Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 240844
SWOD48
SPC AC 240844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WRN U.S.
TROUGHING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ BUT DIFFER QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
EPISODIC STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
EJECTING SMALLER-SCALE SPEED MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE LARGER-SCALE WRN
U.S. TROUGH ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY /DAY 4-5/.  ISOLD SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY /DAY 4/ AND THEN PERHAPS OVER A MORE
EXPANSIVE AREA ON TUESDAY /DAY 5/...ADDITIONALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF SEVERE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE QUALITY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS/MID MO VALLEYS DESPITE MODEL VARIABILITY.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE EVOLUTION
OF AN E PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIABILITY RANGING FROM AN OPEN TROUGH TO A SLOWER CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION OVER THE SWRN U.S.  AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
FOR SEVERE EXISTS BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
GIVEN MODEL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
U.S. TROUGH EVENTUALLY INFLUENCING CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CNTRL U.S.

..SMITH.. 05/24/2013
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