Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 240901
SWOD48
SPC AC 240900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE THIS
FEATURE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY/DAY 4. AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
MAINTAIN A 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY CONTOUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FORECAST THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/DAY 5. IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX WHERE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A COUPLE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROBABLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES
ON SUNDAY. WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ADEQUATE...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY/DAY 7 AND
TUESDAY/DAY 8...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BUT KEEP
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S WITH A
DRYLINE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD MAKE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH FROM SATURDAY/DAY 5 TO TUESDAY/DAY 8 TO
NOT DRAW A THREAT AREA.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2016



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