858
FXUS63 KDDC 100504
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1204 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through midday Saturday.

- The next round of needed rainfall and embedded thunder is
  expected Saturday night and Sunday. Rainfall amounts of up to
  one half inch are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Infrared satellite imagery at 8 pm showed remaining midlevel
clouds dissipating with the setting sun, and surface
observations confirmed a pleasant evening with light north to
northeast winds. Rising surface pressures are expected
overnight, as surface ridging builds southward, which will allow
strong radiational cooling and another cool sunrise well down
into the 40s Friday morning.

1026-1027 mb high pressure will be centered over the Colorado
Front Range Friday morning, providing light north winds. North
winds will remain light through the day, and models again show
little change in temperature Friday, delivering a splendid
spring afternoon in the 70s.

No hazards or impacts, and no forecast changes needed this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Dry conditions are expected throughout the short term period. High
clouds look to envelop western Kansas after midnight tonight and
tomorrow night but should dissipate after sunrise. Winds will
generally be from a northerly direction through tomorrow, then
shift to the south by sunrise Saturday as lee troughing develops
across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows will
generally be in the 40s with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak
ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead
to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. An upper level low will
spin above the four corners region through Saturday then trek
eastward over the area Sunday into the first part of next week.
As this low gets closer, weak disturbances may swing into the
area bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas.
Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Ensembles show
probabilities of over a 50 percent chance of a quarter of an
inch or more across the eastern half of the CWA Saturday night
through Monday morning. Temperatures throughout the long term
will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and
Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the first part of
next week. Lows will start out in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Near 100% probability of VFR flight category for all terminals
during the time period. A band of mid level clouds will lower
ceilings to around 15 kft through the overnight and mid morning
hours. Winds in general will be 5-12 kts sustained with a few
gusts as high as 15 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro