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000
FXUS64 KTSA 071203
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG AT KBVO LIFTING BY 15Z. MID LEVEL CLOUD GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CIGS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD
NOT LIKELY TO REACH KBVO KTUL KRVS BY 12Z SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING POST
FRONTAL...A COLD AND WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OK NEAREST THE OK/KS BORDER HOWEVER FORECAST SFC TEMPS MAKE THIS
CHANCE MARGINAL AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AXIS SPREADING OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON BOTH THESE DAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE REMAINS A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE OK / WESTERN AR ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...HOWEVER THE
BULK OF THE DATA KEEP THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW
IT APPEARS THAT SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIP. A SHARP COOL DOWN WILL AGAIN FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARM UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  38  40  29 /   0  10  90  10
FSM   64  41  54  36 /   0   0  60  40
MLC   63  44  49  31 /   0   0  60  20
BVO   64  35  38  25 /   0  20  90  10
FYV   62  37  51  27 /   0   0  80  50
BYV   61  37  51  29 /   0  10  80  60
MKO   63  40  45  30 /   0  10  80  30
MIO   63  36  41  27 /   0  10  80  20
F10   63  41  42  30 /   0  10  80  10
HHW   62  44  54  35 /   0   0  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21