Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 092123
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
323 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...

IT`S A CLOUDY, COLD AND SNOWY WINTER`S DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE.
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, AND
WERE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WE`VE BEEN DEALING WITH SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT AVERAGE SNOW TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MID STATE, WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
LESS OVER MOST SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SNOWBURST NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS, HOWEVER, HAS CERTAINLY LED TO SOME HIGHER BULLS-EYE
AMOUNTS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SO FAR
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MOVES OUT
OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, WE COULD STILL PICK UP ANOTHER HALF TO ONE
INCH OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY NOON TOMORROW, AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF
RELATIVELY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO SET UP ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY, AND BLV MOS POPS ARE RUNNING TOO LOW
FOR THIS POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT(ESPECIALLY IF
THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ENDS UP AS DEEP AS MODELS INDICATE).
BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL STAND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE COLD
NATURE OF THIS PARTICULAR AIR MASS. SO HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
SOME MODERATION DOES TAKE PLACE AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH PULLS A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH,
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS DOWN ON US OVER THE WEEKEND,
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT, AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY GO BACK
INTO THE 30S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LIGHT
SNOWFALL, PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PULLS RAPIDLY EASTWARD
BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR SHUNTED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LINGERING WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD END BY TUESDAY.

FOR THOSE WHO DON`T LIKE ALL THIS COLD WEATHER, THERE IS REASON
FOR HOPE. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. MIGHT EVEN SEEN HIGHS GO BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THEN!
WOOO HOOO!

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS A NW FLOW ADVECTS COLDER AIR AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO
THE MID STATE. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LAST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON,
GRADUALLY LESSENING FROM NW TO SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      17  30  21  39  23 /  50   0  30  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    15  28  20  34  20 /  20   0  30  10  10
CROSSVILLE     13  23  14  34  17 /  50  20  30  10  10
COLUMBIA       14  32  20  42  23 /  20   0  30   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   15  32  20  42  23 /  20   0  30   0  10
WAVERLY        15  31  21  39  22 /  20   0  30   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-MACON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-SMITH-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BEDFORD-
CANNON-CHEATHAM-COFFEE-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-MONTGOMERY-RUTHERFORD-
STEWART-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19



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