Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240409
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1209 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

NO BIG STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A WARM ADVECTION WING OF PRECIP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO GRAZE THE NW FORECAST AREA THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
BEFORE RAINS ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING WITH MAIN BATCH OF RAIN GONE
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS EAST. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM
EDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES. RUN TO
RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS STILL NOT GOOD INDICATING ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
SPREAD TO ALLOW FOR UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OR ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER
MICHIGAN BRING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR WET SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES...KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IT SEEMS AND GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER
THIS FORECAST PERIOD MORE INTO THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY
MORNING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
VEERING WEST ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
BE APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS TODAY. EVART WILL LIKELY BE
THE LONE ADVISORY BEYOND 24 HOURS. A CANCELLATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR SCOTTVILLE BY SOMETIME THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CROTON DAM
OPERATIONS HAVE DROPPED LEVELS BELOW ADVISORY STAGE...WHICH WILL
SOON BE CANCELED.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF AN
INCH. LESSER TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO
CREATE ANY CONCERN. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY WARRANT WATCHING FOR
RAINFALL AND COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...OSTUNO






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