Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 211148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THE BULK OF THE TIME. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEK WARMING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO BE CONCERNED WITH WEATHER WISE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDS. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST
TODAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLARE...TO IONIA TO
BATTLE CREEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS U.S. 127. DELTA T/S WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND -1C
OVER LAKE HURON.

REGARDING CLOUDS WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DELTA T/S OF AT LEAST 10 DEGREE C OFF
OF LAKE HURON THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NAM12 RH PROGS IN THE
950-900MB LAYER BEAR THIS OUT. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TRYING TO TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE EAST MAY HANG ON TO CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME OFF OF LAKE HURON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT DAY AND
WARMER 850MB TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO AS MUCH AS
FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MILDEST WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA WITH SOME IFR SPRINKLED IN AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL THE IFR CEILINGS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT FOG WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 15Z. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OCCURRING AND EVEN
A TREND TOWARD VFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KMKG. A NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH THE EVENING AT KLAN AND
KJXN. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECT AT ALL SITES FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CAVEAT THOUGH IS THE FACT THAT A
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND MAY TRY TO GENERATE MVFR CEILINGS OFF OF LAKE
HURON RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...KLAN AND KJXN WOULD BE MOST
IMPACTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AT 10-15 KNOTS...TURNING
EAST AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM ST. JOE TO MANISTEE INTO
TONIGHT. WE SHORTENED THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO 06Z...AND
IT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY AT THE MID EVENING UPDATE.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN
SPOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NOT
THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK...WITH THE SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
TURNING MORE OFF SHORE WITH TIME. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING TRY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS OUT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS THIS WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALL WITHIN BANK AND
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE






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