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000
FXUS63 KGRR 162334
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THE REST OF THIS
WEEK... WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY FOR EASTER SUNDAY. OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. SOME RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
EASTER ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE STORM TRACKING BY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DRY AIR WITH SFC DEW PTS OF 15-25. THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD REALLY LIMIT OUR PRECIP CHANCES... ALTHOUGH A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD CLIP THE LUDINGTON AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THAT WILL HELP
SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S.

AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS LWR MI. A BRIEF FLARE UP IN RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ALONG THE FRONT AS A MID LEVEL
WAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER MODELS KEEP MOST OF
THE PRECIP LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR WITH LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY
THAN ON THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS  BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM SUNDAY
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
CANADA AND THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL
NOT MOVE SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE MONDAY... RESULTING
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR LEVELS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW VEERS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EVART RIVER LEVELS REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY WHILE SCOTTVILLE AND
CROTON HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. THE ONLY
OTHER WARNING OF NOTE IS MOUNT PLEASANT WHICH IS EXPERIENCING MINOR
FLOODING. THERES BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SHEER NUMBER OF THE SEVERAL
REMAINING ADVISORIES STILL OUT.

THERE IS A BIG POSITIVE HERE. RIVER LEVELS HAVE EITHER ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CRESTS OR ARE CURRENTLY DOING SO...INCLUDING EVART.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A QUICK SPRINKLE MAY MIX IN WITH A FLURRY OR
TWO NORTH OF MUSKEGON TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. THEN LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NOT HAVING ANY REAL IMPACT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...63/JAM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM