Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221447 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD UNDER NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-
LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
UPSTREAM RIDGING TO MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GTLAKES. A QUIET PERIOD LIES AHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INVERSION WILL
PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT IN VERY SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS
AND WI RVR VALLEY.

SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO SRN WI TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...BUT ONCE AGAIN MIXINESS AT AND JUST BELOW THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER. FOR
NOW WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY LATE NIGHT FOG EXCEPT IN WI RVR
VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY SHIFTS
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST
INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS
TIME. THUS...JUST SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS AND LOW SPOTS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DECENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD DURING THE DAY...WITH COOL NIGHTS. ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS CONTINUING. ONSHORE
WINDS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.

MODELS THEN START TO DIFFER BY SUNDAY...AS GFS BRINGS 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT SUNDAY DRY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT SETTLED INTO SRN WI LATE SUNDAY ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING SOME MIXING AT AND ABOVE LATE NIGHT
INVERSION. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FOG AT
SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD LEVELS SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL HAVE ALLOWED WAVE HEIGHTS TO SETTLE BELOW 5
FEET BY EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE WL CANCEL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 09Z.

A QUIET PERIOD LIES AHEAD THIS WEEK...WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS
AND OCCASIONAL DAYTIME ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD


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