Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 171851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
151 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017


Issued at 140 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A storm system moving through the Great Lakes will bring rain and
freezing rain to the area into mid morning. As the system moves
out of the area later today some showers are possible. High
pressure will bring dry conditions with slow clearing Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Dry weather with warmer than normal
temperatures are expected into Friday.


Issued at 747 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

I expunged the thunderstorms from the forecast this morning as
the storms have weekend to just rain showers. The main area of
showers should be out of the area by 10 am. I would expect just
scattered showers the rest of the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

The primary issue is of course the threat for freezing rain. Then
the secondary threat is thunderstorms this morning as the surface
low crosses the area.

The area of below freezing temperatures had rapidly decreased over
the past few hours and our meso-net obs show only area east and
north of Big Rapids being at or below freezing. County dispatch
indicated only back roads were really icy in most of the headline
counties. So I ended the headlines in all areas where temperatures
were already above freezing. The rest of the area will see
temperatures rise above freezing by mid morning.

The surface low as just south of the Chicago area at 3 am this
morning and will track nearly eastward along I-94 this morning.
reaching the Detroit area by noon. There is an area of
thunderstorms just north of center of the surface low under and
area of enhanced colder cloud tops. Model sounding show some weak
but workable instability (200 to 400 j/kg of most unstable cape)
in that area. The 09z RAP model and the SPC 3 hour calibrated
thunderstorm forecast all show this area of thunderstorms crossing
the I-94 to I-96 area this morning. So I updated the grids to
include the treat of thunderstorms.

As for the rain, once the surface low is east of the area the rain
should end and I expect scattered showers into this evening.
High pressure should follow Wednesday bringing a slow decrease in
the clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A rather unusual long term period for this time of year...where
normally we see some of the coldest air of the season.  This period
features no snow and no surge of cold air from Thursday night
through Monday. Not January-like at all.

H8 temps hold around +5C throughout the extended period allowing
daytime temperatures to get into the 40s each day. A fairly cloudy
period will also keep overnight lows mild, mainly in the 30 to 35
degree range.

A weak surface low is progged to move across the Southern Great
Lakes and could spread some light rain into Southerly Lower MI
Friday into Friday night.  Then much of the weekend appears dry. A
higher chance of rain should develop into Sunday afternoon/evening
as a southern stream stacked low moves across the OH Valley.  This
could become a fairly steady rain maker due to it`s slow movement,
with the rain continuing into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

We are looking at an extended period of LIFR/VLIFR conditions for
most of the next 24 hour period at all of the terminals. These
conditions are currently in place, and they extend back upstream
across Wisconsin and beyond. Some slight improvement is occurring
across the I-94 corridor with a bit more of a wind there on the
srn periphery of the low. This will likely persist until this
evening when winds will diminish again. The ceilings and
visibilities will drop at that point again.

There will only be slight improvement toward the end of this fcst
period as high pressure starts to build in and we get some diurnal
mixing taking place. Better improvement in the conditions will
likely take place after 18z Wed.


Issued at 747 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

No headlines needed at this point and may not be needed until this
coming weekend.


Issued at 151 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Monday to Tuesday rain totaled 0.5 to 1.25 inches across the area.
Runoff into already swollen rivers will be efficient due to frozen
and saturated soil. Fortunately, warmer temperatures the rest of
the week will allow ice to melt and should eventually alleviate
the flooding situation at Robinson Township. The Looking Glass
river near Eagle and the Maple River near Maple Rapids are being
monitored for rises to Minor Flood Stage. Several other rivers
above bankfull are expected to rise but should have less
significant impacts to property. The next chances for rain will be
Friday and early next week.




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