Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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160
FXUS63 KOAX 242103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
303 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow will be ending and winds/blowing snow will be decreasing this
evening, so temperatures will be the main forecast concern into
Monday.

Fairly strong system moved through the area overnight and this
morning. 500 mb 12 hour height falls at 12Z were around 110 meters
at both KOAX and KTOP. Strongest jetstream level winds were down
across southern New Mexico and west Texas, but there was also a
jet max over the Great Lakes region, leading to a somewhat coupled
jet structure. Tight mid level thermal gradient at 850 mb and 700
mb will continue to move out of the area, and high pressure at
the surface should build in from the west. Axis of that high
pressure should extend from central and eastern South Dakota into
western Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday. Low clouds will decrease but
there is some question as to how much the mid and high clouds
will decrease. Will keep conditions at least partly cloudy tonight
after the evening precipitation ends. Previous low temperature
forecast seemed reasonable, with most lows in the teens but
ranging from around 10 above at the South Dakota border to near 20
at the Missouri border.

Surface winds will turn to the south or southwest on Saturday, but
warming is not expected to be all that significant. Have highs in
the upper 20s and lower 30s in the northern and central parts of the
forecast area and 35 to 40 far south. Westerly downsloping winds and
a decent amount of sunshine should push highs to the 30s north and
40s south for Sunday. The we should add about 4-6 degrees that for
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A mid tropospheric trough axis should extend from central Canada
back toward California at the start of this period, then progress
east to the Mississippi River valley region by Thursday. Model
agreement is not great on the details but there are enough signals
for us to include some mention of rain or snow (depending on surface
temperatures) for Monday night into Tuesday night. The 12Z ECMWF was
fairly bullish with rain and snow Tuesday, but for now it just
seemed too wet. We may see some water equivalent amounts from 0.10
to 0.25 based on the GFS.

Highs will be mainly in the 40s to mid 50s Tuesday through Friday
with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

IFR/LIFR very early in the TAF period at KOMA and KLNK due to
falling and blowing moderate snow. This snow will give way to
flurries and blowing snow for the rest of the afternoon. MVFR
conditions at KOFK will improve to VFR after 21Z and these
improving conditions will spread toward KLNK/KOMA in the 22-01Z
time period. Northwest wind 15-26kts and gusty. These strong
northwest winds will gradually decrease to under 15kts...then
under 12kts 00-04Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ015-
     033-034-043>045-050>053-065>067.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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