Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 230450
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...CONVECTION MOVING SE`WD THROUGH KY HAS
SLIPPED ONTO THE TENNESSEE SIDE, SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN THE
NEAR- TERM AT CSV. LOOK FOR RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AT CKV AND CSV
GIVEN THAT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO 3-4 DEGREES ALREADY. AM GOING TO
LEAVE SHRA OUT OF THE TAF`S FOR TOMORROW EXCEPT AT CSV, WHERE
MOISTURE IS BEST AND POP`S ARE HIGHEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...TSTMS UP IN THE LOUISVILLE AREA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 25 MPH, PRODUCING SOME SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS, WHICH
COULD IMPACT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. NAM12
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING WOULD SEEM TO HAVE PEGGED THE KY
CONVECTION, AND THE ATTENDANT 1000-850MB MOISTURE CHANNEL, A BIT
BETTER THAN THE GFS, AND SAGS THE MOISTURE CHANNEL SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TN/KY BORDER LATER TONIGHT. FCST LATE NIGHT SOUNDINGS
BY THE NAM12 FOR OUR NORTHEAST SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, AND SINCE OLD OUTFLOWS FROM THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION
COULD PUSH INTO OUR NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT, WILL KEEP A 20% POP
RUNNING FOR THAT PART OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE, WILL STRIP OUT THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD FROM THE ZFP TEXT,
AND ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY (ALONG WITH THE OTHER DERIVATIVE
TEXT PRODUCTS).

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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