Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241019
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The primary focus for much of the upcoming forecast period will
continue to center around fire weather concerns. Southerly flow will
increase today out ahead of a weak cold front moving through later
this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture will be in short
supply, and with dry fuels in place and gusty winds developing by
later this morning...fire concerns remain a primary concern this
afternoon. Temperatures will not help fire weather conditions since
much of the forecast area could see afternoon highs topping out in
the low to mid 70s...about 15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Greatest fire concerns look to be generally along and north of
Interstate 44 where winds could gust to 25 mph and relative humidity
values near 30 percent. Portions of northwest Arkansas will also see
heightened fire concerns this afternoon.

The cold front will near the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border late
this evening with cooler air filtering in behind the front. Not a
big push of cold air with this front, so we will see temperatures
quickly rebound Saturday and Sunday. Overall, a rather pleasant
November weekend to travel back home after all the Thanksgiving
festivities.

Decent ridging and tightening pressure gradient over the Plains will
allow for rather strong winds of 30 to 35 mph to develop Monday
afternoon. Low-level moisture will be slow to return with eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas seeing relative humidity dropping into
the 30 percent range before gradually moistening through the
evening. This will create another potentially dangerous fire weather
day.

The next chance for precipitation will be tied to a trough and
attendant cold front Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid- to long-range
models still not agreeing on the timing and overall strength and
position of the trough...and this could impact how much, if any,
rain we might see. Given the lack of moisture this month and the
developing drought conditions, any rain this last week would be
welcome.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  47  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  47  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75  44  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   69  45  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  47  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   72  46  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  46  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  46  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   72  46  70  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....11


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