Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1129 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/IFR cigs expected to persist through the and into much
of Tuesday. Could see a few showers and storms develop
overnight across western Arkansas..but confidence is too low
to include a mention in the TAF. Thunderstorm chances should
increase later Tuesday afternoon...especially across western
Arkansas. A cold front along with additional thunderstorms
will swing through the area just beyond the scope of this
TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 948 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers have recently re-developed near the Red River
north of diffuse warm front, which still appears to be across
north Texas per latest obs. 00z soundings showed modest elevated
instability being transported north by low level jet, and thus
will continue to see isolated to scattered development possible
overnight. Temps have more or less bottomed out for the night,
and will likely rise at least a few degrees in many areas by
morning. Surface dew point depressions near zero over much of SC
and parts of SE OK with reduced vis reported in many areas and
with continued advection of higher dew points north tonight, will
likely see fog spread north into more of the area, especially
across eastern OK. AT this point do not anticipate widespread
significant reduction to visibility. Updated forecast will be out
momentarily.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 529 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of MVFR cigs likely at all TAF sites overnight. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms possible as well...especially
for the northwest AR sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will overspread the area
tonight and Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will likely be
reached early this evening, with steady or rising temperatures
later tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
overnight into early Tuesday, especially from southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas, and at least some small hail may
accompany the strongest storms.

The better chances of severe weather will come late Tuesday
afternoon in the far eastern part of the forecast area and again
later Tuesday evening to the southeast of Interstate 44 as the
cold front moves across the area. Any storm that can get going
late Tuesday afternoon will have the potential to produce all
modes of severe weather, with damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado the main risk with the later storms along the
cold front. Fire danger will also become elevated Tuesday
afternoon across parts of northeast Oklahoma where gusty south
winds and unseasonably warm temperatures will combine with
lowering late day humidity values.

Dry and mild weather will then prevail through the rest of the
week into the weekend, with temperatures warming back to well
above the seasonal normals over the weekend. The next cold front
looks to arrive late Sunday night or Monday morning, but current
indications suggest that it may come through dry.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  80  42  60 /  10  10  20   0
FSM   56  77  52  64 /  40  30  40   0
MLC   61  78  46  62 /  30  20  30   0
BVO   54  79  40  60 /  10  10  20   0
FYV   55  73  45  56 /  30  30  40   0
BYV   55  75  47  56 /  30  50  40   0
MKO   58  77  44  62 /  20  20  30   0
MIO   57  76  42  58 /  10  20  30   0
F10   59  79  44  61 /  20  10  20   0
HHW   59  77  50  64 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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