Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 040642
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WELL- DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO
NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER LOW...SO WILL NOT
ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE RAIN CHANCES ONLY
20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES
THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF


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