Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 310729
SWOD48
SPC AC 310728

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE D4-D8 PERIOD UNDER A WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE ERN TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LIFT NEWD ON MON/D5...WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S F
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINLY A RAIN THREAT.

MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND
WED/D7 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THEN DEVELOPING EWD IN A LOW-AMPLITUDE
FASHION INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THU/D8. WHILE SOME WIND THREAT COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY SUCH A DISTURBANCE...PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 07/31/2014



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