Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 280715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and
Sunday. Some of the storms on Sunday could have small hail and
strong gusty winds. Memorial Day should be fair with lower


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Moist southerly flow continues today as low center tracks well to
the west of Lower Michigan. Once again there is not much to focus
convection despite another day of modest instability. Low or
slight chance POPs will cover it through tonight.

The low moves north of the Lakes on Sunday with weak sfc cold
front coming through in the afternoon around the diurnal peak of
instability. Instability and shear profiles are not really that
impressive so the severe threat is limited. MUCAPES are generally
around 1000 j/kg and 0 to 6 km shear is only around 25 knots
during the expected time of the event.

Once the storms go through, drier and slightly cooler air moves in
Sunday night and Memorial Day looks to be a pretty nice day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Temperatures will continue to average around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal through at least the middle portion of next week. There is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday well out ahead of an
approaching upper level disturbance and cold front.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Wednesday
through Wednesday night along and out ahead of the cold front and as
an upper level trough moves east into the Great Lakes region. A
slightly cooler and drier airmass should move in behind that system
for late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Vfr conditions will continue overnight with a few lingering
showers at KMKG and possibly KGRR. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will increase in coverage Saturday afternoon and
could affect any of the terminals through the afternoon and early
evening and cause brief reductions to MVFR/IFR in heavier showers
and storms. Showers will linger through Saturday evening but
conditions should remain predominantly VFR at all the terminals.


Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Winds and waves will increase on Saturday and there could be some
gusts to 25 knots at times into Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms
are possible through Sunday as well. The stronger winds should
prevent widespread fog from forming.


Issued at 108 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

River levels across the area are near to just above their expected
values for this time of year. Precipitation of up to an inch is
possible over the next week. Convection through the weekend will
produce localized heavy rainfall. Rises will mainly be confined
to smaller creeks and streams and should not reach flood levels.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Laurens
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