Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 230835
SWOD48
SPC AC 230834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN U.S. AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR SHORT WAVES DIGGING INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS BEFORE EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  ONE
CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS AND THE AMOUNT OF TSTM ACTIVITY EACH IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE.  DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE VARIABILITY IN REGARDS TO
OUTFLOW AND OVERTURNING OF AIR MASSES DECREASE PREDICTABILITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE...DESPITE THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS PROVIDE THIS EVENING.  DEEP TROPICAL PLUME FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LEAD TO SCT-NUMEROUS
CONVECTION...HOWEVER INSTABILITY ISSUES COULD VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
EACH DAY AND FOR THIS REASON 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015



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