Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 172102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM
THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT
WILLBE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS
THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW
LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18/10-12Z WHEN
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KOMA AND KLNK AFTER 10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH
18/18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH



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