Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 262245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

High pressure will extend over the area from the north
tonight and move offshore Thursday. A cold front will move in
from the northwest Saturday and then stall off the coast Sunday
into next week.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
As of 645 PM Wed...Fcst on track and no changes needed.

Previous discussion...As of 320 PM Wednesday...surface high
pressure extending over area from north will produce fair
conditions with mostly clear skies, light winds and low
temperatures 66-70 inland and lower 70s coast. Strong
radiational cooling may result in some patchy light fog
development late tonight.


As of 320 PM Wednesday...models remain in good agreement that
weakening surface high will move offshore during the day. This
will result in return to more typical summer conditions with
winds becoming S-SW, dew points increasing to lower 70s and
highs near 90 inland. 12Z GFS has some light QPF indicated for
NW sections after 5 PM but other models remain dry and have kept
no POP forecast.


As of 330 PM Wednesday...High pressure will be offshore
Thursday night as another cold front approaches the area Friday
and cross Saturday bringing a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. The front will stall off the
coast over the weekend and remain through mid week.

Thursday night... High pressure will be offshore as a significant
shortwave digs down from the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley
with an attendant sfc low pressure beginning to move towards the Mid-
Atlantic states. Models continue to show few showers or
thunderstorms to develop across the northwest section of the
forecast area as upper level dynamics improve with a shortwave
energy cross the area. Expect overnight lows mainly in the mid 70s
inland to upper 70s coast.

Friday through Sunday...A significant shortwave/upper level low
drops down from the Great Lakes and forecasted to move across the
Mid-Atlantic region Friday and Saturday, while the surface low deeps
further over the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday night and drags it`s
associated cold front across Eastern NC Saturday.

There remains some uncertainty with the models as the GFS and NAM
shows impulse energy moving ahead of the main shortwave and cold
front during the day on Friday while the Euro doesn`t. Meanwhile
there will be decent amount of instability and increase shear (25-30
kts) while upper level dynamics is favorable... leading to support
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. SPC 3-day Outlook
currently has our area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.
The main threat are damaging winds and heavy rain that could lead to
minor flooding in areas with poor drainage.

There remains some timing differences with the crossing of the cold
front on Saturday, but once the cold front pushes through the area,
models continue to trend drier, keeping most of the precip along the
coastal half of the CWA both Saturday and Sunday as the frontal
boundary becomes stationary well off the coast.

Friday ahead of the front, expect highs in the lower 90s inland to
mid/upper 80s along the coast. Cooler behind the front Saturday with
highs in the mid 80s most areas except lower 80s across the OBX.
Lows expected in the 70s Friday night then mid to upper 60s inland
and low to mid 70s coast Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday...Models have a general agreement with high
pressure building in from the NW as the quasi-stationary front
remains offshore. Kept 20-30% PoP along the coastal half as weak
lows will move along the stationary boundary through Wednesday.
High generally expected in the mid 80s with lows in the mid/upper
60s inland and low to mid 70s along the coast.


Short Term /through Thursday Afternoon/...
As of 645 PM Wed...VFR conditions expected for most of the
period with the exception of some MVFR fog Thursday morning.
Tonight, skies will clear and winds are expected to become calm
and decouple. Strong radiational cooling conditions are then
expected, and this will lead to patchy fog development across
the region. Have visibilities 3-5 miles in the vicinity of HWY
17 and then to the west. Thinking that areas further inland
along the coastal plain have the best chance of seeing lower
visibilities than this, but given long lead time and lower
confidence, will keep these areas at 3-5 sm. Fog lifts quickly
after sunrise and skies will be mostly clear. Light S winds
expected by afternoon.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...A cold front will move into the region
Friday and Saturday which will bring showers and thunderstorms with
periods of sub-VFR conditions. Conditions will improve on Saturday
night with VFR conditions returning.


Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...high pressure extending over area from
north will weaken overnight and gradually move offshore
Thursday. NE winds 10-15 KT this evening will diminish below 10
KT overnight, becoming light/variable around sunrise with high
centered along coast. Winds will become SE-S in afternoon with
speeds increasing to 10-15 KT northern waters. Seas 3-4 feet
will subside to 2-3 feet overnight into Thursday.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 345 Tuesday... A cold front will approach the region from the
NW Friday with winds becoming SW around 10-15 kt Thursday night and
15-20 kt Friday and up to 25 knots by Friday night. Seas expected to
build to 3-5 ft Friday and 4-7 ft Friday night into Saturday. Models
differ some on the strength SW flow but there will be a good chance
of SCA conditions developing across portions of the waters sometime
Friday into Friday night. The front is forecasted to move across the
waters Saturday with a NW surge around 10-20 kt developing, then
shifting to N Saturday night and NE Sunday. Seas expected around 3-6
ft Saturday night and Sunday, highest across the northern waters. NE
winds will decrease slightly Monday to around 15 knots with seas
possible subsiding 3-5 ft.




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