Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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877
FXUS62 KTBW 241311
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
911 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
An upper level low moving onshore along the Florida Treasure coast
this morning will drift west-southwest across the southern
peninsula through the afternoon and then into the Gulf of Mexico
tonight. Drier and cooler mid and upper level air associated with
this low is spilling into the forecast area this morning as noted
on 12Z raob data and water vapor imagery. Ample moisture in the
lower levels combined with daytime heating will again support
another round of sea breeze and outflow boundary driven showers
and storms across the region during the afternoon, with the best
coverage of storms likely to set up to the south of the I-4
corridor from mid afternoon on where the best moisture and
boundary interactions will reside, with slightly lower rain
chances further north. With the cooler and drier aloft some strong
storms will be possible with strong downburst winds and or hail.
Similar to yesterday a weak southeast steering flow will again
favor slow moving storms with some locally heavy rainfall amounts
likely, along with frequent deadly lightning strikes as the storms
drift to the west and northwest. Current forecast is in good
shape with no morning update required at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at all terminals through 16Z this morning. After
16Z developing shra/tsra may bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions and
have handled with VCTS for now, but may need to include brief
tempo groups in later forecasts or amendments. Outside of the
convection VFR will prevail. Southeast winds in the 4 to 6 knot
range this morning will become southwest to west at 7 to 10 knots
at all coastal terminals after 17Z as the sea breeze develops,
except remaining southeast at KLAL. Gusts up to 40 knots will be
possible in the vicinity of tsra. VFR with light and variable
winds will return to all sites after 02Z tonight as the shra/tsra
end.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west
northwest across the northern peninsula will maintain a light
southeast to southerly wind flow along with slight seas over the
Gulf waters the remainder of today, with a weak pressure pattern
favoring a onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast
during the afternoon. Winds and seas will be higher in the
vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected.
Ongoing forecast has a good handle on things with no changes
expected in the next forecast issuance around 10 AM this morning.

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis



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