853
FNUS73 KMPX 151035
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Pool 9 Rx...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on May 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Pool 9 Rx, expect temperatures in the low 70s by the
afternoon under cloudy skies. Southeast winds at around 10mph
during the afternoon will slowly shift westerly as showers arrive
by the evening. RH at ignition time which is near the minimum for
the day looks to settle in the low 40s percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................42 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 12 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds around 12
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /82100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /91600 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY MC  CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF LKY
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............71  71  71  70  69  66  63  62  60  60  59  58
RH..............42  42  41  41  44  48  54  60  64  67  75  80
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  10  10  10  10  12  12  10  12  10
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  17  15  16  16  17  18  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 5.9 5.7 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  15  15  15  14  15  14  13  13  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers
                    overnight.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    south around 10 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after 3 am.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (52100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hasenstein
Requested by...Kevin Berens
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414081.1/MPX
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.berens@state.mn.us