Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 011136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...
THEN PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE IT
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING
MAINLY RAIN BELOW 3000 FEET...AND THE SEASONS FIRST SNOW OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MANY PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE A SWATH OF COUNTIES STRETCHING FROM
SPARTA IN NW NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS GALAX AND WYTHEVILLE TO BLAND
AND BLUEFIELD IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON. THIS BASED
ON INCOMING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AND BANDS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BEFORE THINGS WARM LATER THIS MORNING. THUS
UPPED TOTALS IN THIS REGION TO BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES GIVEN
VARIATION IN TOTALS FROM ONE ELEVATION TO ANOTHER. OTRW FEW ADDED
CHANGES FOR NOW.

AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG 5H LOW NOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL QUICKLY
ZIP SE REACHING THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AND THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CURRENT BANDS OF PRECIP TO
PIVOT BACK TOWARD THE NW EARLY ON...BEFORE THE MAIN NORTHERN
DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP AND SINKS ACROSS NW NC AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN VA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SNOWFALL
TRICKY GIVEN NEEDED HIGHER RATES TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW PER
WARM GROUND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO KEEP PTYPE SNOW BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS FROM MID MORNING ON. CURRENT SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 2200-3000 FEET OVER THE
FAR WEST AND EXPECT MAY SEE SOME ADDED LOWERING ACROSS THE I-77
CORRIDOR AS A PIECE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. THIS MAY CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW AS FAR EAST AS
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY ESPCLY JUST NORTH OF I-81/HIGHWAY 460 BEFORE
DAYBREAK WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER QPF COULD EXIST EARLY. OTRW NOT
MAKING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TOTALS EXCEPT TO EDGE
ACCUMULATIONS EAST A BIT INTO WYTHE/BLAND/CARROLL AND MERCER CTYS
PER LATEST HRRR. ALSO WITH THE PRECIP SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST
CUT BACK ON RAIN CHANCES NE SECTIONS A BIT LONGER BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COMPLEX OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTS TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW CAUSES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO QUICKLY DEEPEN OFF NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT RACES NE AND PHASES WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR AN INCREASING NORTH/NW TRAJECTORY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL END POPS EAST WHILE KICKING IN AN
UPSLOPE REGIME WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BIT SLOWER JUMP IN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS GIVEN CLOUDS AROUND AND A
LAGGING GRADIENT UNTIL RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER BEST
SUBSIDENCE/PRES RISES LOOK TO SYNC UP WITH A FINAL TRAILING VORT AND
THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS TO PERHAPS RESULT IN A STRONGER NOCTURNAL
SURGE IN WINDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER GIVEN MORE OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
EXCLUDING FANCY GAP...MAY STAY VERY GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ADDING IN THE SECOND PERIOD FOR NOW. LEFT
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS WEST TODAY WHERE EXPECT ONLY SLOW
RISES WITH SOME REMAINING IN THE 30S. APPEARS MAY GET CLOSE TO 50
EAST BUT EVEN THERE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW COULD HOLD MOST IN THE 40S.

OTRW DECENT UPSLOPE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
HIGHER WESTERN SLOPES...WITH DOWNSLOPE CLEARING OUT EAST TONIGHT
AND SOME SNOW SHOWER BANDING EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE PER
SOUNDINGS. THUS WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM LIKELY/CAT POPS
UPSLOPE AREAS TO DRY IN THE EAST. FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN OF SOME
CONCERN IN THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES BUT GIVEN
MIXING THINK THE WARMER MET MOS BETTER. THUS KEEPING MOST ABOVE
FREEZING EAST WITH 20S TO AROUND 30 WEST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY OFF WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING CAPE COD. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR AREA IN THE 9MB TO 10MB RANGE DURING LATE MORNING...SUPPORTING
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHER
RIDGES INCLUDING THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...REACHING 40 MPH AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
THROUGH LUNCHTIME ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS OUR
AREA. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HOLDING STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
STRONG...ALLOWING OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. MOST AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS. FOR
THOSE FEW LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED YET IN
THE FAR EAST...THIS WILL FINISH IT.

MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMUP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY...CARRYING WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...WHICH WILL ALLOW
MONDAY HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW/MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL
OF WEATHER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL TO THE
NORTH...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A WEAK AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT.
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE SIMILAR TO SEVERAL RECENT ONES IN THE
LAST HALF OF OCTOBER...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER POSSIBLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS OR NOTHING
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY IN
OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR
PARTS OF THAT AREA...WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS RUNNING FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS. THE LONG TERM FORECAST DOES NOT SEEM
TO OFFER MUCH HOPE TO CHANGE THAT SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM LIFR/MVFR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING TO MOSTLY VFR ALONG THE KLYH-KDAN
CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHTER. EXPECT IFR TO LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY IN THE KBLF TO KTNB REGION WHERE PTYPE
SHOULD REMAIN SNOW WHILE CAUSING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. LOWER
IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT KBCB AND KROA AS ONGOING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR AT KLYH...AND
MVFR AT KDAN OR WORSE AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPING
CAUSING CIGS TO RISE TO VFR IN THE EAST WHILE THE RIDGES STAY
STUCK IN NO BETTER THAN MVFR. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KBCB/KLWB. MORE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KLWB/KBLF WITH CIGS
STAYING AT MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW.

NORTH TO NW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ESPCLY MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AND PERHAPS 30-40 KTS TONIGHT ESPCLY IN
THE KBLF-KBCB TO KROA VICINITY OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS COULD OCCUR BUT MAINLY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AROUND KDAN WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE EXITING
LOW EARLY THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. VFR EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK THOUGH A FRONT ARRIVES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS LIMITED IN MOISTURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ010-012-
     016.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ002.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PC
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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