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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211723
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CEILINGS WILL BE RATHER ERRATIC OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER THE INITIAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING NORTH OF  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...IF A STORM CAN
BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10