Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 270322 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...27/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move into
north central Oklahoma, likely impacting KPNC before the 06z
window opens. Additional scattered thunderstorms are possible
overnight, but confidence in timing and location are too low to
place in any TAF site. Sites that may be impacted would be in
northern Oklahoma, through the early morning hours. Winds will
generally be out of the south, increasing tomorrow, late in the
morning through the afternoon. Gusts over 20 kts are possible
across western Oklahoma. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds will
persist, increasing in coverage through tomorrow afternoon.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 929 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Increased the chance of showers/storms across far northeast
portions of north central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms continue across southeast/south central
Kansas this evening. These thunderstorms may clip far northeast
portions of north central Oklahoma--including parts of Kay, Noble
and perhaps Payne counties later this evening/tonight. Therefore,
opted to increase the chance of showers/storms--especially across
northeast Kay County--for this evening/tonight.

One mitigating factor is environmental conditions downstream are
not favorable downstream as elevated instability is limited.
Therefore, would expect severe weather risk to be minimal.

There is lower confidence for thunderstorms elsewhere; however,
weak ascent within the embedded northwest flow and any remnant
outflow boundaries may result in a few isolated showers/storms
across parts of north central/northwest Oklahoma later tonight.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

AVIATION...27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered to broken mid-level ceilings will persist through the
evening hours, dissipating overnight. Winds will generally be out
of the south and southeast, light, with calm to variable
conditions also possible. Winds will increase late Tuesday morning
through the afternoon, remaining out the south. At the same time,
scattered to broken cumulus is expected to develop, similar to
today.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate instability covers much of the western half of Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Without low-level convergence and without
significant vertical wind shear, if any storms form, they will not
be able to organize. The HRRRX shows isolated storms through the
evening over this area, and satellite imagery shows a large field
of cumulus clouds. However, the latest of the satellite images
does not show any significant cumulus growth, so it seems that low
or very low PoPs are justified for this evening.

As the surface high moves away, the pressure gradient tightens
tomorrow, which will strengthen the southerly low-level flow.
This, in turn, will help nudge temperatures upward over the next
several days...along with dewpoint temperatures.

Strong capping should prevent any significant precipitation until
a cold front moves into northern Oklahoma on Friday. Much higher
chances for rain will arrive with this front, and will continue
through the weekend. Since the front will not move much during
the weekend, it is possible that some locations may receive quite
substantial rainfall amounts.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  89  71  92 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         68  91  72  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  90  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           65  90  71  96 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     64  88  72  93 /  40  10  10   0
Durant OK         68  90  70  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/04/04



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