Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 251738
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
138 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Wet weather will continue into early next week as low pressure
slowly approaches Lower Michigan from the southwest. Temperatures
will be held into the 40s today as clouds and showers become
widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Model continuity was good so few changes were made in the near
term. Likely to categorical POPs through the period with some
wavering in the coverage of showers as low center approaches.

Temperature forecast is also fairly consistent to prior forecast
as clouds and showers will prevent mixing today of shallow cold
air that advected in Friday evening with low level northeast flow.
Coolest conditions will be across the northeast forecast zones
where maxes today will be hard pressed to get out of the 30s. Do
not see any issues with freezing rain as sfc temps should remain
above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An unsettled and showery pattern will continue Monday night as a
trough of low pressure continues to bring more showers. Low pressure
over the Arklatex region will move northeast along a frontal
boundary and perhaps bring more numerous showers to our southern
fcst area Monday night. However a consensus of latest medium range
guidance now suggests that the steadier pcpn Monday night into
Tuesday will stay south of our fcst area across IN/OH.

Dry weather will finally return Tuesday through midweek as a high
pressure ridge builds in from the north. The next low pressure
system will bring a chance of showers as early as late Wednesday
night with a better chance for rain Thursday through Friday as a
southern Plains low pressure system moves northeast into the lower
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Temperatures will return to
near normal for this time of year through the long range forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

IFR conditions prevail across the taf sites and that should
continue to be the case into the evening hours with periods of
showers that may lower visibility`s below 2 miles briefly
(locally heavy rain showers). Those heavier rain showers should
for the most part be near the US-131 taf sites not as much for
I-69 taf sites. An area of elevated instability moves northward
over the western and central CWA this evening so I put VCTS to
cover that potential. There may be a break in the showers for a
time between 06z and 09z but then the showers with the main system
coming out will move in. The I-94 taf sites may see conditons
improve to MVFR by 15z or so Sunday as the warmer air moves back
northward. The could result in additional thunderstorms after 18z
over the I-69 taf sites.

BOTTOM LINE...IFR through at least 12z at all taf sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 717 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight.
Decided to cut back the end time of the SCA to 5 AM to match up
better with advisory to the north.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A wet pattern will continue through much of the next seven days
with multiple rain events taking place. Rainfall totals over the
next week will generally be in the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range. This
will result in rises on area rivers with some area rivers reaching
bankfull starting late this weekend and continuing at bankfull
potentially through the end of next week. Significant river
flooding is not anticipated with the amount of rainfall that is
expected over the next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...Maczko
MARINE...Ostuno


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