Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 230351
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS TIMING
OF PRECIP AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SHOWERS TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY DESPITE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND THE LOW APPEARS TO OCCLUDE AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE WARM
SECTOR MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL
MENTION THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S UP
NORTH AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH DECENT
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z
GFS GUIDANCE. IT IS NOTED THOUGH THAT LARGER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH
OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN EVEN COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THINKING THESE WILL ERODE WITH TIME. HAVE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS IN
AT GRR AND LAN OVERNIGHT JUST ABOVE MVFR AT 3500FT.

OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH BASES ABOVE
20000FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO A MID DECK ABOVE 10000FT
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SCOTTVILLE...CROTON AND EVART. CURRENT
DOWNWARD TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SCOTTVILLE WILL DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CROTON AND EVART MAY LAST
ANOTHER FEW DAYS PENDING RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TOTALS LOOK DECENT...AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH COULD SLOW RECENT PROGRESS ON
THE RIVERS IF WE REACH THE HIGHER END. GIVEN THE TIME ALLOTTED FOR
RIVERS TO RECEDE THIS NEXT EVENT MAY JUST BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE WEEK PANS OUT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM






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