Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 241001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
401 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Persistent scattered showers over the Flathead and
Mission Valley overnight are slowly drifting south towards
Missoula, the Seeley/Swan, and Blackfoot areas of west central
Montana early this morning. This is a bit ahead of schedule, but
still very much in line with forecast thinking of the past few
days. As the larger, baggy trough deepens across the Northern
Rockies this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will become a
bit more numerous and widespread. And while a widespread wetting
rain is still not anticipated, the slow nature of these showers
and thunderstorms will permit them to produce localized brief
moderate rainfall that could amount to a quarter of an inch.

Models are still showing some dry air filtering into the trough on
Thursday, with showers remaining focused along the Canadian border
and then father south across SW Montana and central Idaho (Lemhi
County). Showers still seem to be less of a threat on Friday as
the flow opens up and the baggy trough ultimately moves east.
However, wouldn`t be surprised if a weak feature coupled with the
exiting jet stream leads to a few more showers across SW Montana
Friday afternoon.

High and low temperatures for the rest of this week will be
anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below normal. In fact, even colder
conditions are possible in narrow valleys as the baggy trough
develops should wind quickly calm overnight and clouds remain thin
or absent. A frost or freeze seem highly unlikely at this time,
though those living in the higher valleys (like Butte,
Philipsburg, Anaconda & Deer Lodge) may wish to keep a closer eye
on things the next few nights.

Warmer temperatures are still in store for the weekend as the
region transitions into southwesterly flow ahead of the next
system. This will cause most of north central Idaho and western
Montana to see highs back into the 80s for a time. That being
said, Saturday could see quite a breezy day. Given how dry and
warm conditions will be, this could exacerbate ongoing wildfire
suppression efforts.

Forecast models show the next weather disturbance, set to impact
the Northern Rockies late Sunday into Monday, as being a mostly-
dry system. This could spell another round of breezy winds with
very little precipitation. The exception to this may be extreme
northwest Montana near the Canadian border.


.AVIATION...Showers will remain in the vicinity of KGPI, KMSO, and
KBTM throughout the day. Breezy afternoon winds gusting 15 to 20
knots are also expected at these TAFs sites between 24/1900z and



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