Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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896
FXUS64 KOHX 232318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
518 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

As low pressure area pulls slowly off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
clouds have cleared over our southwestern counties today.
Temperatures have hung in the 40s today in the cloudy areas.
However, the fortunate ones in the southwest, where the sunshine
was plentiful, saw temperatures warm into the middle to upper
50s.

Since 1000-850mb layer is forecast to remain quite moist
overnight, believe areas that still have clouds at sunset will
likely keep them through sunrise. In addition, wouldn`t be
surprised to see some areas along the edge of the clearing fill
back in after the sun goes down. As a result, will keep skies
mostly cloudy overnight. Also, expect the Cumberland Plateau to
hold on to some patchy fog and drizzle this evening.

Still looks like nice weather for Tuesday, with skies becoming
mostly sunny and highs in the 50s. Winds should be light as a
narrow high pressure ridge moves across the area.

Models continue to show a cold front swinging into our area
Wednesday and Wednesday evening, bringing along an increase in
clouds and at least a small chance for showers, mainly southern
and eastern sections. With variable amounts of clouds forecast for
Wednesday, and morning lows only in the 40s, southerly winds
should be able to push temperatures into the lower or middle 60s
over the majority of the Mid-State. However, you better enjoy
those mild temperatures because we`ll be cooling off to more
seasonable levels as we head into late week and over the weekend.

An area of broken stratocu works its way southward in the cold air
Thursday and Thursday evening and brings a slight chance for a
wintry mix over our northeastern counties Thursday night.

Lows by sunrise Friday should be in the 20s area-wide--which might
be a shock to some folk`s systems, since we haven`t seen a low in
the 20s at Nashville since January 9th. In fact, the average
temperature at Nashville has been running some 10 degrees above
normal so far this month!

.LONG TERM...

Upper trough continues to deepen over the weekend and early next
week, and both the ECMWF and GFS show at least a small chance for
some wintry precip as we head through next Sunday and Sunday
night. Of course, that`s still a long way off and things could
change-- but it`s something to keep an eye on anyway.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly MVFR cigs behind yesterday`s system for Middle TN, however
the exception will be KCSV. Almost all of the hi-res guidance is
suggesting the current IFR vis at KCSV will get worse overnight
and last through 15Z -- even with a good breeze still going on. As
the winds relax a little around midnight, look for LIFR to VLIFR
conditions to settle in over KCSV.

Winds will continue to blow out of the NW for the next couple of
hours then relax after midnight. A little southeasterly breeze
will pick back up Tuesday afternoon as a weak surface ridge move
east of the region.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........Unger



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