Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 241922
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
222 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
Ridging aloft will remain in place across the region through tonight
and Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the
souther Gulf of Mexico/Yucatan peninsula region will continue to
shift toward Florida tonight and then just east of the state by the
end of Wednesday. As this happens and the low off the New England
coast continues to move farther away, the pressure gradient will
continue to relax, with light and variable winds expected tonight.
This, along with clear skies, will likely lead to some patchy fog
developing overnight into early Wednesday morning. Any fog that does
form should lift within and hour or two of sunrise, and the rest of
the day will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with highs rising into
the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Tuesday)...
Period will begin with high amplitude U/L pattern across the CONUS
with a positively tilted L/W trough from the Great Lakes to the
desert southwest. A strong subtropical U/L ridge will be located
over the Caribbean and Florida Straits.
On Thursday, an U/L disturbance will shear out and lift northeast
across the Great Lakes. This will act to suppress the sub tropical
ridge further south with broad troughing developing over the Florida
peninsula. Quasi-zonal flow will develop across the southern tier
of the U.S. and Florida.
Upstream, a strong U/L ridge will develop over the western U.S. on
Friday while another U/L disturbance will drop down the backside of
the ridge toward the four corners area. The building west coast
ridge will nudge the L/W trough a bit further east extending from
the Great Lakes to the southern Plains with quasi zonal southern
stream flow across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
A southern stream disturbance will move across the Gulf of Mexico
and Florida Saturday night through Sunday night...while a northern
stream disturbance digs over the mid/lower Mississippi valleys. This
will be the start of an overall U/L pattern change as another rex
block develops over the eastern Pacific early next week. The U/L
trough along the eastern seaboard will rotate out across the western
Atlantic Monday and Tuesday as another northern stream disturbance
drops in across the northern/central plains and midwest.
At the surface...high pressure east of Florida will hold over the
forecast area Wednesday night but will exit the area on Thursday. A
cold front will push southeast across the Florida peninsula on
Thursday, however there will be very little in the way of return
moisture and U/L support will remain well north of the region...so
only a slight chance of a shower as the front pushes across the area.
The front will stall across south Florida on Friday with colder
drier air advecting across west central and southwest Florida in the
wake of the front. The southern stream disturbance will override
the frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night with
overrunning rain/showers developing over the central Gulf spreading
east over the Florida peninsula late Saturday night and Sunday. The
U/L disturbance and associated rain will push east of Florida on
Monday with high pressure building back over the forecast area with
drier cooler air advecting back over the region.
VFR conditions are expected through the first part of tonight.
Thereafter, fog will be the main concern into the early morning
hours, with KLAL, KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW having the best chances at
experiencing IFR or worse visibility restrictions in fog. For the
other sites, will leave high- end MVFR or VFR conditions in the
forecast for now as confidence for these locations is not as high.
VFR should return to all sites by 14Z.
High pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will
slowly move over the Florida peninsula tomorrow morning and then east
of the state. A frontal boundary will then approach the region on
Thursday, with a few showers possible. Winds for Friday into Saturday
will be more out of the northwest or north. Winds look to remain
around 15 knots or less with seas 4 feet or less, so no headlines are
anticipated at this time.
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Some patchy fog is possible early Wednesday
morning, but widespread significant visibility restrictions are not
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 57 75 65 78 / 0 10 10 20
FMY 56 77 63 82 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 52 78 60 80 / 0 0 10 20
SRQ 55 75 63 77 / 0 10 10 20
BKV 46 76 59 79 / 0 10 10 20
SPG 60 74 65 78 / 0 10 10 20
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby