Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 222018
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
218 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Showers will become more numerous this afternoon and
evening as a weak weather disturbance approaches the region. There
is enough atmospheric instability today that a few thunderstorms
will be possible, mainly through central Idaho and near the
Idaho/western Montana border. Precipitation should largely be on
the decrease after midnight tonight. Fog development will be
possible where precipitation falls this evening, however cloud
cover should keep coverage to a minimum.

A roughly 24 hour period of dry conditions is expected Thursday
into Friday morning. Temperatures will run a few degrees below
seasonal normals with some sunshine expected Thursday afternoon
and evening.

The next weather disturbance will begin to move cloud cover and
precipitation into the region Friday afternoon, lingering into
Saturday. Breezy southerly winds will develop Friday afternoon
ahead of this system. Roughly 0.25" to 0.50" of precipitation is
expected Friday evening into Saturday morning, with the bulk of
it falling across northwest Montana and central Idaho. Snow levels
will lower enough towards Saturday morning that a light dusting of
snow will be possible on high elevation passes, such as Lost
Trail and MacDonald Passes in southwest Montana.

Spring-like weather will continue into next week with brief
periods of dry conditions followed by weather disturbances
capable of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers will continue to form this afternoon
and evening. An isolated strike of lightning before sunset cannot
be ruled out, but atmospheric instability is limited, so most
showers will simply consist of brief-lived (15 minutes or so each)
moderate rain. The other item of note for aviators is a likely
repeat of morning fog at KGPI: The near-surface layer is almost
saturated, so after 23/0600z, fog will likely begin to form,
becoming thickest for a few hours around sunrise. Other sites are
less likely to form fog, as they have less saturated boundary
layers.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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