Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 040729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT AND LOW
HUMIDITY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE POPS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR TODAY...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST ZONES. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
THE UP OF MICHIGAN AT 07Z WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BIG UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE RESULTING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. LEFT OUT
THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE A
COUPLE LIGHTNING STROKES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THURSDAY...THEIR SEEMS TO BE A DEVELOPING CONSENSUS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO LOWS...ONE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH SHOULD MOVE IN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A SOMEWHAT WETTER AND NOT AS
COOL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE COMING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ON FRIDAY.  THE MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A BETTER SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS WAVE.  BEST MOISTURE
SEEMS TO POOL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER WHERE POPS WHERE INCREASED FOR
BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND ON FRIDAY
TO MENTION THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.

THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE COMING
THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...FAVORING CENTRAL LOWER AGAIN...AND
THERE MAY A BIT OF A LAKE SHADOW OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH A SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

TEMP TREND APPEARS TO BE A BIT WARMER.  I RAISED BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DUE TO MORE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.  DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY...BUT IT MAY COOL A BIT BY
MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL
BE OCCASIONAL MID CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 5-10K FT...BUT VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN SHOULD BE THE WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY ABOUT 16Z...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO WEST TONIGHT AND STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

WE HAVE SEEN RIVERS AND STREAMS RISE A BIT TODAY AFTER THE
BENEFICIAL RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NO ISSUES
ARE NOTED WITH ALL RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL VALUES.
VERY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A DRIER
PATTERN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...OSTUNO


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