Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TN AND NORTHERN AL/MS. SFC HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE. LINGERING
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...QUIET AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL...BUT
STILL THINK TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AS WINDS DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WERE TO
GO WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERED
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY.

LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST SAT-MON WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. UPR RIDGING AND SW WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN NICE WARM-UP FOR SUN AND MON...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 INLAND SECTIONS MON.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AREA LATE MON NIGHT...AND THAT MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL WITH OVER-RUNNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
MON NIGHT.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WITH ECMWF
INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT WITH MAIN SFC
HIGH CENTER MOVING OFF QUICKLY TO NE. STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST THAT
PERIOD GIVEN LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE PCPN
THREAT MAINLY NW AND OFFSHORE OF AREA...THUS KEPT POPS 20$.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

AFTER VERY COLD TEMPS SAT MORNING...MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING REST OF PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN AND MON...THEN A BIT OR A ROLLER COASTER TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER
AREA. SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH NE SFC FLOW LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 4-7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SCA
CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING
10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATE SW WINDS DEVELOPING AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. DID ADJUST
FCST FOR FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON NIGHT AND STRONGER NE WINDS
TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AS SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...CQD/JBM





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