Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
816 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

High pressure of late supporting unseasonably warm and muggy
late October weather will continue to move slowly east into
the Atlantic the remainder of tonight as an upper level
trough and the first significant cold front of the season
moves east into the lower Mississippi valley. Increasing
moisture (PW 1.74 inches via 00z raob data) within a deep
layered southeast wind flow ahead of the trough and front
supported some isolated showers across the area during the
afternoon and evening, and a few additional showers can`t be
ruled out the remainder of the night within the warm sector
as indicated by the latest Hi-res HRRR, but overall coverage
and rainfall amounts should be limited and very light.
Considerable cloudiness streaming in from the Gulf will
support mostly cloudy skies with very mild temperatures with
overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 70s.
Current forecast is in good shape so an evening update
will not be required at this time.

On Monday the aforementioned upper level trough and cold
front will approach from the west with increasing chances
for showers and storms across the region, first along
coastal areas toward sunrise, with the convection then
spreading inland through the day as low level convergence
and lift associated with the trough and front increases
across the region. It will remain unseasonably warm and
humid on Monday with southerly winds in the 10 to 15 mph
range with temperatures climbing into the lower and middle
80s. Rain chances will remain elevated Monday night into the
first half of Tuesday as the cold front moves south through
the region. Much cooler and drier air will advect into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday on a breezy northwest to
northerly wind flow as high pressure builds in over the
Gulf and southeastern states in the wake of the front with
cooler and drier weather continuing through Thursday.


Mainly VFR is expected during the next 24 hours. Southeast
winds in the 6 to 8 knot range the rest of tonight will
increase to around 10 knots after 15Z on Monday, becoming
south to southwest at 12 to 15 knots after 18Z. Developing
shra/tsra may bring brief MVFR conditions to the terminals
after 15Z and have handled with VCSH/VCTS for now, but brief
tempo groups may become necessary in later forecasts.


Southeast winds will increase to cautionary levels (15-20
knots) over the offshore waters after midnight as the
gradient tightens some ahead of the cold front, and will
maintain exercise caution headlines across these waters.
Closer to shore southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
can be expected. On Monday southeast winds in the morning
will become south to southwest as the first significant cold
front of the season approaches from the west. Ample
moisture and lift associated with the front will support
scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the
waters through the day. Winds will shift to the northwest
and north late Monday night into Tuesday as the front moves
south through the waters with speeds approaching small craft
levels over the offshore waters during Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ongoing forecast has a good handle on things with
no changes expected in the next forecast issuance around 9


Gulf waters...None.


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