Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 230841
SWOD48
SPC AC 230841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
CNTRL STATES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE
MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY BY TUESDAY /DAY 6/.
INITIALLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NWD FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN INTO THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION.  DETAILS
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL
U.S. REMAIN UNCLEAR...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...WILL ACT TO ENHANCE BOTH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN
THE FORM OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
PREDICTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

..SMITH.. 10/23/2014



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