


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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670 FXUS64 KTSA 150100 CCA AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tulsa OK 800 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Potential for locally heavy rainfall exists thru Tuesday morning in association with an MCV tracking across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. A Flood Watch is in effect thru 10 AM Tuesday morning. - Rain/storm chances become more spotty and diurnally driven by Tuesday, with the best coverage remaining again in the east and south during the afternoon. - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring chances for storms for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night. - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will likely persist thru the weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Visible satellite imagery shows a well defined MCV spinning over Atoka County, OK as of this writing. Showers and thunderstorms have developed on the northeast/east side of the center, and are moving northeastward across Pushmataha and Choctaw counties. Rainfall rates have jumped up between 1-2 inches per hour in the heaviest part of the rain shield. Trends in the most recent runs of the HRRR show the MCV (and moderate to heavy rain) continuing to shift northeastward into Le Flore/Sequoyah counties in OK through mid- evening and eventually across most of west-central and northwest AR after midnight tonight. Rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches will be likely, especially on the eastern fringes of the MCV, with local amounts around 3-4 inches possible in spots through daybreak tomorrow morning. Flooding/flash flooding will remain the biggest concern across far southeast OK and most of west- central/northwest AR this evening and overnight tonight. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this general area until 15z/10AM Tuesday morning. Currently, there are a few spotty showers lingering across northeast OK and far northwest AR. These should fade away by or just after sunset this evening and these locations are expected to remain mostly dry through the night. However, patchy fog may develop again for these areas after midnight tonight. Made some quick adjustments to the PoP/Wx grids to better reflect current trends through 12z/7AM tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast through tonight remains on track. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Afternoon through Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The MCV/low is expected to depart to the northeast by mid-morning Tuesday. In its wake, rain/storm coverage will be more isolated to widely scattered and during afternoon peak heating in the east and south, and most activity is expected to die off by evening. The next focus for storms will be a front that will approach but likely not move into the forecast area Thursday. Low storm chances will be maintained near the Kansas and Missouri borders. Ridging is expected to build in aloft by the end of the week, with the latest data suggesting this will persist thru the weekend and into the first part of next week. Rain/storm chances go down, and the heat will go up. By the weekend, afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105F will be common. Heat headlines may be required. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A MCV currently lifting into southeast Oklahoma will make its way northeast through the CWA overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low are forecast to move across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Will continue Tempo groups for timing of greater precip potential for KMLC/KFSM/KFYV/KXNA/KROG. Within the precip, MVFR conditions and heavy rainfall are possible. Otherwise, scattered to broken mid and high clouds should remain common for the CWA tonight. During the day Tuesday, any lingering MVFR conditions should lift back to VFR by late morning/early afternoon with mid and high clouds again forecast Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours, though for now will hold off on mentioning due to uncertainty of coverage/location. Winds start out variable tonight and become southerly Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 92 76 93 / 0 10 0 10 FSM 73 91 75 94 / 40 20 10 10 MLC 71 91 74 93 / 20 20 0 10 BVO 70 92 73 94 / 0 10 0 10 FYV 70 88 72 91 / 30 20 10 20 BYV 69 88 72 92 / 40 30 10 20 MKO 72 90 74 91 / 20 10 10 10 MIO 71 90 74 92 / 20 10 0 10 F10 71 91 74 91 / 10 10 0 10 HHW 71 89 72 91 / 40 30 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-069-072- 074>076. AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...20