Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 240901
SWOD48
SPC AC 240900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING D3/SAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH D5/MON.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON D4/SUN...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE AID OF
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES. A
SWATH OF STRONG 700-500 MB WLYS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO MID-ATLANTIC. WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DEEPENING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO MID-SOUTH.

WITH AN EML PLUME POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION
WOULD FAVOR A BROAD AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ON SAT INTO
EARLY SUN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXTENSIVE. THIS MAY HAVE
DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON TOTAL BUOYANCY AND RENDERS THE NEED FOR
GREATER MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY TO HIGHLIGHT 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER
PROBABILITIES.

...SOUTHEAST ON D5/MON....
WITH LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN PRIOR DAYS...AT
LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
MON AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD. 700-500 MB WLYS SHOULD
BE WEAKENING AS THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH THE BULK OF STRONGER FLOW LIKELY LAGGING
THE FRONT. STILL...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR AT
LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 07/24/2014



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