Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 020904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist
through the day today, with thunderstorm chances increasing
through the afternoon. Rain across northwest Montana will be
moderate at times, keeping the threat for rock and mud slides
going across Flathead County, especially in Glacier National Park.
Given the history of rock slides along Going to the Sun Road from
this type of rainfall, the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect
through later this morning to cover this concern.

Showers will be widespread through the evening hours across
central Idaho and western Montana, again with northwest Montana
receiving the heaviest and most persistent amounts. Showers are
likely to linger overnight tonight and into early Wednesday as

A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday
will continue the unsettled weather with another round of showers
and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon/evening
hours. The trough will drop southward down the West Coast Thursday
into Friday with gradual drying and warming across the region, but
enough residual moisture will remain for isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms. The primary concern with thunderstorms will
be brief heavy rain and dangerous lightning, while limited
instability will keep any severe potential very low.

Over the coming weekend into early next week, further warming is
expected with a daily chance of showers. Forecast models differ on
the amount of moisture that will be brought up from the Desert
Southwest, which will affect both the coverage and intensity of
the rain activity.


.AVIATION...Rainfall will be persistent across northwest Montana
through the day, impacting KGPI with intermittent lowered ceilings
and visibilities from heavier rain showers. This will persist for
most of the day into later this evening. Meanwhile, for KBTM,
KMSO, and KSMN, periods of rainfall and embedded thunder will
increase through the afternoon. These could result in temporary
reductions from heavier rainfall and lightning from thunderstorms.
Threats for each will diminish steadily overnight into Wednesday.


MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon MDT today Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...West Glacier Region.


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