Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 221103
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
503 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surface observations this morning show a cold front is moving
through the Mid State with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s and
north to northwest winds. After highs around 60 on Tuesday, temps
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler today thanks to the cold
front and likely won`t reach 50 in most areas. Surface high
pressure ridge behind the front will settle over the area tonight,
and with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds a chilly
Turkey Day morning in the 20s is expected. Thankfully (pun
intended) temperatures will warm back up into the 50s by
Thanksgiving afternoon. Could also see some fog on area lakes and
rivers tomorrow morning due to the cold temperatures and still
warm water, but too uncertain on how widespread it will be to
include in forecast attm.

No precipitation is expected through Tuesday of next week as dry
northwest flow remains in place aloft. Kept forecast generally
near the superblend of all guidance which still appears
reasonable, although it is notable different from the GFS MOS
guidance especially next week. Warmer and above normal
temperatures are anticipated on Friday and Saturday ahead of the
next cold front that will move across Middle Tennessee on Saturday
night, with a return to near or even below normal temps for
Sunday and Monday behind the front. By Tuesday, flow aloft will
become more southwesterly as a deep trough develops in the western
CONUS, allowing for a significant warmup into midweek. Although
timing differences continue, 00Z GFS and ECMWF generally agree on
yet another cold front bringing a decent chance for rain on
Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Dry and breezy today. A band of low clouds may touch CSV this
morning but surface observations as of 11Z are showing scattered
ceilings. Gusty north winds during the daytime today.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........12



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