Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 290441
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1141 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weakening, southern portion of KS MCS tracking across nern OK
resulting in 40 mph wind gusts. Activity moving across BVO ending
around beginning of TAF time. Some instability remains ahead of this
activity in nern OK but confidence not high that it reaches nwrn AR
sites before dissipating. Some light fog expected at sites where
rainfall occurred today and yesterday. Another round of scattered
diurnal convection expected across ern OK/nwrn AR Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 932 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms from this afternoon/early evening have
mostly dissipated at this time, and attention turns to complex of
storms south of Wichita. These storms have had a history of
damaging wind in the Wichita area, however both radar and IR
satellite trends indicate weakening over the past hour as as
somewhat more stable airmass resides over northeast OK. Meso
analysis does show an axis of relatively high MUCAPE over extreme
northeast OK into northwest AR so some chance that storms could
build more eastward overnight, but this is not certain. Did updatethe
forecast earlier for higher precip chances across northeast OK
after 03z, but at this time think the overall severe weather
threat will be limited.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
AVIATION...69



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