible with decent surface and mid level forcing. Did indicate
slightly slower frontal push into area on Tuesday, and lowered
POPs on Wednesday.
Not a major cool air push behind front and temps will actually just
drop back to near normal levels with highs near 90 and lows 70-75.
Thursday through Saturday...There remains some models
differences, but will keep previous forecast as the frontal
boundary remains stalled to the south of the area and dissipate
late Thursday/Friday as high pressure builds into the area from
the New England area.
Temps still near normal both days with lows 70-75 and highs near 90.
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short term /Through Sunday Afternoon/...
VFR conditions expected through the short term with a couple
exceptions. First, scattered convection may result in brief sub-
VFR conditions during the afternoon and evening hours. Second,
patchy fog could develop, especially in areas that receive rain.
Confidence for fog is low at this time so it is not included in
the TAF. Winds will be light from the south during the period with
a cumulus cloud deck around 5k ft.
Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/
As of 330 PM Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions are expected with
scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms through mid week as
an upper tough and frontal boundary is over the area. May see low
level stratus and/or fog each morning. SW flow 5-10 knots then
shifting to NE after the frontal passage late Tuesday night.
Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 215 PM Saturday, Outside of convection winds are generally
light this afternoon. As the weak boundary dissipates winds will
become more southerly to southwesterly across the entire area
overnight. Winds will be S/SW on all waters tonight and Sunday at
10 to 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. A few periods of 15-20 knot
winds will be possible at times through the period especially in
the outer central and southern waters.
Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...SW winds 10-20 knots will continue into
late Monday night as the frontal boundary moves in from the NW and
reaches the southern waters by late Tuesday night. SW winds will
shift to east on Tuesday and then by Tuesday night, winds become
north-northeast. Winds will become 5-15 knots after the frontal
Seas will mainly be 2-4 ft during the period, with some 5 feet seas
over the outer portions of central and southern waters with the
stronger SW winds. Expect showers and thunderstorms through the
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-