Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE OK / NW AR SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS W/ A CONTINUAL DECAY THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
AGAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING / EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH FLIGHT
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  30  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  40  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07




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