Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 010445
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There
remains a low chance of some fog towards sunrise at KFYV and KBVO,
but the chances are too low to mention in the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 757 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

Current forecast appears to be on track. A few slight changes to
sky cover and near term temperatures. Guidance does suggest some
light fog developing across far NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas by
early tomorrow morning. With dewpoints about 10 degrees higher
this evening than yesterday evening, and with overnight lows
forecast to be just a few degrees higher than this morning, would
not be surprised to see some fog development.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period. There is the potential for some fog late tonight and
early Saturday morning, especially at KFYV amd KBVO, but the
chances are too low to include in the TAF`s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface ridge position along with the continuation of low
dewpoints will result in yet another cool night across the region.
Not expecting lows quite as chilly as seen this morning...although
have gone at or a bit below the lowest guidance numbers. Ohio
Valley upper low will finally lift northeast...allowing for weak
southerly flow to develop by Sunday. Overall...the weekend is
looking fine with near seasonal temps for Saturday and a bit above
average by Sunday.

Strengthening southerly flow will eventually draw back improved
low-level moisture through the area by Tuesday into Wednesday.
This is ahead of a longwave trof that will be pushing into the
Rockies and Plains by mid-week. Still some timing differences
noted among the extended models...and consensus suggests
Wednesday/Wednesday night as the best timeframe for
showers/storms. Most of this activity will transition east by
Thursday...with cooler/drier weather shaping up for the end of
next week and into the weekend.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05


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