Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 221930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Friday)...
High pressure will continue to build into the area through Friday
with some drier air moving in and suppressing rain chances, 30-40
percent for early tonight and 20-30 percent on Friday. Light winds
will pick up from the SE later Friday morning and then the sea
breeze will take over during the afternoon shifting winds to
onshore near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
70s inland and mid to upper 70s coastal. Highs Friday will
generally be in the lower 90s, with some upper 80s at the beaches.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday night-Thursday)...
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula Friday night
through Sunday.  On Monday and Tuesday, a strong U/L disturbance
will push across the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley with an
associated U/L trough digging along the eastern seaboard and Florida
peninsula.  As the trough lifts northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Wednesday and Thursday, an U/L ridge will build back over the
southeast U.S. and Florida.

At the surface, the persistent area of high pressure over the
western Atlantic with a ridge axis across the Florida peninsula will
hold over the region Saturday...but will begin to slide east of the
forecast area on Sunday.  Atmosphere will remain conditionally
unstable and daytime heating will allow scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to develop Saturday and Sunday with the best areal
coverage over the interior where the collision of the east/west
coast sea breeze boundaries is expected.  Thunderstorm activity will
gradually dissipate during the evening hours.

Lower heights combined with an approaching frontal boundary will aid
destabilization on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Moisture
pooled south of the boundary will also allow PCPW values to increase
to AOA 2 inches which will create the risk for locally heavy rain.
Transition day on Thursday as high pressure surface and aloft begins
to build back over the forecast area with large scale subsidence
gradually increasing...and pops lowering a bit. However, scattered
afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop with highest pops
along the coastal counties south of Tampa Bay in region of best
available deep layer moisture and L/L convergence along the west
coast sea breeze boundary. Temperatures will run a few to several
degrees above climatic normals over the weekend, then return back to
near normal early next week due to the increasing cloud cover.


VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals this afternoon with
southeast winds between 8-10kt shifing to onshore at the coastal
TAF sites. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, with best convective
development over the northern terminals, will be possible between
19z-02z which may temporarily bring MVFR/local IFR conditions.
Winds subside tonight then increase to 8-10kt after daybreak
tomorrow under the prevailing southeast flow.


High pressure will build across the coastal waters from the Atlantic
through Saturday keeping generally SE winds in place with an
afternoon sea breeze developing near the coast. For Sunday through
Tuesday, the high pressure ridge will get pushed off to the south
and east as a trough settles just north of the state and washes out,
with high pressure to the north bridging across the remnant boundary
by the end of the period. This will turn winds more to the E/NE for
early next week with afternoon sea breezes dominating the flow.
Scattered thunderstorms can be expected each day. No headlines are
anticipated through the period.


No concerns as relative humidities will remain above 35 percent
and winds and ERC values below critical thresholds.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  92  78  90 /  40  10  20  30
FMY  75  93  76  92 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  74  93  76  93 /  20  20  10  40
SRQ  76  92  77  91 /  30  10  20  30
BKV  72  92  73  91 /  40  10  10  40
SPG  78  90  80  90 /  30  10  20  30


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.