Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281922
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH DURING SUNDAY TO ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST TO
THE LOWER 50S FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE SOME...ALBEIT STILL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA MONDAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING WITH SHOWERS POPPING
UP DURING THE HEATING. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY
BY 12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
PRECEDING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 20S OVER INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW THE CRITICAL 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH
THAT NO RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. ON MONDAY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER INLAND AREAS. BY TUESDAY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH SO THAT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  49  71  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  47  72  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  49  72  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  39  70  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  55  69  59  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL


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