Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260657
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CUBA NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HIGH
RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SIMILIAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
MOVE WESTWARD. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE
MERGING OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THIS AREA WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE STRONGEST AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A
STAGNANT AND UNCHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARM AS WELL RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAKER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT RATHER LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT...ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO NOT BE AS BAD WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOME WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND THUS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOVE TO INLAND AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE TAF TERMINALS SAW SOME SORT OF IMPACTS
YESTERDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
TERMINALS SAW BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IMPACTS WITH
THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE CLEARED UP AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR
TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS STARTING BETWEEN 18-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  91  71 /  50  40  20  10
FMY  92  72  92  70 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  92  71  91  69 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  91  72  90  70 /  50  30  30  20
BKV  92  69  90  67 /  50  20  20  10
SPG  91  75  89  73 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


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