Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 282001
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDER LINGERS ACROSS NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM. THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO IMPACT EASTERN OK FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW..SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY FLIP FLOPPED POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LONG AWAITED AIRMASS CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE
HOLD. THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EARLY
PART OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW. UPPER SYSTEM THAT
HAD CLEARED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER MODEST
RIDGING THAT TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PERIODS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME DURING THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND RETURNS...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN LOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  65  75 /  70  70  70  50
FSM   67  78  66  79 /  50  70  50  70
MLC   67  79  66  75 /  70  70  50  70
BVO   66  81  63  73 /  70  70  70  40
FYV   64  76  62  73 /  50  70  50  70
BYV   66  77  63  73 /  50  70  50  70
MKO   65  79  64  74 /  60  70  70  60
MIO   65  78  61  73 /  60  70  70  60
F10   67  80  65  73 /  70  70  70  50
HHW   68  78  66  79 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23





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