Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRR 272352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE WINTER ISN`T QUITE DONE WITH WEST MICHIGAN YET.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY PUTTING DOWN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S MODELS VIS A VIS
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO
NOON ACROSS THE CWA RATHER THAN EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOOKED AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND THEN
MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES PLUS MONTCALM MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EVEN
THERE THOUGH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 40 LATE IN THE DAY THE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS A
COMPACT BUT FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN BUT LIFT FROM
THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...TONIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 0 OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THAT MEANS THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY THEN CLIMB TO NEAR
60 BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WE EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS OCCURS DURING THE LING TERM. A
COMPACT LITTLE CLIPPER IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CWA. THEN
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

A BIGGER STORM WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AFFECT
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WE/LL LIKELY SEE RAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF M-46 BUT THAT/S NOT CERTAIN YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH AND DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.