Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301347
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 940 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AS PRECIP SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS MORNING.HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THUS SCAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. N-NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/DAG




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