Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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448
FXUS63 KGRR 292319
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
719 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

The region will continue to see slightly cooler and drier air move
in tonight.  We will see pleasant weather tonight into Memorial Day.
Most of Tuesday will also remain nice, but an isolated shower will
be possible toward the end of the day.  A better chance of showers
and a few storms will arrive Tuesday night as a cold front heads
toward the area.

The front will slowly move through so the chances of rain may linger
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Dry weather is then expected for the
latter part of the week, with the next chance of rain holding off
until Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

The weak cold front and mid level short wave will continue across
the CWA this afternoon and early evening.  Most of the shower/storm
activity will move east and north of SW MI before 00z.

This frontal passage will lead us into a very pleasant weather
regime for tonight through Tuesday morning as high pressure builds
in.  Humidity levels were already dropping this afternoon.  Along
with less humidity max temps will be a couple degrees either side of
80 for Monday and Tuesday making for ideal late spring weather.

We will see an increase in clouds Tuesday afternoon.  But due to dry
low levels, the lack of much instability, and a low level jet that
only moves into Western WI, I have tweaked pops down slightly. It
appears only a few brief dying light showers may make it across the
lake by the end of the day.

Somewhat better chances of showers and storms arrives Tuesday night
as a cold front moves across WI through the night.  However the
above mentioned LLJ heads NE into the U.P. by the daybreak Wed, so
we never see good dynamics move toward us.  Therefore no severe
weather is expected with this front, but with deeper moisture
advection, we should at least see some widely scattered showers and
a few storms into the night.  Best chance will be across the NW
portion of the CWA where up to a quarter inch of rain will be
possible by daybreak Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

We will see rain chances increase on Wednesday, with the most likely
chance of rain coming Wednesday night. Strengthening srly flow on
Wed will bring better moisture north into the area after a couple of
relatively dry days. This moisture will interact with the frontal
system moving through, bringing showers and a few storms to much of
the area Wednesday night. The rain would move out likely early on
Thu as the front moves east of the area.

It now looks like we will see limited rain chances through Friday,
although the chance is not zero. Some short wave ridging builds in
on Friday.

The new upper air pattern consisting of NW flow over the Great Lakes
will bring rain chances back for Sat into Sun along with cooler
temperatures. The rain chances do not look like a washout, but the
chance will remain much of next weekend with some periods of sun
also. Timing is a bit problematic as is usually the case with short
waves diving SE.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

With a drier airmass moving in...clouds will be kept to a minimum
through the period. Vfr weather is forecasted to prevail. There
are some showers in Wisconsin...but they are dissipating and not
expected to be an impact to the Taf sites.

The wind will diminish this evening as the mixing decreases. As a
result the Tafs will feature gusty winds only for another hour or
so.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

2 to 4 foot waves are still likely north of Grand Haven into early
this evening.  But then conditions will calm down as the WSW winds
gradually diminish.  Any swimmers and boaters should be prepared for
rougher seas, but still below small craft criteria.

The rest of the short term, through Tuesday night, appears much
calmer.  Westerly winds on Monday will become southerly by Tuesday,
but winds speeds will mainly be 15 kts or less.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

River levels across the area are near normal values for this time of
year. Precipitation of a quarter inch up to three quarters of an inch
is possible over the next week, mainly on Wednesday and Thursday.
River rises will mainly be confined to smaller creeks and streams
and should not reach flood levels.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK



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