Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 251928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DEFLECT THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
EVENT SOUTH OF MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
JACKSON AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE EVENT TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT IS THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
EVENT THAT SHOULD...FOR THE MOST PART... STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. JACKSON COUNTY COULD SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AROUND SUNRISE BUT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS IN COLDEST AIR SINCE THE 4TH THROUGH
THE 6TH OF MARCH (BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES). MY 1000/925 MB
THICKNESS TOOL TELLS ME HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 20S FRIDAY
EVEN IF IT WERE SUNNY. WITH NORTH WINDS THROUGH I DO NOT SEE MUCH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...EVEN SO I DID PUT LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. WE/LL STILL FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
THEN CARRY THROUGH TO MID WEEK WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE HIGHS
CLOSE TO 60.


TYPICAL OF QUASI ZONAL FLOW...WE/LL SEE A RAPID SUCCESSION OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ONE OF THESE MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE HIGHS NEAR 60S WEDNESDAY...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISBYS SHOULD INCREASE ABV 6SM THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER MVFR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. IFR IN THE EAST WILL
INCREASE TO MVFR. LATEST NEPH ANALYSIS SHOWS IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXTENDING WELL WEST INTO WISCONSIN AND AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF TONIGHT WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE CIGS BELOW VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FALLING RIVER LEVELS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART LEVELED OFF DUE TO
THE RAIN FROM THIS MORNING. RIVER LEVELS MAY CREEP BACK UP... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BELOW BANK FULL. FLOODING IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS WEEK...
SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63






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