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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301640
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND IN MOST PLACES. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING AT 15KFT AND
ABOVE...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME BREAKS HERE AND THERE
THRU THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. A VERY
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PREVENT PRECIP OVER ANY PART OF EASTERN
OK UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. GOING HIGHS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MAIN TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS
TODAY WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON OBS TRENDS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   55  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   53  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   53  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30